bdy0627
Active Member
Yes, I can say that my AP1 Model S has improved since Nov 2016.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
To be clear, he never promised to release FSD in 5 months...just that the NY - LA "hands-free" demo would be in 5 months.
Great post, and well with, I certainly agree.
Trying to predict how the stock will move based on these excitations kind of comes down to wether the market cares more about scary EPS or exciting (hopefully) production and sales volumes. I'm thinking this means a pretty general slow downward trend until delivery numbers, followed by 5% or so sell offs after earnings as algos and sheep traders overreact to fully expected but negative EPS numbers. Perhaps selling OTM calls would be a good strategy over the next few months ( starting after the 28th of course).
This reminds me of the DTU strategy this board came to like last year which worked out very nicely for many of us.
Any thoughts on these musings or possible strategies to play the next few months with short term trades?
The other thing to consider is guidance on the earnings reports. Yeah Q4 EPS might be terrible but if they guide for Q1 of 25k S+X and 50k 3's which implies 200% YoY unit growth, the market will be willing to forgive some bad EPS. But overall I agree with your train of thought even though I am a little leveraged at the moment.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will be higher next thurs than today. Something about a sexy new model coming into all of our lives. Not an advice.
Shorts have put in a major effort to dampen price this week. But if the SP is looking good tmrw afternoon, would you rather short or cover going into the week of the 28th?
What the shorts are up to (in my humble opinion)
SBenson brought up an interesting point regarding likely weakness in Q2 and Q3 ERs. This perceived weakness is the likely motivator for shorts being so willing right now to engage in various short selling tactics. They recognize that without active intervention, the stock price will run up with the approach of the Model 3 reveal, and they are trying to minimize the run up so that they can profit from any weakness in the SP during the months when Model 3's ramp up is still sluggish and the financials look distressing.
The counterpoint to this view is the view held by many longs that Model 3 is so important to the future of Tesla that if it is received well and the ramp up stays on schedule, the short term financials won't matter so much.
Today's trading shows both viewpoints being expressed by traders. There was no news no macro trend that suggested that TSLA should slide downward after high noon. Rather, the volume dipped and shorts simply took advantage of this low volume to sell the stock lower. Unfortunately for them, once TSLA went red, there was a countermove by longs anticipating an upswing for the Model 3 reveal, and the stock price made a nice climb back up to 328+.
Which view best reflects the future? The truth is that we don't know. Shorts will be pulling out the stops, I suspect, to minimize the climb between now and July 28, but they lack the underlying negative sentiment of the SolarCity Merger prelude that allowed their tactics to be so successful up until November of last year. There's also the real possibility that once Model 3 is revealed, received good reviews, and is ramping up, big organizations will start acquiring TSLA again, and then it is off to the races for the stock price. Due to the uncertainty of the short term, however, SBenson's suggestion of avoiding heavy leveraging right now looks like a good one. You want to be in the stock and benefit when it takes off, but the possibility of softness for several months is very real too. I have found a position I am comfortable riding well into 2018, come swan dives or Falcon 9 upward climbs. I'm ready for either.
SBenson brought up an interesting point regarding likely weakness in Q2 and Q3 ERs. This perceived weakness is the likely motivator for shorts being so willing right now to engage in various short selling tactics. They recognize that without active intervention, the stock price will run up with the approach of the Model 3 reveal, and they are trying to minimize the run up so that they can profit from any weakness in the SP during the months when Model 3's ramp up is still sluggish and the financials look distressing.
The counterpoint to this view is the view held by many longs that Model 3 is so important to the future of Tesla that if it is received well and the ramp up stays on schedule, the short term financials won't matter so much.
Today's trading shows both viewpoints being expressed by traders. There was no news no macro trend that suggested that TSLA should slide downward after high noon. Rather, the volume dipped and shorts simply took advantage of this low volume to sell the stock lower. Unfortunately for them, once TSLA went red, there was a countermove by longs anticipating an upswing for the Model 3 reveal, and the stock price made a nice climb back up to 328+.
Which view best reflects the future? The truth is that we don't know. Shorts will be pulling out the stops, I suspect, to minimize the climb between now and July 28, but they lack the underlying negative sentiment of the SolarCity Merger prelude that allowed their tactics to be so successful up until November of last year. There's also the real possibility that once Model 3 is revealed, received good reviews, and is ramping up, big organizations will start acquiring TSLA again, and then it is off to the races for the stock price. Due to the uncertainty of the short term, however, SBenson's suggestion of avoiding heavy leveraging right now looks like a good one. You want to be in the stock and benefit when it takes off, but the possibility of softness for several months is very real too. I have found a position I am comfortable riding well into 2018, come swan dives or Falcon 9 upward climbs. I'm ready for either.
Closed over $330. I thought the shorties would do anything to stop that from happening.
Edit: Read wrong time. Closed at $329.92. I guess shorts win again.
Edit: Read wrong time. Closed at $329.92. I guess shorts win again.
I appreciate yours and everyone else's commentary. I just can't help wonder if we might be giving shorts too much credit. Are they really trying to drive the stock down in such a coordinated effort? @Curt Renz 's video on how hedge funds can manipulate the SP is compelling, but I can't help but be a bit skeptical that day in and day out the shorts are constantly doing this. Seems like they would run out of capital. I have to think that a significant amount of investors are just waiting on the sidelines until after July 28 and Aug 2. I think some of them are worried of a repeat of the last dip, so they want a strong positive indicator before buying. Maybe this wait and see approach by investors is what is making the SP so easily manipulated by the shorts, hence they don't need too much capital to do so... so I guess I basically agree with you. Whatever, it was good to write this all out to organize my thoughts.
Edit: fixed grammar
Last edited:
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Rats, you mean I shouldn't have sold every TSLA share I own as a result of being "terrified" after reading today's screed from The Alley, er, I mean, The Street?
Tesla Faces 3 Serious Issues That Should Terrify Any Investor Looking to Buy the Stock
Ha, just kidding. I'll sell when the price hits $999 or higher. And then only if it's a reasonable time to sell.
Tesla Faces 3 Serious Issues That Should Terrify Any Investor Looking to Buy the Stock
Ha, just kidding. I'll sell when the price hits $999 or higher. And then only if it's a reasonable time to sell.
DurandalAI
Member
Short term, I anticipate another "sell the news" event after the 28th, and another after ER. If ramp up for M3 continues as planned/announced by Musk, then I think we will make our way back towards ATH.
So you are one of those weak longs?
I'll sell when they've gotten to the point where they literally can't get exponentially bigger than they are.
EM said everything can go electric besides rockets. For all we know, we're probably 10 years from electric Tesla planes, 20 years from electric Tesla aircraft carriers. I wouldn't name an exit price point now if you're super long.
For the most part, I think many shorts use very short-term trading to sell when it is high and then buy back, often on the same or next day. Using such techniques, shorts can negatively affect the stock price without getting committing to deeper and deeper holdings. Capping is profitable for shorts, as long as it works, mandatory morning dips can be profitable, and low-volume dips into the afternoon is more likely used to support existing short positions than create an immediate profit.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
