2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[neroden]

I must confess I did buy my very last lot at the open this AM at $380.25
I had already realized my total share count that I was aiming for as of open Friday so I didn't need to buy anymore today however the charts looked so good that I Couldn't resist it. I'm done buying finally
My untested hypothesis is that TSLA goes anywhere from a low of $676 to a high of $2300 to $2800 by February or March of 2019
In either case I'm satisfied now that I got my full line

I bet you you're going to buy more. I bet you can't resist.

 

[dc_h]

Are you long or short? It's quite obvious that you are a short, but last time you mentioned that you are long, I am not so sure anymore.

MU tends to be long TSLA and short Tesla. Technicals Support the rally, but fundamentals only support the price if you believe 50% yoy until 2025, which most of us do.

 

[neroden]

You could move the money to a self directed or "checkbook" IRA and use the IRA directly for the purchase.

Yeah, if you're buying something which is within the list of things which it is legal for IRAs to own (there's a prohibited list) you could have your IRA own it. Weird paperwork but it can be right for some situations. Still requires selling something because IRAs can't go into debt.

 

[neroden]

umm... shouldn't they listen to both?... do you think Elon is your friend?... he's the CEO of a publicly traded company. his #1 objective by law is to make the share price go up... are you suggesting that investors should only listen to him?

Myusername: you are incorrect about the legal obligations of CEOs. Look it up some time.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Rolled shares into leaps. Truth is awesome

I got a little more agressive. Sold 1000 shares, bought 112 contracts of Jan 2018 $380 calls. Plan to set time delayed bull free spread, at which point, hopefully, will buy my shares back with the proceeds of selling the short leg and just keep the spread into the expiration to capture the full spread.

 

[racer26]

Since we all seem to me moving today, I rolled my J18 $150 call up and out to a J19 $250. Seems I can use the extra cash for something else. Its not making money as fast as it could be.

 

[Zaxxon]

Agreed, that thought just occurred to me too. Winning it now would serve to do nothing but increase the waiting list. Tesla is trying to anti-sell it. Winning it next year can help maintain demand after the reservation queue is chipped away at.

Will it be eligible next year? "Vehicles must be new or 'substantially changed.'" The NACotY site is vague on details (in fact, that quote is the sum total of the available details), but it seems the car is eligible this year (it's new this year) and would need to be 'substantially changed' next year to be eligible then.

 

[Muaddid]

...would need to be 'substantially changed' next year to be eligible then.

Would AWD be enough ?

 

[madodel]

AAPL up, TSLA down. Previously it was TSLA up, AAPL down.

 

[Reciprocity]

nobody questions that they won't *some day*... what they question is that they will hit 20 million/year in Feb of 2019 to justify a $465b market cap... sounds crazy?... just start reading here:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

@TrendTrader007 "I really believe that TSLA has an extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019 which is approximately 18.5 months from now"

7 likes, 2 loves, 1 helpful and 1 informative.

you guys are lost in your minds on what you think is "value".

There is absolutely now reason to believe that Tesla will not hit volume production on the order of at a minimum of 2x that of S+X

This year. And that is a minimum. As bad as Tesla was in ramping S/X, they still managed to ramp them to decent numbers in 6 months. Simpler car, A-Team at Top Tier suppliers both act to magnify the acceleration by 2x S/X.

 

[Zaxxon]

Would AWD be enough ?

Certainly possible, especially since we're bound to get a bunch of software-related changes, plus air suspension, likely a P model, etc. One could make a case that in total that merits 'substantial change.' I'm just pointing out that it's not a given that Tesla can hold the car out this year and then submit it next year.

 

[Irishjugg]

Yeah, if you're buying something which is within the list of things which it is legal for IRAs to own (there's a prohibited list) you could have your IRA own it. Weird paperwork but it can be right for some situations. Still requires selling something because IRAs can't go into debt.

Right, you would use the IRA for the up front payment on the real estate and financing or an eventual refinance to pay the IRA back later if you wanted the clean cut.

 

[dalalsid]

nope... they should listen to everyone... not do what everyone says... but listen to them.

That is the most worthless advice ever. Go listen to Alex Jones, JP, Bertel Schmitt or that dude from BoA - https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/john-murphy

 

[aubreymcfato]

OT, but I wanted to share:
I have shares in the (high) 2 digits, and was quite satisfied, until I learned that for an error of my fiscalist
I owe a lot of money in taxes (hurray...).
End result: I'm not touching my shares, and will solve with some loan and postponing some big buys (of course, in the meantime I bought a house...).
My position is tiny, but I'm all in... and that's OK. I'm quite happy actually to be in as much as I can.
I feel like I'm leveraged as TT007, just with 1000x less shares ;-)

 

[Richgoogol]

Hasn't found a bottom yet

 

[austinEV]

Hasn't found a bottom yet

I don't know, looks like its settling around 275 which is where we were most of the day on Friday.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I don't know, looks like its settling around 275 which is where we were most of the day on Friday.

Hmm...
Pretty sure that 2 should have been 3.

 

[EinSV]

I don't know, looks like its settling around 275 which is where we were most of the day on Friday.

*cough*

Edit: @vgrinshpun ninja'd me.

 

[DaveT]

Oh, yes, the key point of a pledged asset line is that the rates are a lot lower than the margin loan rates (unless you have a SUPER HUGE margin loan). The only downside is...


...indeed, margin interest is *sometimes* tax-deductible and pledged asset line interest is never deductible (in the US).

I looked up the tax rules for margin interest in the US -- you actually have to prove that you used the margin loan to generate investment income. Seemed like the IRS might question a deduction if you were doing something like taking money out to spend it. Also the deduction rules for investment interest have an awful lot of paperwork and you end up not getting the full amount deducted (thank you, itemized deduction limitations, etc.).

Are you sure about that? I thought as long as you used the loan for investment purposes the interest you pay was tax-deductible.

Now, the one restriction on a pledged asset line is that you can't use the loan to buy stock. So it's strictly for "I was thinking about borrowing money to do something totally different than buying stock".

My bank/broker was fine with me taking money from my asset-backed line of credit and using it to purchase stock/options.

 

[Richgoogol]

I don't know, looks like its settling around 275 which is where we were most of the day on Friday.

And which Friday are we talking about here?