2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[EinSV]

Orders for Model S and Model X have also been increasing, both leading up to and following the Model 3 handover event. In July, our weekly net order rate for these vehicles was about 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate. In addition, although too early to draw strong conclusions, we are seeing an even further increase in net Model S orders since the July 28th event. This growing demand gives us even more reason to expect increased deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of this year.

Lots of great stuff in the letter but this is huge short-term de-risking news and I think very unexpected.

 

[aznt1217]

Great letter! I love how they ended with the Semi

 

[EinSV]

Solar Roofs being installed at employees' homes. That's a small but nice surprise!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

"We officially began taking orders for Solar Roof in Q2 and have recently started installations"

 

[brian45011]

Deposits down $13 MM; ZEV credits up $100MM. Inventory up about $222 MM(about 10%). AP and Accrued Liabilities up ~$335 MM (about 10%) Something for everyone.

"Total capital expenditures of $1.5 billion in the first half of 2017 were lower than expected primarily due to the timing of milestone-based cash payments." Appropriately cryptic.

 

[theschnell]

How would SP react if the loss this quarter is somewhat small, say $500 million or less and Tesla's cash position was still $2 billion or more? Because I think that is a realistic possibility and I think stock would possibly rise in that scenario. I think I may buy back in to 100% today.

I am officially an idiot for not acting on this at 11 am today.

Edit: At least I am in at 75%

 

[MartinAustin]

Do we know why yet? Looks like everything is in line with expectations. I suspect this must just be relief rallying (all the bad news is out, so the stock can go up now)

It appears to me to be simply that they lost less money than people expected, and revenues were higher than people expected.

Tesla are definitely avoiding the guidance nightmares of old, though. Remember all the stress we went through agonizing over the ridiculously high deliveries goals Elon would put out? Which they amazingly almost met, in most cases, but the stock fell as a result, despite double-digit corporate growth. Now, unless I am wrong, the only guidance we have is "we will sell more in the second half than we did in the first half." And no guidance for 2018 yet (perhaps too early for that, but I expect they will get plenty of questions during the CC and we should listen carefully for deliberate lack of clarity, lol). This is a great way to keep analysts and FUDsters off their backs.

WSJ just reported:
16:37 ET - Tesla (TSLA) didn't end up spending as much to prepare for production of the Model 3 in the first half as expected. In May, Tesla said it planned for $2B in capital expenditures but ended up spending $959M in 2Q after laying out $553M during 1Q. The lower than expected spending was primarily because of the timing of milestone-based cash payments, Tesla said.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Up a cool $500k+ after hours
Thank you for shorting


Sorry, spoke too soon
Make it $700k+
Thank you very much for shorting
Please come back to Shortville and short again

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is a very positive report. It may mark the beginning of a short squeeze in the coming weeks.

 

[joefee]

I am officially an idiot for not acting on this at 11 am today.

Edit: At least I am in at 75%

You're not alone...so much for buying @ 308!

 

[TrendTrader007]

Now I can buy a whole bunch of MS+ MX+ M3s
I love the shorts

 

[elasalle]

vs. expected $1.82

Thanks for correction
The alert (heading) on my iPhone did say expected 1.28(rechecked), but article inside had correct value of 1.82

 

[Irishjugg]

Because I think continued downward movement is significantly more likely than upwards or flat and I'd rather be straightforward and wrong than pretend I have a less convicted view and be "right."

Well, I suck

 

[esk8mw]

Deposits down $13 MM; ZEV credits up $100MM. Inventory up about $222 MM(about 10%). AP and Accrued Liabilities up ~$335 MM (about 10%) Something for everyone.

Deposits are down because vehicles in transit were much lower at quarter end. They have announced accelerated Model S/X orders and ever-increasing Model 3 reservations. Sorry, this bear talking point is officially dead. Completely obliterated. As I've been saying for over a year now.

Inventory is up because they increased the loaner fleet, Model X in showrooms and using the highest end models to do so. It's right there in the letter. Try and spin it negatively if you want, I guess.

AP is up because of the timing of milestone payments and YUGE Model 3 investment. Again, crystal clear and not a negative. $3 billion on hand. No talk of cap raises.

This is a SOLID report. Not a damn thing available for bears to latch onto in a logical way. Not that it will deter them.

 

[tlo]

cnbc .alert .. $1.33 loss vs expected loss of $1.28

Expected loss was $1.82.

 

[supratachophobia]

I have a naive question. When you all talk about after hours trading, can anyone do that or do you have to be a brokerage house or something?

 

[Earlian]

Special thanks at TT! You made my day.

 

[Tslynk67]

That is only $20K. The quantity and far out strike makes it look like someone knows something.

Indeed...

 

[Lhan]

Holy Moly- Tesla Fiesta !!!

 

[Richgoogol]

Joseph Rubinchak on Twitter
You can just taste the blood already That's just too desperate!