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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jesse Livermore recommended waiting for the price movement to actually start before investing or trading.
Steve and Einsv made a pretty convincing aurgument that the 2012-2013 surge was not a short squeeze.
Tesla Autopilot: head of software Chris Lattner leaves, Tesla hires new head of AI and computer vision
With the 'slog' to catch up to AP1 I guess this is to be expected but at the same time Chris wasn't part of the team for that long (6 months) can't imagine he had enough time.
With the 'slog' to catch up to AP1 I guess this is to be expected but at the same time Chris wasn't part of the team for that long (6 months) can't imagine he had enough time.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
My totally speculative guess is that while Chris is a brilliant programmer, AI and computer vision just aren't his specialties, and AP really needs a vision/AI expert in that role.
Looks like the new hire is not only an expert in both but a top notch expert at that.
I have never been particularly good at trading or timing. Having said that, when I initiated the position, right when Elon tweeted about shorts, I felt like we were in the midst of a short covering rally (not particularly a "squeeze"). I wanted to get on the ride and make a few extra bucks. But as fate would have it the stock roughly flattened out for more than a week now. So I gave up.
Given that it was a leveraged position through margin I didn't want to stay on that way for too long. In my very simplistic view, staying on margin for too long means exposing oneself for negative shocks for too long. Just didn't want to take that risk. I got out with neither profits nor losses. Still will be very happy with the existing core position if stock zooms up further. If it slides down I can ride it as long as it takes.
However I'm always interested in watching and (hopefully) learning. Very interested to see how the stock rally and short covering play out going into the M3 final unveil.
I thought the same when he was hired (swift language lead != AP lead) but bought into the idea he was a great SW team leader that would draw talent. Either way not a good look to hire someone for such a high profile role to see them leave in less than a year.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I didn't like pricing action today. And it's typical that SP drops after new revolutionary product is unveiled, as hype subsides. True gains in earnest start months afterward and go for years.
So I don't know if we've seen everything TSLA had to give us before reveal, but it's a possibility. My general feel is that we have one more last hurrah $70 rally left before "sell the news" correction.
I sold today my 5% trading stake with ~$10 gain. Last time I did that, sold it at $314, before $10 drop and subsequent $80 run, so maybe we see repeat
If I discover significant correlations btw. my actions and SP making fun of me, I'll ask for donations Expect a dip when deliveries are reported? Sentiment seems to be that they've likely fallen but is that already factored into the price?
Runarbt
Active Member
I didn't like pricing action today. And it's typical that SP drops after new revolutionary product is unveiled, as hype subsides. True gains in earnest start months afterward and go for years.
So I don't know if we've seen everything TSLA had to give us before reveal, but it's a possibility. My general feel is that we have one more last hurrah $70 rally left before "sell the news" correction.
I sold today my 5% trading stake with ~$10 gain. Last time I did that, sold it at $314, before $10 drop and subsequent $80 run, so maybe we see repeat
"Be fearfull when others are gready and greedy when others are fearfull"
So based on SBenson and Zhelko, I increased my position.:-D
M3 release is what we have been waiting for since masterplan1 was initiated.;-)
(To be fair, you just adjust ur positionsa bit, so maybe not fearfull.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Wonder what we will see next, $355 or $385.
Could be 125K MS/MX and no M3, that would not be very happy. I'm hoping for 110-120K MS/MX and 70-100K M3 for 180-220K total
mutle
Member
Might work out well for Chris though if he decides to return to Apple. You can keep seniority if you get hired back less than a year after quitting.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Moving up in pre-market. The Andrej Karpathy hire is being well received and rightly so - he's far more qualified for the job than Chris Lattner was. His skill set is tailor made for autonomous driving. And with the last name 'Karpathy' he was clearly destined to work on autopilot.
Uber being in total disarray is probably helping too. Travis Kalanick resigned.
Uber being in total disarray is probably helping too. Travis Kalanick resigned.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
One more estimate that is more optimistic than mine!
I agree with you; maybe slightly less on the upper end: 175-200k cars in 2017 sounds about right.
Tesla would need to refresh Model S/X in July to hit 120k in 2017. Remember that they're targeting 30% gross margin (i.e. no price drop soon).
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
I would ignore premarket action: often used to manipulate, and anyone with a few hundred shares can move the price.
TSLA is surprisingly illiquid (see bid/ask spread) for a large cap company.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Or maybe Andrew from Carpathian Mountains was destined to be a porter on mountain-climbing expeditions.
But sheer force of will changed destiny.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Oil has been tumbling the whole time Tesla has been rising. It's doubtful that the bearish correlation of the two will hold up this time.
Of course, any Tesla long who is worried about the price of oil driving Tesla down can easily hedge this perceived risk by shorting oil. We discuss this in the Shorting Oil thread.
DurandalAI
Member
Not to be contrarian, but I think that if that were the case, Tesla would have instead expanded Model S and X production through the rest of the Fremont factory, and started Model 3 production in a new factory. After all, if they could sell 500,000 Model S/X units a year, why would they NOT scale up? I think that demand for S & X is marginally above supply, which is a good thing, but your statement could hint that they can't produce more than 100,XXX Model S/X a year. (That's not what you said, but you get what I mean, not wanting to put words in your mouth.)
TLDR; If Tesla could sell 500,000 Model S & X a year, would they make them today or next year? Can Tesla (currently) sell 500,000 Model S & X a year? Likely not, so they're not making them as fast as they can "because that's what they've always done." Apologies if it sounds nit-picky, but I would argue that S&X are not only supply constrained but if expansion were large, would then be demand constrained.
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