2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Reciprocity]

Funny you ask: I haven't had a cable subscription for three years now.

When I say that, a lot of people assume I spend my leisure time watching Netflix.

I don't have wifi either.

When I say that, people go

Then I go

I spend my leisure time watching Elon Musk YouTube videos on my iPhone with my unlimited data plan.

And people think that Elon might be an alien.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Thanks to the profits generated by buying the dip after a very positive earnings event, which freed up some of my already very conservative low-cost margin level, I was able to add ~200 more shares to my ultra long-term TSLA holdings this morning.

I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank the paid shorts for keeping the stock down so I can continuously add shares at prices lower than I would have been able to otherwise.

I don't know how you sleep at night, but I sincerely appreciate your deplorable efforts.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Reminder to everyone:

At some point this week (maybe today?) Einhorn will be presenting at the SOHN conference, and he is short TSLA.

There's a good chance that he will be talking up his short even though this would be a very risky move for him as TSLA may also squeeze shorts the same week he presents a short thesis, especially after some of the related but indirect news that came out last night.

TSLA is likely to be very volatile this week.

You are hereby warned.

 

[MitchJi]

Hello!

For historic reasons I own some calls issued by Society General. I have an new account where I can buy calls from the TSLA Option Chain.

What do you think should I sell these:
SG-Zertifikate.de: Disclaimer

and buy these:
TSLA Option

?

They are both 350 calls on more or less the same date (Dec18, 2018 vs. Jan19, 2019). One contract of 100 costs about the same (4600 EUR = 5044 vs 4465 USD).

Do you think they perform differently? Is it worth selling the option certificates to buy call option?

J19 $350's are a lot less risky and have a lot more upside potential than J18's IMO. I don't know anything about the Society General Certificates but unless the CBO Calls are a lot more expensive they looks like a no brainer decision to me. An extra year of time value and they actually cost less!

 

[racer26]

I wish I understood why invariably whenever I make a buy or sell action, the market immediately moves in the opposite direction to what would be beneficial to me.

I mean, I'm usually right in the longer haul, but the first hour or two after I make a buy or sell is always painful.

 

[Mich]

J19 $350's are a lot less risky and have a lot more upside potential than J18's IMO. I don't know anything about the Society General Certificates but unless the CBO Calls are a lot more expensive they looks like a no brainer decision to me. An extra year of time value and they actually cost less!

It's just one month difference so it's not a no brainer... After posting this I see that the calls from the option chain are better for sure but I guess I will just keep what I have. Another reason for this is that I have a lot of 500 USD Dec 2019 which are not available at the option chain.

BTW, what is the right terminology for the "option chain calls"?

 

[jbcarioca]

Given my comments and those of others about ValueAnalyst'a contributions I thought to pertinent to say that I just subscribed.

 

[moe.salih]

I wish I understood why invariably whenever I make a buy or sell action, the market immediately moves in the opposite direction to what would be beneficial to me.

I mean, I'm usually right in the longer haul, but the first hour or two after I make a buy or sell is always painful.

Negativity bias - Wikipedia

 

[elasalle]

I wish I understood why invariably whenever I make a buy or sell action, the market immediately moves in the opposite direction to what would be beneficial to me.

I mean, I'm usually right in the longer haul, but the first hour or two after I make a buy or sell is always painful.

Could it be because you are trading in only high volatility stocks?

 

[elasalle]

Given my comments and those of others about ValueAnalyst'a contributions I thought to pertinent to say that I just subscribed.

Please share valuable gems from the subscribed account, that are missing here

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Given my comments and those of others about ValueAnalyst'a contributions I thought to pertinent to say that I just subscribed.

Thank you. I will do my best to add value to your investment process.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Reminder to everyone:

At some point this week (maybe today?) Einhorn will be presenting at the SOHN conference, and he is short TSLA.

There's a good chance that he will be talking up his short even though this would be a very risky move for him as TSLA may also squeeze shorts the same week he presents a short thesis, especially after some of the related but indirect news that came out last night.

TSLA is likely to be very volatile this week.

You are hereby warned.

As predicted, TSLA is very volatile today.

On twitter, someone said it is being presented as a short idea at SOHN, but I have not yet been able to verify this with a second source.

 

[Gerardf]

As predicted, TSLA is very volatile today.

On twitter, someone said it is being presented as a short idea at SOHN, but I have not yet been able to verify this with a second source.

Yes, by this guy. He also lost a lot of money with his Tesla short postion.
Guess how honest an 'analysis' he will present ?

Frustrated With Tesla and GM, David Einhorn Amps Up Pressure

"Einhorn said he also has a small short position in Tesla, which he said in an April 25 shareholder note was one of his biggest losers".

 

[neroden]

Moreover if someone is so good in their 'analysis/ research' or a total wizard in the markets they won't have to come promoting their services on this thread. They would make more than enough money investing/ trading the markets without having to tell the world how good their research is

Have I ever mentioned Nathanael's First Two Laws of Investment Advice, which I developed a while back? They're the reason I've been very uncomfortable with the entire concept of paid investment advice.

(1) If you're skilled enough to correctly identify an advisor who can beat the market, you can beat the market on your own
(2) If you hire an advisor who can beat the market, their fee will equal or exceed the amount by which they beat the market

They're not 100% true (for instance, you can hire people to do specific topical research on an hourly wage basis; or you might be able to hire an investment advisor who charges low prices because he likes you) but unfortunately they're great rules of thumb. :-(

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yes, by this guy. He also lost a lot of money with his Tesla short postion.
Guess how honest an 'analysis' he will present ?

Frustrated With Tesla and GM, David Einhorn Amps Up Pressure

"Einhorn said he also has a small short position in Tesla, which he said in an April 25 shareholder note was one of his biggest losers".

"small position"

It's funny how shorts are scaling back on their passion against Tesla.

 

[racer26]

Have I ever mentioned Nathanael's First Two Laws of Investment Advice, which I developed a while back? They're the reason I've been very uncomfortable with the entire concept of paid investment advice.

(1) If you're skilled enough to correctly identify an advisor who can beat the market, you can beat the market on your own
(2) If you hire an advisor who can beat the market, their fee will equal or exceed the amount by which they beat the market

They're not 100% true (for instance, you can hire people to do specific topical research on an hourly wage basis; or you might be able to hire an investment advisor who charges low prices because he likes you) but unfortunately they're great rules of thumb. :-(

They're also why most people unwilling to do their own research should just buy index funds and forget about it.

 

[neroden]

Is it possible all the shares being borrowed from Fidelity the week/days leading up to ER were then dumped by shorts the day after ER driving the 5% drop? The reason I ask is, I don't know what the rules are on stock shorting. Once one borrows the stock, does one have to sell it right away? My guess is no.

You can borrow and hold onto the stock without selling it, but...well... it has to be done by phone. It's not normal.

 

[neroden]

Hello!

For historic reasons I own some calls issued by Society General. I have an new account where I can buy calls from the TSLA Option Chain.

What do you think should I sell these:
SG-Zertifikate.de: Disclaimer

and buy these:
TSLA Option

?

They are both 350 calls on more or less the same date (Dec18, 2018 vs. Jan19, 2019). One contract of 100 costs about the same (4600 EUR = 5044 vs 4465 USD).

Do you think they perform differently? Is it worth selling the option certificates to buy call option?

I don't know much about the SG call "certificates". Is the strike denominated in dollars? Are they executable with actual delivery of stock (or are they cash-settled)?

If they're denominated in dollars and executable with actual delivery, I would say the choice depends on German tax law, bluntly, about which I know nothing. The difference between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019 expiration may have substantial tax implications (it would in the US) or it might not.

 

[neroden]

It's just one month difference so it's not a no brainer... After posting this I see that the calls from the option chain are better for sure but I guess I will just keep what I have. Another reason for this is that I have a lot of 500 USD Dec 2019 which are not available at the option chain.

BTW, what is the right terminology for the "option chain calls"?

They're calls traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. They're just "calls", but you can say "CBOE calls" if you want to distinguish them from foreign calls.

 

[Vad42]

I think ValueAnalyst adds value and I dont care that he shills for his day job. Easy enough to ignore if you have an issue. I wouldnt ever pay for this content, its kind of like paying for S3X, some people need to, others have the skills that pay the bills.

I would love to pay for S3X if I could afford it. I think there are likely a number members on this board who'll gladly pay for S3X. As soon as they can. I personally wouldn't because I can't afford it and 2 cars is going to be enough for me, but I can see people buying one of each.

Oh wait, did you mean something else?