2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

My only other advice is leave the link to your subscription site in your signature only. Pretend it doesn't even exist in your posts.

Noted, but it's clear to me at this point that the service idea, which I continue to strongly believe would have benefited us all, is a lost cause.

Like I said, I'll cut down to 1/1000th, only chime in when I see the discussion going completely in the wrong direction on topics in which I may have some experience, but otherwise not bother you guys.

 

[D-egg-O]

@TrendTrader007 that April 21st-ish QCOM gap....

 

[vgrinshpun]

The South Australia award should clarify the lay of the land soon:

"The South Australian state government said it had received 90 expressions of interest to set up battery storage by December with about 100 megawatts of capacity for one hour...
The state government has not yet set a date for when it will announce the results of the tender. Market leader Samsung SDI's batteries could be used by more than one of the bidders. Some of the others in the running are:

- Tesla Inc. Boss Elon Musk in March offered to install $25 million worth of battery storage within 100 days, and offered it for free if he missed the target.

- South Korea's LG Chem, partner undisclosed

- Zen Energy using batteries from U.S. firm Greensmith

- Privately owned Lyon Group with U.S. power company AES Corp

- Carnegie Clean Energy, Lend Lease Corp with Samsung SDI batteries

- Equis Energy, founded by bankers who worked for Macquarie Group's Korea infrastructure fund. Plans to build two solar power plants in Australia.

- redT Energy, vanadium energy storage machine maker working with an undisclosed partner

- Adelaide-based 1414 Degrees has put forward an alternative proposal for a long term grid scale project and is awaiting feedback, its executive chairman Kevin Moriarty told Reuters."

Factbox: Contenders for South Australia's battery tender

Also GE's new CGTs, that use batteries rather than combusting natural gas to spin the shafts while on stand-by, may also play a role.

"GE has developed a product it calls the LM6000 Hybrid EGT. It includes a 10 MW battery energy storage system, made by GE’s own battery storage offshoot Current, paired with an existing 50 MW gas turbine, also made by GE, and known as an LM6000.

Such a system would allow South Australia to install up to 5 such units to meet its targeted 250 MW, resulting in an extra 50 MW of instant response battery storage spread across the grid, ensuring grid stability, and with 250 MW of emergency capacity in case of a shortfall, or more baseload generators tripping." {The 5 CGTs could be distributed at different locations to relieve local grid congestion.}

S.A. government eyeing world-first gas plus battery storage units

GE and Southern California Edison Debut World’s First Battery-Gas Turbine Hybrid

I've been following this GE gambit for some time. They indeed came with a curious amphibian. While pairing relatively small battery (30 min. rating) with the gas turbine will save some fuel costs and provide fast response, it will increase capital costs at a time when BES is already cost competitive with gas peaker plants *without* an added expense of the paired battery. It also can not match battery storage as far as the support of the deep grid penetration of the renewables: gas turbine paired with small battery is useless in absorbing excess energy during renewable peak so it can be dispatched at the time of peak demand.

It looks like a desperate move by GE: they know that their gas turbine business is facing slow (initially) and steady decline.

So in case anybody is wondering if this is a silver bullet *solution* ("crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions"), it does not look promising at all.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There was not a lot of the activity at Fidelity with the shares available for borrowing on Friday: there were not a lot of shares made available by Fidelity, and whatever was available was depleted by 9:45am. There seem to be some covering in afternoon, but day as a whole was likely a net shorting day.

I am eagerly awaiting Monday morning. I think there is a fair chance of gap up.

 

[D-egg-O]

There was not a lot of the activity at Fidelity with the shares available for borrowing on Friday: there were not a lot of shares made available by Fidelity, and whatever was available was depleted by 9:45am. There seem to be some covering in afternoon, but day as a whole was likely a net shorting day.

I am eagerly awaiting Monday morning. I think there is a fair chance of gap up.

View attachment 226050

Is it possible all the shares being borrowed from Fidelity the week/days leading up to ER were then dumped by shorts the day after ER driving the 5% drop? The reason I ask is, I don't know what the rules are on stock shorting. Once one borrows the stock, does one have to sell it right away? My guess is no.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Is it possible all the shares being borrowed from Fidelity the week/days leading up to ER were then dumped by shorts the day after ER driving the 5% drop? The reason I ask is, I don't know what the rules are on stock shorting. Once one borrows the stock, does one have to sell it right away? My guess is no.

I do not have professional expertise in this, but I think it is unlikely that short sellers would carry borrowed shares for days without deploying them.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I didn't say I do great research. I said great research requires a lot of time and travel, so the only way for me to do great research is for enough people to sign up for the service, so that I can do the great research that is available to everyone, which would balance the playing field for retail investors, and even potentially decrease the influence shorts have on the stock.

So many here complain that they do not have the same access to great research that institutional investors do, but they do not want to pay even 1/1000th of what institutional investors pay. I find that... ironic.

This is clearly a lost cause. I'll scale back my posts to 1/1000th, not post any articles, and use the forum for sentiment analysis.

And y'all can keep complaining about the information disparity between the institutional vs. retail investors...

Gg hf

 

[CorneliusXX]

What makes you think I'm a "guy"

Sexism, maybe?

It was speciesism too. "Guy" implies that you are human. Tt is just the worst ummm...oh no I can't use any nouns anymore. Oh wait... responder. No that doesn't work, the er could imply that he's a man. Respondrix? I am confused.

 

[mickificki]

I've been following this GE gambit for some time. They indeed came with a curious amphibian. While pairing relatively small battery (30 min. rating) with the gas turbine will save some fuel costs and provide fast response, it will increase capital costs at a time when BES is already cost competitive with gas peaker plants *without* an added expense of the paired battery. It also can not match battery storage as far as the support of the deep grid penetration of the renewables: gas turbine paired with small battery is useless in absorbing excess energy during renewable peak so it can be dispatched at the time of peak demand.

It looks like a desperate move by GE: they know that their gas turbine business is facing slow (initially) and steady decline.

So in case anybody is wondering if this is a silver bullet *solution* ("crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions"), it does not look promising at all.

As someone who works with ge turbines... They suck. They cause us nothing but headaches.

Older ge models are a lot more reliable. Newer ones not so much. Big part of it is major cost cutting. They cut out all the knowledgeable experienced people with cheap younger ones.

 

[MitchJi]

So many here complain that they do not have the same access to great research that institutional investors do, but they do not want to pay even 1/1000th of what institutional investors pay. I find that... ironic.

I don't think anybody here wants or feels that they need better research or analysis. What we could use is access to the same sources of information that the analysts have. And if your research or analysis is great I haven't seen any signs of that. I have definitely seen signs of a lack of humility.

Nissan who shot itself in the foot when the LEAF first came out with their no-BMS, outside air batteries.

Let's not get carried away. They definitely had a good bms. What they didn't have was liquid cooling.

Noted, but it's clear to me at this point that the service idea, which I continue to strongly believe would have benefited us all, is a lost cause.

It's a lost cause here because none of us have seen anything worth paying for.

Like I said, I'll cut down to 1/1000th, only chime in when I see the discussion going completely in the wrong direction on topics in which I may have some experience, but otherwise not bother you guys.

I don't mind your posts. I think some of them were useful. What I don't like are the ones that are pushing your paid service. They ones that bother me the most are the ones claiming that we're missing out on your great paid research and analysis, because presumably we are not bright enough to recognize that fact.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I don't think anybody here wants or feels that they need better research or analysis. What we could use is access to the same sources of information that the analysts have. And if your research or analysis is great I haven't seen any signs of that. I have definitely seen signs of a lack of humility.


Let's not get carried away. They definitely had a good bms. What they didn't have was liquid cooling.

It's a lost cause here because none of us have seen anything worth paying for.

I don't mind your posts. I think some of them were useful. What I don't like are the ones that are pushing your paid service. They ones that bother me the most are the ones claiming that we're missing out on your great paid research and analysis, because presumably we are not bright enough to recognize that fact.

It's unclear why you're still pushing on this when I have already dropped the subject, twice now.

Sounds like you took great offense to me including one link that leads to my sign-up page since I'm assuming that's what you mean by "pushing your service." One link.

We spent pages and pages of this thread to stop me from including one link in less than 5% of my posts, some of which by your admission, were useful.

Good luck to you. You're gonna need it on Thursday afternoon, May 25.

 

[MitchJi]

TSLA is up $2.42 in the premarket .

Now up $2.78!

 

[Mich]

Hello!

For historic reasons I own some calls issued by Society General. I have an new account where I can buy calls from the TSLA Option Chain.

What do you think should I sell these:
SG-Zertifikate.de: Disclaimer

and buy these:
TSLA Option

?

They are both 350 calls on more or less the same date (Dec18, 2018 vs. Jan19, 2019). One contract of 100 costs about the same (4600 EUR = 5044 vs 4465 USD).

Do you think they perform differently? Is it worth selling the option certificates to buy call option?

 

[Runarbt]

TSLA is up $2.42 in the premarket .

Now up $2.78!

Another +12-13$ day today?;-)

 

[Richgoogol]

Evercore slapped Tesla with an outperform with a target of $330 as I have read on CNBC earlier

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I watched the Berkshire Hathaway live stream over the weekend, and I've been watching the Warren Buffett interview all morning.

Why aren't they asking about Tesla or Elon Musk?

It's probably the biggest threat to Berkshire Hathaway. The elephant in the room. Yet, not one question. Question or two on autonomous driving, but not a single question on Tesla or Elon Musk. How can a discussion on autonomous driving, or solar, or utilities, or energy, or transportation, or insurance happen without mentioning the name Elon Musk?

It's almost like they're playing the game Taboo.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Whoever just joined my service, thank you. I stand up and do a little dance every time someone joins...

I am now ~1/10th of the way to a self-sustaining service.

Maybe there is hope after all.

 

[Reciprocity]

I watched the Berkshire Hathaway live stream over the weekend, and I've been watching the Warren Buffett interview all morning.

Why aren't they asking about Tesla or Elon Musk?

It's probably the biggest threat to Berkshire Hathaway. The elephant in the room. Yet, not one question. Question or two on autonomous driving, but not a single question on Tesla or Elon Musk. How can a discussion on autonomous driving, or solar, or utilities, or energy, or transportation, or insurance happen without mentioning the name Elon Musk?

It's almost like they're playing the game Taboo.

haha, you expect TV analyst to be insightful and ask tough questions? Have you not watched any cable news in the last decade? oh Mr. Buffett do you still live the same house you bought 50 years ago for $80,000?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

haha, you expect TV analyst to be insightful and ask tough questions? Have you not watched any cable news in the last decade? oh Mr. Buffett do you still live the same house you bought 50 years ago for $80,000?

Funny you ask: I haven't had cable subscription for three years now.

When I say that, a lot of people assume I spend my leisure time watching Netflix.

I don't have wifi either.

When I say that, people go

Then I go

I spend my leisure time watching Elon Musk YouTube videos on my iPhone with my unlimited data plan.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There was pretty robust activity at Fidelity in pre-market. The availability of shares to short increased markedly as compared to the previous couple of trading days, and it looks like about 218k of shares were borrowed in pre-market.