Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Yep, the Hog Negativity Index remains at 2.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Yep, the Hog Negativity Index remains at 2.
The phrase 'earnings season' makes less and less sense to me these days. 5-6 weeks and we will be back on it already.
Ok, let's step back and look at the big picture... this stock has had a pattern, established over years, of rapid runs up followed by long, volatile declines. It's entirely possible to see this for the next 3-6 months until M3 production causes the next run up. Technicals may override fundamentals and if one looks at a 2-year chart it's tempting to conclude that.
I hate to sound like a bear but if one is trading the short and medium term, gotta be practical.
I have many thousands of shares worth of long exposure and sure hope this dip is brief... but reality is we maybe following the same old pattern of up and down until M3 production.
Edit: someone please tie me up to a tree and flog me for sounding like #myusername hahhah.
Last edited:
I very much like the price movement today. It is pretty much what I hoped for. I think there were a lot of short-term shorts piled on after the Q4 report, driving the price down. Now they are covering and taking their relatively small profit, while bulls take advantage of the depressed prices. But the long-term shorts are mostly still underwater, and they are holding on waiting for the bankruptcy proceedings that are not going to happen. I think we're going to see more steady price appreciation for the next few weeks, until the long-term shorts start panicking.
If it does, I think this time I will have wife's permission to back up the truck and buy, buy, buy... Since she was recently lamenting how she wished we bought more at 180 (I did point out to her that she was feeling nervous when I backed up the truck earlier at that SP).
Here's my current gut feel. Please understand that it is skewed by the fact I'm holing a rather large long position, while trying to see the downside potential in the short term.
At best -- 250 support, 280 resistance for months.... 17Q1 will be good, but it feels like the market expects spectacular, and it won't be spectacular. M3 production news will take 6 months to start being a massive driver.
At worst: macros top out now and go down from here... I think M3 production will still happen this year. SP tanks until then due to technicals plus macros.
In the short term, I'm holding some shares on margin at a loss vs current SP, and will write weekly calls against them to pay for the margin interest. There are very few things that will make me sell TSLA shares at a loss.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
How many trucks do you have?
MartinAustin
Active Member
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO when the AP2 software features start surpassing the AP1 by a substantial margin it will be big.
Happens to be the 0% for the day mark... Nasdaq is flat for the day... its consolidation all the way around.
Ok, maybe kind of late, but IIRC FOMC said they were going to raise rates on the 22nd. Big drop in SP (not just TSLA) yesterday (23rd). Not sure if this was mentioned earlier...
Let's us not forget that Tesla revenue is about to double; 7 billion in 2016 and 14 billion (~200,000 cars at ~$70,000/car) in 2017. Then double again in 2018 (~450,000 cars at ~$65,000/car). The constant growth of revenue (and cash flow) will pressure the stock price higher. The other major catalyst to the stock price will be the test drives and reviews of Model 3 once they are available (~4-5 months). The automobile industries greatest fears about the Model 3 are about to revealed. As with the luxury sedans and SUVs, I expect Model 3 will dominate all vehicles in its class, a further impetus to the stock price. This will be fun to watch.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I just wish I had many thousands of shares.
I wish I had a bunch less as of a few days ago haha....
Also, I said "worth of exposure" as options and margin are involved.... if I owned them outright I'd be more comfy.
I see what you are saying but i would argue that the technical analysis pattern just followed the underline trend of bullish exuberance and bearish depressive swings in the stock. Which was a exaggerated ebb and flow of the state of the company. The next two or three months don't seem like they will be dominated by bearish depressive attitudes. We've going to keep seeing major TE deals trickle in, PW2 shipments will start showing up in volume. Model 3 testing in the public will start leaking. AP2 is noticeably improving every two weeks or so and may reach parity with AP1 next month - a real accomplishment considering mobileye spent the better part of a decade developing their system and GM is going on two years behind with launching its basic TACC "super cruise".
"Many" is a minimum of 4, right?
"One, two, three, many"?- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
