Agree with your first sentence, but I think
1, Model 3 deliveries should be 1000-2000 in Q4, which is 5-10x Q3.
2, Nothing matters more than reporting that the Model 3 battery module production issue has been resolved. Based on the continuous rounds of config invites it seems there is a continuous production flow now. I say chances are that issue has been resolved.
Confirming exiting the year with a production rate of >1k M3/Wk and reaffirming guidance of end of March 5k/Wk on top of record 100k S/X deliveries in 2017 should put us back on track for 400+ SP.
Now one thing I'm not so sure of is how much goodwill we have burned by the continuous over-promising. So the market may wait with any big moves up until reports of actually having reached the 5k threshold before giving the vote of confidence on 2018 guidance.
As always, just my 2 cents reading the tealeaves.
I think production rate over 1k, over 2k M3 delivered, and record S/X should be enough to get good SP growth.
Most of the market still think Tesla is pumping a few dozen cars a week, deep bottleneck issues, and will deliver under 1k M3 in Q4..