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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Agree with your first sentence, but I think
1, Model 3 deliveries should be 1000-2000 in Q4, which is 5-10x Q3.
2, Nothing matters more than reporting that the Model 3 battery module production issue has been resolved. Based on the continuous rounds of config invites it seems there is a continuous production flow now. I say chances are that issue has been resolved.

Confirming exiting the year with a production rate of >1k M3/Wk and reaffirming guidance of end of March 5k/Wk on top of record 100k S/X deliveries in 2017 should put us back on track for 400+ SP.

Now one thing I'm not so sure of is how much goodwill we have burned by the continuous over-promising. So the market may wait with any big moves up until reports of actually having reached the 5k threshold before giving the vote of confidence on 2018 guidance.

As always, just my 2 cents reading the tealeaves.


I think production rate over 1k, over 2k M3 delivered, and record S/X should be enough to get good SP growth.


Most of the market still think Tesla is pumping a few dozen cars a week, deep bottleneck issues, and will deliver under 1k M3 in Q4..
 
Noob question: Since InsideEv releases monthly US EV sales scorecard within 2-3 days of the new month, would they have an insight into number of M3 deliveries at present or by Thu-Friday (the scorecard says that InsideEV 'tracks all the plug-in sales')? Or do they get their data from somewhere only in the new month?
 
OT - Just saw a commercial for karma automotive on MSNBC, had not seen that before. Nice looking car actually.
I have seen this commercial 50 times and have no clue why they are advertising it. Isn't it a hybrid?
Because they want to sell it.

And their CEO is not dating Amber Heard.

And yes, Karma Revero is a plug-in hybrid.

All true. And apparently because they don't have a boatload of unfilled orders or reservations for their $130,000 hybrid car. ;)
 
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Been thinking a bit about deliveries and initially thought, wow its going to be a real problem delivering that many cars quickly. Thinking more about it, its not that big of a problem.

If you think about 500 cars a day, that boils down to 500 man hours based on people getting notification to the effect that it takes about an hour. If that is spread across 5 locations in CA, then 10 employees at each location can deliver 10 cars an hour. For simplicity sake, lets say they work 10 hour days during the big delivery push, that is 100 cars per location or 500 per day without much effort. At 5000 per week, thats only 2x what I detailed before or 10 locations with 10 employees work 10 hours a day x 5 days a week. That really puts it into context when you think about 10,000/w seeming like some huge amount, but if you extrapolate that to 250 stores worldwide (I know there are more but my math not so good) That is only 40 man hours per store, per week. Or 1 full time person at each store on average. Deliveries are barely a full time job for 1 person per store. Its going to take longer to get them on and off the car carriers.
Inside Tesla's Marina Del Rey facility where Model 3 deliveries are taking place

The new Marina Del Rey delivery center can do 100 deliveries simultaneously.
 
Any new data concerning the acres of model 3s parked outside at Fremont?
Are the number of cars parked outside increasing or decreasing ?
Is there any new data on the flow?
They're leaving on trucks:
Instagram post by Julio Vega • Dec 26, 2017 at 11:28pm UTC
25017852_143170506390661_3780456426124607488_n.jpg
 
Which of these two predictions are correct as it will have a significant on the potential business growth:
https://www.greentechmedia.com/rese...c-car-how-will-it-impact-oil-power-and-metals

vs

Comment by PeterPiker “By 2035, there could be 125 million electric cars on the road, up from 2 million last year.”
An EV with 200 miles of electric range and an efficiency of 4 miles/kWh would require about 50 kWh of battery storage. So, 125 million of these EVs would require 6,250,000,000,000 (125,000,000 x 50,000) watt-hours, or 6,250 GWh. So, the 2035 battery capacity is off by an order of magnitude or the EV range is about 20 miles"

GTM predicts 3.5% gasoline/oil replacement by 2030 vs factor 10 error from the PeterPiker comment!
 
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I think this is the best tweet so far...
Elon Musk on Twitter
Sustainable energy production with solar and batteries will grow much faster than auto on a percentage basis. That will be a big focus next year, with primary remaining Model 3 ramp.

Ramping up TE is long overdue, and absolutely crucial
* for the world
* for Tesla's mission and financials (superchargers, GFs, selling PPs)
* for Tesla reputation. Nobody can complain of a more efficient AND greener way to produce and store energy

Cheaper and greener energy will also make the EV argument much more compelling, everywhere (Norway is leading, but I personally think that here Semis will make the difference). I'm quite excited for 2018.
 
I just read some threads mentioning end of year sales incentives and took a look what was available in Belgium. Absolutely zero. Not a single new Model S or X, not a single second hand Model S or X. Tesla apparently sold everything they had. I read similar comments a few weeks ago, but then there was still some availabilty in Belgium. I expect an absolute sales record this quarter. OTOH, this may be needed to offset the fallout of the Model 3 delay.
 
By 2030, more than 90% of new cars sold will be EV. Because of previous years’ purchases, ICE cars could still be close to 50% of cars on the road, but high-mileage uses will switch to EV faster than low-mileage, so EV should be 60-70% of total miles by 2030.

One million semis alone is equivalent to 30M cars in terms of fuel consumption. Semis actually seen much farther along in terms of having a variety of vehicles for every need, with the Tesla semi covering 80% alone. Busses seem well supplied as well. The model Y and Tesla pickup really do put the Cherry on top of vehicle mix Sunday. This covers the required vehicles to replace the vast majority of ICE vehicles. This will make it much easier for countries to outlaw ICE vehicles sales sooner then 2030 since production of the 3, Y, pickup and semi will be full bore before 2021-22. I fully expect production to ramp faster and faster for reach subsequent vehicle
 
I just read some threads mentioning end of year sales incentives and took a look what was available in Belgium. Absolutely zero. Not a single new Model S or X, not a single second hand Model S or X. Tesla apparently sold everything they had. I read similar comments a few weeks ago, but then there was still some availabilty in Belgium. I expect an absolute sales record this quarter. OTOH, this may be needed to offset the fallout of the Model 3 delay.

On the German Site all no used cars available. But there are 16 MS and MX available from the loaner pool.
 
It’s kind of correct, but has no point. First it leaves out the early years of amazon when they were cash flow negative.

Second that’s the whole point of investment rounds - you use the cash raised in order to accelerate the business faster than can be organically obtained. Investors don’t give you cash to put it into a 2% bank account.

Whole thing is pretty stupid
 
Do you think this bear-chart is correct?
DR_IR5oWsAAiXkI.jpg

Source: Josh Wolfe on Twitter
Amazon was for a long time, basically a broker connecting small time sellers with buyers and using volume discounts on shipping to create a margin. Tesla is repackaging parts to make a car, as do many auto manufacturers, but is also taking parts and assembling for serving the energy sector-- more like netlix, and only later on amazon, who are making their own media content to serve the entertainment sector....
 
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