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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Look at the AP 2.0 software rollout timeline. What was the timeline that was announced? What was actually released and on what timeline? It's remarkably pathetic. The excuse given was that this is brand new hardware and they need to rollout carefully (per electrek)... Did Musk not know that this is new hardware and needs to be rolled out gradually? Why wasn't this considered when announcing a timeline in the first place?
Musk originally estimated it would go out sometime in December but wouldn't reach parity with AP1 until early in 2017, so rough assumption being end of Q1 2017 for parity. Doesn't seem like that bad of a estimate so far.
 
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maybe someone at Ford finally sees the handwriting on the wall. The F-150 would be huge if it is made in volume and sold outside of California.
Its a step in the right direction, but still falls short - if an automaker offers a compelling EV, it will completely cannibalize their non-EV offerings. This is why none of the incumbents have offered a compelling EV, and all we get are compliance cars and PHEVs.
 
Yes, production lines up well with VIN assignment. This time around the question really is, was Tesla able to sell every car they produced by the end of the quarter?

European numbers so far seem to indicate they will be weaker by about 1K relative to Q3. As far as I can tell, China will have about 2K additional deliveries relative to Q3. So net we have 1K surplus. The very big question mark is US. InsideEv numbers look quite very bearish. They may or may not be reliable but unfortunately that is all we have.

Any background/reason you expect China to be 2k higher in Q4? Thanks.
 
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Actually, that would be REALLY good for Tesla since there's a group consisting of about 40% of the U.S. population that thinks Tesla is an "Obama Loser Car Company" because Romney said so in one of the 2012 POTUS debate. If Tesla was suddenly a Trump-loved company, a whole new market would open up.

Just for an example - my wife is in the medical field. Like me, she is very conservative/libertarian so we talk to a LOT of conservatives about Tesla. Last week, when she and some colleagues were discussing the wreck that Tesla AP predicted, an anesthesiologist spoke up and said that the problem with electric cars is that they catch on fire "all the time". My wife explained that Tesla cars had a much lower rate of fires than gas cars, and that Nissan nor Chevrolet had experienced any fires in their electric cars. He then said that if they were so great, the gov't wouldn't need to pay people to buy them. Again, my wife explained that actual facts show that GM and Ford receive FAR more subsidies than Tesla. His final comment got to the heart of the matter - "I will never buy an Obama car, so it's a moot point. Let's drop it."

We're talking about a guy that makes in excess of $250k a year - not some podunk trailer park trash.

Willful ignorance exists across income brakets. Tesla was never an Obama car or company, just a convenient political target that people are willing to accept until told how otherwise to believe
 
So a week off from his 3 week estimation on rollout and he did a good job of giving regular updates on twitter. This seems reasonable enough for estimating a major software update. If parity isn't reached by end of Q1, that would be a more significant miss imo.
Alternatively, Tesla could operate like an OEM or Mobileye and you "could, possibly, although we're not sure, haven't developed or implemented anything, but our tea-leaves (and marketing department) tell us that we'll have market leading autonomous technology by 2019....or 2020.....or 2025....".

I will take Tesla's messy reality of today vs. all the empty promises and vapor ware everyone else seems to peddle.
 
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Of the 168XXX VIN's seemingly all of which were built for inventory, 121 are currently shown in U.S. inventory on ev-cpo, 7 in Europe and 4 in Hong Kong. All were built with AP2.0 hardware.

"shown" is the keyword. Here are some later ones that do not show up on ev-cpo.

Model S P100D 5YJSA1E41GF177479 | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E41GF177482 | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E45GF177484 | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E47GF177485 | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E42GF177488 | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E44GF177489 | Tesla

Regarding growing inventory - they have thousands of inventory "overall" if you compute the total Produced minus total Sold over the course of time. I don't know for sure if a "do over" car built that does not pass QA is considered a Production +1 or it is written off immediately. If an employee can drive it a little bit for a quarter - it can be counted as production and then written down a later time.

Five 168xxx not on ev-cpo.

Pre-Owned Model S | Tesla
Pre-Owned Model S | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E45GF168428 | Tesla
Model S P100D 5YJSA1E43GF168430 | Tesla
Model S P90D 5YJSA1E45GF168476 | Tesla
 
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The undervalued thing about the SolarCity merger is that Tesal is branding itself as THE company who really wants to fight climate change, an issue that many people concerns and gives BTW. Tesla a ridicules amount of free coverage (Tesla pulls the Trump LOL). The whole solar thing brings Tesla a lot of love form the greentards* which have a lot of money.

*quote Mark Spiegel
 
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