2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dc_h]

For some complete counterprogramming, which will never come to pass.

Trump pitched Republican leaders on a solar-paneled border wall

I'm disappointed he didn't discuss the obvious ability to power lasers from the solar cells.

 

[Mike Smith]

I don't see it being the pickup since they told us recently that would be in 2019. Since they will be revealing a commercial cargo carrying vehicle, maybe it will be the Tesla container ship.

No, he said the pickup would be around the same time as the semi, so it lines up. It also makes sense to reveal them at the same time since there's a lot of overlap of the semi and pickup crowds.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Not sure how much of the capacity would be producing solar roofs/panels and storage, and how much would be used for battery dense vehicles like the Semi and Pickup. But .... 10-20 GFs would produce an enormous number of vehicles -- seems like an order of magnitude or more above the 1M in 2020 target.

Keep in mind that Gigafactory 1 will produce enough batteries/drivertrain for more than 1 million cars per year with just ~2/3rds of its capacity.

 

[Mkorpal]

No, he said the pickup would be around the same time as the semi, so it lines up. It also makes sense to reveal them at the same time since there's a lot of overlap of the semi and pickup crowds.

Did he say that today? I had a few problems with the feed around the semi part. But I thought I remember from the Q1 call that Semi would be 1st, and pickup would be 2018-2019. I could be remembering wrong though.

 

[kenliles]

I for one can't wait to have a Tesla Semi show up to deliver my new car.

The Semi is my new car

For some complete counterprogramming, which will never come to pass.

Trump pitched Republican leaders on a solar-paneled border wall

Just build the wall from all the unused coal,
Then burn it down again

 

[EinSV]

Keep in mind that Gigafactory 1 will produce enough batteries/drivertrain for more than 1 million cars per year with just 66% of its capacity.

Yes but at least some of the vehicles will be produced in separate factories (Model 3 and Model Y), we don't know how much GF production will be used for solar/storage/Semi/Pickups, and we don't know how many vehicles a combined battery/drivetrain/auto factory will produce.

But 10-20 GFs would produce a massive number of vehicles, however you slice it.

 

[MXWing]

Well that settles it. This combined with my first ever sighting of a Marai at the new local hydrogen pump is the last straw. Tesla is doomed. I'm liquidating everything in the morning, and I'm going to put it all into frozen concentrated orange juice. I hear the Dukes are trying to corner the market.

The Mirai does 0-60 in 8.6 seconds.

When I'm considering if I can do the quarter mile faster in a Bicycle, that makes the Mirai a complete non starter.

 

[SteveG3]

So was there anything market moving in that? I saw a lot of positive stuff, but I could see the headlines "Tesla needs money for new car plant"

It may take time, perhaps an analyst report spelling it out, but, in my view, Elon seems to have implied something like a goal of 10 million to 15 million vehicles per year, and conceivably double that among other things we did not know. I'm inferring those kinds of production levels from his tweet yesterday about 4 to 5 plants being needed for Tesla to equal Fords production of about 6 million per year, and today's description of 10 plants as the ultimate goal, possibly 20. My interpretation may well be mistaken, and this might not be cleared up for some time, perhaps the next earnings call. Some possible places my interpretation may be off- Elon does not necessarily mean each of those plants will be producing autos, or all auto plants would be in the 1.25-1.5 million unit production range he seems to have implied yesterday with the Ford comment.

There were a couple of other nice positives we didn't really know about in the call, like the expectation of far lower capex for the Model Y than Model 3. Such lower costs are presumably from their refinement of the machine that builds the machine, and we are likely to continue to see even further reductions with future plants. Far lower capex needs for expansion, all but certainly means faster growth.

 

[erthquake]

The Mirai does 0-60 in 8.6 seconds.

When I'm considering if I can do the quarter mile faster in a Bicycle, that makes the Mirai a complete non starter.

I was responding to mmd, so if you didn't see his initial post, my sarcasm might have gotten lost. Believe me, count me in the "fool cell" group. I did see one, though. It appeared to be a Toyota service person showing the pump to an older lady. Maybe she was thinking of buying it. It was a little hard to just mind my own business, but I did.

 

[Snerruc]

Definitely not anywhere close to 7/S class interior room. Maybe luggage capacity and that's it. And for sure not traditional luxury finishes which probably unnecessary but this market segment expects it. In terms of size the MS is like the 5/E.

Which SUV can seat 8 and tow a bloat for 600 miles?

My son's Surburban. Also 6 bikes, camping equipment , and luggage. Only it hauls it 750 miles between Richmond and Pickwick lake. Three front seat, three middle seat and two in the way back, three if they are kids.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Semi will enable Tesla to deliver its cars to customers using its own product.

I for one can't wait to have a Tesla Semi show up to deliver my new car.

Almost makes me wish I lived in Michigan.

Almost.

 

[30seconds]

My son's Surburban. Also 6 bikes, camping equipment , and luggage. Only it hauls it 750 miles between Richmond and Pickwick lake. Three front seat, three middle seat and two in the way back, three if they are kids.

Clearly the semi will completely outclass the suburban in towing capacity. Can't wait to see someone turn it into an RV.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I highly doubt Elon will stop at 20 Gigafactories.

 

[EinSV]

It may take time, perhaps an analyst report spelling it out, but, in my view, Elon seems to have implied something like a goal of 10 million to 15 million vehicles per year, and conceivably double that among other things we did not know. I'm inferring those kinds of production levels from his tweet yesterday about 4 to 5 plants being needed for Tesla to equal Fords production of about 6 million per year, and today's description of 10 plants as the ultimate goal, possibly 20. My interpretation may well be mistaken, and this might not be cleared up for some time, perhaps the next earnings call. Some possible places my interpretation may be off- Elon does not necessarily mean each of those plants will be producing autos, or all auto plants would be in the 1.25-1.5 million unit production range he seems to have implied yesterday with the Ford comment. <snip>

I think your analysis above is spot on, including the caveats.

 

[goinfraftw]

I highly doubt Elon will stop at 20 Gigafactories.

Can't count the chickens before the eggs have hatched.

 

[hockeythug]

Injuries are most of the insurance payout.

"Costly" repairs were specifically mentioned in the article.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Can't count the chickens before the eggs have hatched.

That saying is the exact reason why shorts are stuck holding a bag with billions in losses.

If chickens are produced at gigafactory-scale, and no other chicken producer even has plans to build one Chicafactory, then you can count the chickens before the eggs have hatched with an appropriate discount rate, and you should.

 

[zdriver]

I highly doubt Elon will stop at 20 Gigafactories.

The definition of a "gigafactory" is probably going to change drastically by then anyways. Imagine the factory for mass producing the BFR/ITS 10-15 years from now. Quite a lot will be learned in the process of figuring out how to mass produce those monsters.

 

[RobStark]

My son's Surburban. Also 6 bikes, camping equipment , and luggage. Only it hauls it 750 miles between Richmond and Pickwick lake. Three front seat, three middle seat and two in the way back, three if they are kids.

A 2017 Suburban does 23 mpg on highway with a 31 gallon tank.

That is 713 miles without 7 passengers and boat.

2017 Suburban with 6.6L Duramax Diesel is fleet only and MPG is unrated.

 

[TrevTremaine]

Tesla Semi will enable Tesla to deliver its cars to customers using its own product.

I for one can't wait to have a Tesla Semi show up to deliver my new car.

I just hope Tesla can improve logistics where it can control it, especially when the 3 launches. It seems to me that some Teslas are being transported great distances on the back of independent car carrier semis.