2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[vgrinshpun]

I suspect some, or perhaps all, of the PowerPacks for these two projects may also be included in the 2016 purchase orders:

CMEEC turned to Tesla and SolarCity, the industry leaders in solar storage projects. Tesla and SolarCity partnered with Brightfields Development to develop 15 MW (AC) of solar PV across 5 sites, as well as a 1.5 MW/6.0 MWh energy storage system, the largest PV-paired storage system in the Northeast. https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/en_US/Tesla_CMEEC-Case Study-2017.pdf

This does not look like a PO from SolarCity to Tesla:

"The 1.5 MW/6.0 MWh battery storage system will also be financed by Tesla and SolarCity and will be located at the Stott Avenue project site. The batteries are utilized to store solar energy produced during off-peak hours and later discharge this energy at times when CMEEC’s load is peaking, or coincident with the ISO-NE peak load. Tesla and SolarCity will implement and maintain a controls system that allows CMEEC to dispatch the battery’s energy in its preferred manner. By strategically discharging the battery in this manner, CMEEC will reduce the load they serve, and thus will pay lower capacity charges to ISO-NE for that peak event."

 

[GoTslaGo]

Even a traffic stop gets Tesla some press Skrillex Handcuffed in Hollywood, Tweets at Elon Musk: Watch

Looking at the tweets, looks like he has an X... which would be appropriate... SkrilleX...

 

[Bobfitz1]

Very good. I suspect that someday car owners will be saying, "Oh, yeah. I remember hybrids. When was that?"

Your graph looks nice, until you realize there aren't enough batteries to support that growth.
For every 0.5 M increase in full EV at 50 KWh battery pack, you need 25 GWh of battery capacity added each year. Have you seen that happening? The GF that started in 2014 summer is still stuck below 1 GWh a year. It is projected to produce battery cells for 500,000 cars by 2020! We will have to wait and see when it actually happens. Based on past Tesla time lines, I will dampen my expectations.
Please point me to new battery capacity starts that can support your EV growth plot once it crosses the chasm.
In a way, full EVs with large battery packs are like the voracious buffet goer who gobbles up all the crabs Here, they will gobble up the batteries and starve the hybrids and other devices using batteries. Cobalt prices are already shooting up with < 1M EV volume worldwide. In a way, it will be a counter balancing act by itself.

EV Volumes.com produced the chart not me. Everyone understands that many GigaFactories will need to be built in the years to come to meet demand for EVs and increase that demand due to greater range and lower cost. A number of TMC heavyweights have covered the evolution of GF1 GW production capacity increases per various announcements. Increases in production and timing have been planned by Tesla and are being executed to meet targets of 400K in 2018 and 1M by 2020. It's tellingly ludicrous that you assume GF1 is 'stuck' below some small amount when that is just one early point on its production ramp. Six months back you could have whined that GF was started in 2014 and yet hadn't produced a single new cell.
Price increases for Li and Co are normal market response to imbalance of supply and the fast increasing demand. That doesn't mean battery growth flatlines. It means opportunities for existing suppliers and new companies to find and develop new mines and increase the supply. The transition to EV transportation will run for 20 years or more. It will be slowed at times by shortages of key raw materials but those eventually self correct. Economics 101. If you are worried about the poor starving hybrids start a 'Save the Hybrid' foundation.

 

[brian45011]

This does not look like a PO from SolarCity to Tesla:

Agree-at least not to you.

The project was contracted in early-May 2016, before the buy-out was disclosed.

"SolarCity and its financing partners will build, own and operate the solar power systems while CMEEC will take advantage of locally produced, clean solar energy without the burden of a more traditional asset ownership structure."

Connecticut Municipal Electric Energy Cooperative and SolarCity Install Solar and Energy Storage Portfolio in the Northeast | SolarCity

 

[vgrinshpun]

Agree-at least not to you.

The project was contracted in early-May 2016, before the buy-out was disclosed.

"SolarCity and its financing partners will build, own and operate the solar power systems while CMEEC will take advantage of locally produced, clean solar energy without the burden of a more traditional asset ownership structure."

Connecticut Municipal Electric Energy Cooperative and SolarCity Install Solar and Energy Storage Portfolio in the Northeast | SolarCity

I was not commenting on the time frame, just pointed out that based on information provided by Tesla, the BES was financed by Tesla and Solar city. To me this means that it was not a PO from Solar City to Tesla in a sense that Solar City made a payment to Tesla to provide BES. If this would be the case, one could not say that Tesla financed BES portion of the project.

 

[Ugliest1]

I'm not entirely convinced many of those trees weren't on fire before any of us got to them.

It's a frustrating argument style to debate with, but its certainly productive in terms of digging down to the first principles reasons why we're all here. I clearly am one of many who frequently disagrees vehemently with @mmd and I often take the opportunity to point out the flaws in their arguments, but doing so has strengthened my resolve of why I believe what I do, and ultimately lead my own beliefs and theories to be stronger.

Thanks for the second paragraph. When I read it, I realized that's what has been happening inside my head as well. I try not to drink much of the fanboi juice, however the pattern of ridiculous spin in repetitive arguments from certain people does tend to get me into automatic disbelief mode.

I haven't placed anyone on the ignore list yet because frankly, the respondents to specious arguments have so much knowledge (and ... actual FACTS!) and refute things so well (not to mention writing with incredible patience, at least on the outside), I don't want to miss any of those.

 

[brian45011]

I was not commenting on the time frame, just pointed out that based on information provided by Tesla, the BES was financed by Tesla and Solar city. To me this means that it was not a PO from Solar City to Tesla in a sense that Solar City made a payment to Tesla to provide BES. If this would be the case, one could not say that Tesla financed BES portion of the project.

"SolarCity and its financing partners will build, own and operate the solar power systems..." Your view fails to consider the time-frames in which the two statements were drafted and/or implies Tesla was surreptitiously financing SCTY before the acquisition closed.

I suggested an explanation to @luvb2b why the transfer pricing between TSLA and SCTY for $18 million of TE products could be less than his calculation of $346/kwh. You suggested an alternative: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion (that ignored that the Proxy's statement that there were orderS in addition to the Kauai Project)

While there could be a component of truth in either guess, if you prefer to doubt those 6 MWh of PowerWalls for CMEEC were part of the $18 million, you can beat this horse a final time.

 

[mmd]

As for the life expectancy of hybrid vehicles, how long did the above "hybrids" last ?!?!

I think longer than this one (Early electric car, built by Thomas Parker, photo from 1895).
Electric car - Wikipedia

I did a simulation with very generous assumption that each year, pure EV sales increase by 0.5 M, assume 25 GWh additional batteries will show up from somewhere (Mars?). Simply, there is nothing constraining the 0.5M additional pure EV sales each year. This is very very generous, considering the worldwide growth in EV+PHEV sales in the last few years (check insideevs/evsales) is much less.
I see that BEVs can replace 50% of 2 billion ICE vehicles in120 years! Full replacement of ICE in 220 years! Go figure

( Horizontal axis is years. Rest of the numbers are in millions.)

 

[The Blue Owl]

I look forward to the surely forthcoming Tesla Killer! articles. That said, [URL='https://lilium.com/']this electric vertical take-off and landing jet[/url] is cool.

 

[erthquake]

I think longer than this one (Early electric car, built by Thomas Parker, photo from 1895).
Electric car - Wikipedia
View attachment 223873

I did a simulation with very generous assumption that each year, pure EV sales increase by 0.5 M, assume 25 GWh additional batteries will show up from somewhere (Mars?). Simply, there is nothing constraining the 0.5M additional pure EV sales each year. This is very very generous, considering the worldwide growth in EV+PHEV sales in the last few years (check insideevs/evsales) is much less.
I see that BEVs can replace 50% of 2 billion ICE vehicles in120 years! Full replacement of ICE in 220 years! Go figure

View attachment 223876
( Horizontal axis is years. Rest of the numbers are in millions.)

S-curve anyone?

 

[GoTslaGo]

I look forward to the surely forthcoming Tesla Killer! articles. That said, this electric vertical take-off and landing jet is cool.

Very cool!

 

[DurandalAI]

I'm not entirely convinced many of those trees weren't on fire before any of us got to them.

It's a frustrating argument style to debate with, but its certainly productive in terms of digging down to the first principles reasons why we're all here. I clearly am one of many who frequently disagrees vehemently with @mmd and I often take the opportunity to point out the flaws in their arguments, but doing so has strengthened my resolve of why I believe what I do, and ultimately lead my own beliefs and theories to be stronger.

I'd agree. While I disagree with plenty that mmd says, I certainly don't mind mmd being here, preventing a bull echo chamber. If your perspective and ideas are not able to tolerate challenges, then maybe they should be reconsidered. I would anticipate just that these forums would draw in people who are pro Tesla, it should also draw in some people who are on the other side of the fence who hopefully bring some cogent bear arguments. Even if you're for an idea, it's good to play Devil's Advocate against your idea to find flaws/holes/risks. It's part of risk management. Identify your assets, find out what vulnerabilities there are, assess the likelihood of those risks, and attempt to mitigate the risks. Unless you try to identify vulnerabilities, you can never mitigate them.

 

[surfside]

i've posted my compilation of equity analysts' Q1 forecasts in the Q1 results thread here.

surfside

 

[Bobfitz1]

Very good. I suspect that someday car owners will be saying, "Oh, yeah. I remember hybrids. When was that?"

I'd agree. While I disagree with plenty that mmd says, I certainly don't mind mmd being here, preventing a bull echo chamber. If your perspective and ideas are not able to tolerate challenges, then maybe they should be reconsidered. I would anticipate just that these forums would draw in people who are pro Tesla, it should also draw in some people who are on the other side of the fence who hopefully bring some cogent bear arguments. Even if you're for an idea, it's good to play Devil's Advocate against your idea to find flaws/holes/risks. It's part of risk management. Identify your assets, find out what vulnerabilities there are, assess the likelihood of those risks, and attempt to mitigate the risks. Unless you try to identify vulnerabilities, you can never mitigate them.

Thumbs up on cogent bear arguments. Thumbs down on unserious pretend ideas. Like making an absurd assumption - i.e. that no more than 25 GW of batteries can ever be produced in a year, for 120 years! And then drawing a conclusion it will take 120 years to replace 50% of 2 billion ICE vehicles. That's not a useful debate. It's a clown car.

 

[zdriver]

I always find it interesting who files these suits, so I Google-stalked the plaintiffs. Presented without comment:

One owns a radar detector review website and has posted negative Tesla videos to Youtube.

One is a medical malpractice attorney.

One owns a small investment company.

Looked it up, I know that one guy, even met him once. He been known for um, stirring up drama, in the police countermeasures community several years ago. Seems strange that the suit filed doesn't use his real name. (Thomas, not Tom)

A radar detector review website is an understatement - he's actually a vendor. Tom Milone | Best Radar Detectors | ZoomInfo.com

He's also managed to annoy the FCC in the past for marketing highly illegal radar jammers (that don't even work against modern guns, mind you) - https://transition.fcc.gov/eb/Orders/2007/DA-07-307A1.html

 

[mmd]

It's tellingly ludicrous that you assume GF1 is 'stuck' below some small amount when that is just one early point on its production ramp. Six months back you could have whined that GF was started in 2014 and yet hadn't produced a single new cell.

Stop spreading these rumors, that 6 months ago GF didn't produce any cell We saw robots running non-stop and crates of batteries ready to ship during the GF opening ceremony back in July 2016! Are you saying that was Potemkin village show? Are you Paulo Santos or his relative?

But think about this for a while. Here is the smartest and fastest company with the smartest CEO ever, working with the best battery company Panasonic. All they will produce is batteries for 0.5 M cars a year in 6-7 years (2014 to 2020). That's additional cells for only 70k-80k EVs a year on average. This is really negligible in overall scheme of things. I am being lot more generous in my assumptions. If you expect faster battery ramp up in future, you need to see faster pace of investment in battery production than 1 GF a year. As @jhm has said, part of the batteries also go to storage.

Thumbs up on cogent bear arguments. Thumbs down on unserious pretend ideas. Like making an absurd assumption - i.e. that no more than 25 GW of batteries can ever be produced in a year, for 120 years! And then drawing a conclusion it will take 120 years to replace 50% of 2 billion ICE vehicles. That's not a useful debate. It's a clown car.

You didn't understand what I wrote, nor did you check the plot. First, GW is unit of power. You probably meant '25 GWh'. Second, that's additional capacity each year. That is, it is IN ADDITION TO existing capacity. So, annual production goes up as 25 GWh, 50 GWh, 75 GWh, ... Hope this is simple enough to understand now. I am not going to spend more time simplifying things for people lacking comprehension skills. it just takes time and makes the thread longer.

 

[kenliles]

Well, If you're wondering if you can make your own contribution to the problem
but need some help deciding.

Here's a smart-chart
Guide to Decide
See you there!

 

[Sancho]

this electric vertical take-off and landing jet is cool.

Wow. Tesla should buy this company. I have the same positive feeling about the viability of this technology and business concept as I did when I first started reading about Tesla as they were designing the Roadster. Pay attention to this company; this is ready for prime time.

 

[neroden]

I'd agree. While I disagree with plenty that mmd says, I certainly don't mind mmd being here, preventing a bull echo chamber.

mmd is so far the only person who has made my permanent ignore list. Myusername, I find useful, because I'm still learning technicals. Mmd is spitting up stuff which I disproved four years ago, which is just *boring*.

I would anticipate just that these forums would draw in people who are pro Tesla, it should also draw in some people who are on the other side of the fence who hopefully bring some cogent bear arguments.

I wish. I wish there were a bear who was pointing out that Tesla is failing to build service centers fast enough, or that their software QA process seems to be awful. You know, the real risks? For some reason, the real problems are only being identified by bulls.

I am not sure what that says but I think it's very positive for the stock in the near term. When the bears actually start getting hold of the correct arguments, that'll... probably not be so good for the stock.

 

[neroden]

Wow. Tesla should buy this company. I have the same positive feeling about the viability of this technology and business concept as I did when I first started reading about Tesla as they were designing the Roadster. Pay attention to this company; this is ready for prime time.

Lilium is still privately held. Wonder whether they'll go public...