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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
We already knew base M3 battery would be less than 60kWh.
I am probably one of the few here who would be most likely to caution for such scenarios. Many here are/were projecting S/X sales of 150k in 2018... What's noteworthy in this blog to me is that Tesla is signalling that it may not be 'business as usual' to get there.
I just read it as consistent messaging prior to further unveilings.
When asked about range vs Bolt, a few days ago - Elon musk stated - have faith.
Elon Musk on Twitter
racer26
Active Member
We knew Model 3 would come in under 60kWh.
Elon also implied a couple weeks ago when someone alluded to it on twitter that it would beat the Bolt in base config. I'm guessing this reference to 215mi is simply to keep the cards close.
Jalopnik article here: http://jalopnik.com/this-is-the-full-tesla-model-3-way-before-youre-suppose-1794073497
Seems to have a picture of what appears to be a blue Model 3 RC.
In addition to the (one? two? n?) black ones that have been seen.
Also has a shot (blurry, though) of the display. Looks to me like the left 1/3 or so of the display has a classic-S style speedometer.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Yes, but this did not specify the base M3. That's not to say I think the base will come in right at 215. Simply that Musk's reply doesn't actually say it'll beat the Bolt.
racer26
Active Member
If you think Musk is prepared to allow the Bolt to be superior to the base version of the Model 3 on any metric, you don't know Musk's style very well.
Number of displays
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
Reciprocity
Active Member
During the reveal he clearly said that 215 was the minimum range and that more then likely it would have greater range.
Elon Quote: 215 miles EPA range and I want to emphasize that these are minimum numbers and we hope to exceed them.
I fear we already have no choice because nobody, even before the Trump devolution, was seriously addressing the methane problem. If the fossil fuel industry were really our friend, the entire consortium would be madly researching methods to extract that from the atmosphere because the melting of the permafrost and thawing of methane ice is proceeding apace and Obama's mere "patch" of leaking wells pales by comparison to the impact of warming itself, aside from climate change.
I have already informed my great grand daughters they are not to locate in Florida, the only state, fittingly, which will be totally underwater--not just mortgages this time.
if you're point is simply that we don't really know how the run up, and delivery of the Model 3 will impact Model S/X sales, I would surely agree with you. You also wrote about this situation, "Not very confidence inspiring from an investor point of view." Perhaps, like TFTF, you think Tesla would have been better off remaining a niche automaker of $100K EVs. I emphatically think they are better off moving to the mass market, and their promotion of the S and anti-selling the Model 3 pre-launch, inspires confidence in me that they are being pro-active and rational re the positioning of the two vehicles in the market.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I dont think they are concerned about the Model 3 cannibalizing the Model S/X sales and more worried about the flood of trade ins from current S/X owners that could cause a problem for S/X sales in the near term. When I made my purchase, the sale guy told me that many S owners had more then one reservation for 3s. I think we might be under estimating how many current owners will buy a 3 as a second car and/or replace their S. Tesla knows exactly how many current owners have reservations, but they do not know exactly what they intend to do.
I am pondering selling my X when the 3 comes out, but I am also pondering keeping it until after the tax credit goes away. That plus HW2 and lifetime free supercharge might help it retain its value a bit.
I am pondering selling my X when the 3 comes out, but I am also pondering keeping it until after the tax credit goes away. That plus HW2 and lifetime free supercharge might help it retain its value a bit.
mmd
Active Member
Deja vu of Model S 40 that no one wanted?
Make the base model really unappealing; offer a few at the promised price. Then declare that no one wants it and discontinue it.
Normally ignoring, but I wanted to take the briefest of moments to share my feelings about investing, when REASONING BY ANALOGY:
Back to ignoring.
I know Musk advises not to argue by analogy. My problem, based on some graduate education in the philosophy of science, the instrumental or Braithwaite model of scientific theory is, in final effect, that scientific theory is an analogy to factual statements about nature.
Even the theories use reasoning by analogy. The gas laws, for example, are analogized in the dynamical theory of gasses to billiard balls bouncing off the sides of a container in one thought experiment. Halve the volume, twice the impact. Etc. and etc. until something like nPVRT emerges, if I remember correctly.
I fear we already have no choice because nobody, even before the Trump devolution, was seriously addressing the methane problem. If the fossil fuel industry were really our friend, the entire consortium would be madly researching methods to extract that from the atmosphere because the melting of the permafrost and thawing of methane ice is proceeding apace and Obama's mere "patch" of leaking wells pales by comparison to the impact of warming itself, aside from climate change.
I have already informed my great grand daughters they are not to locate in Florida, the only state, fittingly, which will be totally underwater--not just mortgages this time.
There is a kickstarter campaign running to address the problem
Pleistocene Park: An Ice Age Ecosystem To Save The World
The world’s best plan to bring back a vanished ice age ecosystem and save the world from a catastrophic global warming feedback loop.
Pleistocene Park: An Ice Age Ecosystem To Save The World
Thanks. You made my day. Trump consorts with the wrong Russians. Send this to him. Maybe it will have the same effect on Ivanka as the gassing of children by Syria.
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