jhm
Well-Known Member
Dude, I was having the theme song to Laverne and Shirley rolling around in my head.
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Perhaps it's the seam between the cap and the outer casing?
Indeed. And a dire attachment to a view that the future of transport must fall within their existing but reconfigured infrastructure because "it's too big to fail." Sounds like the Titanic revisited. To what degree will Tesla be able to scale up when they have cheap access to legacy mfg'r stranded (but outdated) assets? They'll need to be updated to the then-current Alien Dreadnought version production lines.Apparently, they have not lost enough market share to Tesla yet.
So keeping this definition in mind, Tesla and Panasonic indeed started mass production of the cells at the GF.
I believe that was 2 weeks of downtime followed by 6 weeks of slow production. I don't want to see Tesla repeat that with an interior upgrade.
Short and hold. Probably only a loss when you sell, and/or these are not necessarily entities who are required to publically report anything.
Even with the squeeze in 2013, I think the short position never went below about 15% of float, to my understanding, far far more than the average publicly traded company.
So perhaps a baseline of about 15% short as part of this PR campaign, and then typically another 10% or so of 1) traders jumping in on the volatility, 2) innocent bystanders getting doused with that "Tesla scam" koolaide.
We can take this OT and debate the impact severity of various production line changes. My point is that every hardware upgrade of any significance has taken longer than Tesla forecast and slowed production impacting its ability to meet delivery guidance. RHD, D, Next Gen Seats, Facelift, AP2. All of them.Interior door panels and pieces can be swapped out with nearly zero downtime. IIRC the dash is installed as a single pre-built piece so given the dash line can switch to HUD production without halting progress too much I think it'll be less intrusive then having to rewire the whole car like they needed to for AP 2.0.
First, do we know there was sox weeks of slow down? Second, if there was it was not predicted, could hardly forecast it, and third it really isn't a hill of beans. Supply lines deal with worse.It would have been fine if they had forecast the 6 weeks of slowdown in production. Instead they had to tell us about it after the fact when they missed the number. Credibility is important not just for Wall Street but also when dealing with suppliers. As Tesla keeps missing forecasts their credibility with suppliers suffers.
From yesterday's press release:First, do we know there was sox weeks of slow down? Second, if there was it was not predicted, could hardly forecast it, and third it really isn't a hill of beans. Supply lines deal with worse.
Because of short-term production challenges starting at the end of October and lasting through early December from the transition to new Autopilot hardware
Ok, here is another interpretation of this misalignment in announcements. It is a little "out there", but bear with me.Going back to the quote from Panasonic regarding the start of mass production at the GF, I think that the key which was overlooked by everybody including myself, but which clearly stands out now is that source at Panasonic did not indicate that mass production will start by April, they said that all they can say is that they guarantee that mass production starts by April. This essentially does not contradict to today's event in any way - their guarantee still stands, as they, to be intentionally abstruse IMO, put limit on the latest start date, without saying anything about the earliest projection.
Overall, it is very interesting how Tesla and Panasonic managed to pull this off in 100% stealth mode, without a peep coming from any sources. This strict discipline is very impressive.
To the question about what constitutes start of mass production, it is in my mind is not so much linked to the quantity of the output, but to the fact that it is coming from the production line designed for mass production, after proper validation and testing is completed. Clearly production will start with the lowest output possible and then will be gradually brought up to the maximum. So keeping this definition in mind, Tesla and Panasonic indeed started mass production of the cells at the GF.
We can take this OT and debate the impact severity of various production line changes. My point is that every hardware upgrade of any significance has taken longer than Tesla forecast and slowed production impacting its ability to meet delivery guidance. RHD, D, Next Gen Seats, Facelift, AP2. All of them.
Not at all. I want Tesla to learn from their past efforts how long it actually takes to implement hardware changes on the production line and forecast deliveries accordingly. That simple.So is your point then that they should just stop updating their models? There is some delay in the line while implementing improvements, as you've pointed out. You state that you don't want any slowdowns anymore. Is your conclusion then that they shouldn't update the dash for a HUD? Seems you've painted Tesla into a corner.
while one might have been swayed to buy the dips on these dramatic swings over the last few days... no one could have timed it in advance without relying on luck... 213 to 220 to 211 to 226 in 3 days?... wtf is going on with this stock?
i did not play this week... i was too busy... and I'm glad... i'll try to review the charts soon and see how our recent trends correlate with this madness.
Apparently, they have not lost enough market share to Tesla yet.
They think infrastructure is the problem for EVs, but at what scale do EVs face a critical infrastructure problem. I don't see a hard edge here. At current scale, EV owners do fine and charge mostly at home. Clearly this is not a problem for utilities either. Suppose the fleet of EVs gets 10 time larger. People still charge mostly at home and utilities have not shorted out. Meanwhile, technology for faster charging has emerged and charging station are more widely available and more heavily utilized. So I don't see how advancing the scale brings EVs any closer to failure, just the opposite. Increasing scale improves the infrastructural challenges. This would be true of hydrogen vehicle. The problem however is that hydrogen infrastructure requires substantial geographical density before it is adequate. So it will be much harder at small scale than large scale. And may never get past that critical scale.
Like I said, they just have not lost enough market share yet. As EVs scale up, the infrastructure will become even more supportive.
Apparently, they have not lost enough market share to Tesla yet.
U.S. industry sets new high behind solid GM, Nissan, Honda gains
Volume rose 10 percent at GM for a second straight month. Nissan Motor Co. advanced 9.7 percent and American Honda posted a 6.4 percent gain. Toyota Motor Corp. rose 2 percent and Ford Motor Co. edged up 0.1 percent, while Fiat Chrysler recorded its third straight double-digit decline.