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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Interesting to see if TSLA will finish today pegged to $250 even if market sells off. If so, it seems forces want TSLA at $250 for impending cap raise.
(Pure speculation on my part)
BTW, it seems all the cap raises over the last few years occurred within two weeks of the Earnings Report
(Pure speculation on my part)
BTW, it seems all the cap raises over the last few years occurred within two weeks of the Earnings Report
If you use 162M shares outstanding and 32M shares sold short, you come up with about 20%. Not all the shares outstanding are able to be freely traded, however, such as Musk's shares. Thus, the number of freely tradable shares, the float, is lower and Yahoo calls it at 122M. So, divide 32M by 122M and you get 26%.
I'm guessing that IB and FinViz differences are related to the assumption of how many short shares are outstanding.
PaulRocket
Member
SolarCity layoffs were inevitable:
Tesla’s SolarCity has seen its workforce cut roughly 20% in 2016 following acquisition
Tesla’s SolarCity has seen its workforce cut roughly 20% in 2016 following acquisition
Well, calculating gross margin based on revenue listed in 10-K does not tell us much, as we do not know what percentage of the installed BES were paid outright vs. being part of PPA. After engaging in one of my favorite pastimes - doing napkin math - the data shared by Tesla actually bodes extremely well for the future of TE.
On October 27 Tesla indicated that to that date they installed 300MWh of TE. In the Q4 shareholder letter they shared that total TE installations were 98MWh. So we can assume that total installed capacity of TE in 2016 was between 300 and 398MWh.
From the passages quoted by JBRR above we know that cost of TE revenue in 2016 was $99M.
So based on the above, even with the cells coming from Japan the cost of TE products was between $249/kWh and 330/kWh.
This means that for the TE list price of $430/kWh (for 1 to 4 power to energy ratio) the gross margin would be a whopping 23% to 42%. Wow!
Even if we assume a 15% discount off the list price, the gross margin would still be 10% to 32%. Wow again!
All of the above before any benefits of GF production, which according to the latest from Tesla would result in cost reduction of 35%! Adding savings in shipping from Japan, and future of TE looks very bright...
Talking about some of the proclamations from the (Aced) Oracle, TE is NOT a joke...
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larmor
Active Member
TE is going to be even bigger than autos-- i heard something like that from a prior CC as well...
Fred, the stock price keeps reinforcing your theory. The next question is the effect upon TSLA SP if an equity raise is completed. Since Elon has pretty much said it's coming, I would think the execution of the raise would be seen as a de-risking event and would send the SP upward. When compared to the revenue increases from Model 3, the dilution for $2 billion at $250/share would be seen as mouse nuts by many investors.
The competing theory would be that Elon will wait until after the Q1 delivery numbers or ER before raising funds because the SP would be higher then if Q1 exceeds the numbers of 3Q16.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yes, the Cap Raise will likely be seen as a derisking event. TSLA should trade higher as a result (barring any macro declines).
My spidey senses say it's coming by next week at the latest:
1). All prior cap raises were within two weeks post ER.
2). GS downgrade by a tiny $5 drop smells fishy. They've done this head-fake in the past right before prior Cap Raises. Probably gets clients in for less. (Chinese firewall?... riiiiight....)
3). Tesla and bankers want to avoid another "down round" of funding. So, I think they want $250
Should use beautiful south border wall from now on... America first!
I'm quite amazed at how much length you're willing to go and add so many assumptions/uncertainty (utility may be paying far less than $430/kWh to start with) to come up with this number instead of just consulting plain numbers laid out by the company in their SEC filing. If being part of PPA increases COGS, then it is COGS no less.
The gross margin for TE in 2016 was negative, plain and simple, unless you don't think Elon and Co trust worthy or they are misleading investors and SEC alike in the 10-K
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Could Elon have meant the 150GWh coming from multiple GF by 2020? Sorry I haven't played the video of the whole meeting. Does anyone have a link to the transcript, or can point me to the spot in the meeting when he referred to the 150GWh?
What are you talking about?
I consulted plain numbers provided in 10-K.
Being part of PPA decreases Revenue (defers it to be precise), NOT increasing COGS.
According to IHS California large BES projects had lower boundary pricing of $400/kWh which they called "very aggressive".
I am quite amazed at your post.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think most people are focused on the M3, not sure if Q1 delivery # will change anything. If the # is good, people will point to the several thousand cars in the pipeline at the end of 2016 and discount it, if they fall short people will say the shutdown did it, and may not penalize Tesla much.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Uh oh guys, the Prius Prime "EV wanna be" has a HUD and the Model S and X don't. Tesla is doomed!!
2017 Toyota Prius Prime Interior & Exterior Photos
Here's why it's a wanna be if you weren't aware: The Electrek Review: 2017 Prius Prime – This is not the EV you’re looking for
As a former Prius driver I find it very sad that Toyota threw away a decade of leading the clean car movement...but at least they have a HUD!
2017 Toyota Prius Prime Interior & Exterior Photos
Here's why it's a wanna be if you weren't aware: The Electrek Review: 2017 Prius Prime – This is not the EV you’re looking for
As a former Prius driver I find it very sad that Toyota threw away a decade of leading the clean car movement...but at least they have a HUD!
This is just wrong. "To date" means from at least 2015 when they revealed TE and very much likely to include installed capacity before as they showcased several industrial cases of TE as pilot projects.
Also wrong. The correct number is $178.3M (total COGS for SCTY and TE) - $67M (COGS of SCTY) = $111.3M
So based on one erroneous assumption and one wrong calculation, this cost of yours is apparently incorrect again. A closer number, based on your own sources but with better assumptions would be
Total installed TE up to end of 2016: 300-398 MWh
Total COGS for TE during same period of time: $111.3M (2016) + $ 12.3M (2015) + $4.0M (2014) = $127.6M
So cost for TE on average over the three years was between $321/kWh and $425/kWh
Needless to say, TE is not having great margins even without discounts to large scale products. But let's find out at exactly what price was TE being sold at
Total revenue from TE up to end of 2016: $181.4M (total revenue for SCTY and TE in 2016) - $84.1M (revenue of SCTY in 2016) + $14.5M (TE in 2015) + $4.2M (TE in 2014) = $116M
So ASP for TE over the three years was between $291/kWh and $387/kWh.
This translates into a gross margin of around -9%.
racer26
Active Member
So. From the 10-K we know that the 'Beta' prototype of Model 3 is not yet completed, as Elon's grant didn't vest. We also know its expected to in the immediate future, and that the vehicles they started building in February are the 'beta' vehicles, but the board hasn't approved one yet as the gold standard.
So far as anyone here knows, we only know about 3 (arguably 2) Model 3 Alphas.
The Red structural prototype that doesn't have any powertrain or anything
The matte black early alpha which has Model S style door handles
The silver alpha with the new Model 3 door handles.
Given that we heard about preliminary crash testing happening right around the same time as the start of beta production, I would guess that there were at least a few more alphas produced than the ones we know about. I wonder how many there actually were.
So far as anyone here knows, we only know about 3 (arguably 2) Model 3 Alphas.
The Red structural prototype that doesn't have any powertrain or anything
The matte black early alpha which has Model S style door handles
The silver alpha with the new Model 3 door handles.
Given that we heard about preliminary crash testing happening right around the same time as the start of beta production, I would guess that there were at least a few more alphas produced than the ones we know about. I wonder how many there actually were.
DurandalAI
Member
Ah yes, Toyota... Maxing out with a truly weak PHEV even compared to the Volt, while simultaneously trying to sell hydrogen fuel cells as a viable alternative to gasoline powered transport. The absolute manic denial of BEV being the future from all Japanese auto manufacturers with exception to Nissan is ridiculous to me. They could have made the Prius Prime a much better contender against the Volt, but for some reason they didn't. I guess one side benefit of the Prius Prime is it will train people on plugging in their car at the end of the day at home, which will get them used to the concept when their next purchase cycle comes around and they can go full EV with a M3 or MY.As a former Prius driver I find it very sad that Toyota threw away a decade of leading the clean car movement...but at least they have a HUD!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I don't recall exactly where but an analyst ask him about GWh of cell production and he says about 100. Then reiterates most likely outcome is 1 million cars produced in 2020.
At the 2016 Shareholders meeting is the first time Elon mentions tripling capacity. He says the original goal was 35 GWh of cells and 50 GWh of packs but now they have rethought the process and expect to triple capacity. He says they are not guaranteeing they will produce triple the capacity but that is the theoretical maximum.
Starts discussion on GF capacity at 1:52 in video
2016 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla
Tesla could triple the planned battery output of ‘Gigafactory 1’ to 150 GWh, says Elon Musk
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