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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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"In terms of "electrified" vehicles, Ford revealed seven of the 13 planned EVs it intends to release in the next five years, including hybrid versions of the F-150 pickup and Mustang in the U.S., a plug-in hybrid Transit Custom van in Europe and a fully electric SUV with an expected range of at least 300 miles for customers globally."
So Ford is planning ONE fully electric car in the next FIVE years.

Do you see the problem yet?

Hyundai is more serious than Ford. At this point I can count Hyundai as a serious car company, along with Nissan, GM, BYD, BAIC, some of the other Chinese companies, and potentially VW. Every one of these companies has too small a production target. Ford has no production target.
 
="myusername, post: 1969495, member: 52487"]WHAT?!?!
do we live in different worlds?... seriously... which set of "alternative facts" are you referencing?


we actually may live in different worlds
I did some simple market research, I chatted with a 24 year old guy who works in auto finance.
He is happy/unhappy about the coming pulse of autonomous vehicles and posits a huge drop in demand for vehicles, how there will be few auto companies in the near future, "Transportation as a Service", (my daughter abandoned her paid off mini cooper as an aside)
All the car companies are too timid and too late and most won't survive
 
Are we now $100 above the Mark BS bottom? I would totally love that :) And I would totally love to see his fund performance report. Either he is a hypocrite and doesn't short TSLA when he said he would. Or it would cost him dearly...
for some unknown reason, when I thank either Montana Skeptic, Logical Thought/Mark BS, Paulo Santos on Seeking alpha for the MBS $100 /55+% rally, i get stony silence, i'm giving them sincere thanks for my PROFITS!!! and they just get grumpy, sheesh, ingrates ;)
 
So Ford is planning ONE fully electric car in the next FIVE years.

Do you see the problem yet?

Hyundai is more serious than Ford. At this point I can count Hyundai as a serious car company, along with Nissan, GM, BYD, BAIC, some of the other Chinese companies, and potentially VW. Every one of these companies has too small a production target. Ford has no production target.

Maybe we have to give it to them; they have more imagination than the rest of us. :rolleyes:
 
For me, I look at TSLA like this.

Ground transportation is crucial...

0. You have government to build roads.
1. You have oil companies to extract crude oil and refine it.
2. You have oil service companies to build the pipeline or other methods to get the oil from production to consumption.
3. You have gas stations to serve individuals.
4. You have auto OEMs to build the cars.
5. You have dealers to sell the cars and service them.
6. You have drivers to drive them (it's either costing your time, or your money to hire someone to drive for you)
7. You have insurance companies to cover accidents.
8. You have parking lots to put the cars when not being used.

Together, this sector is worth a few trillion dollars at least...
I believe you neglected the fuzzy dice sector. Should I alert Mr Musk?

Otherwise, a very palpable thesis. Thank you.
 
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we actually may live in different worlds
I did some simple market research, I chatted with a 24 year old guy who works in auto finance.
He is happy/unhappy about the coming pulse of autonomous vehicles and posits a huge drop in demand for vehicles, how there will be few auto companies in the near future, "Transportation as a Service", (my daughter abandoned her paid off mini cooper as an aside)
All the car companies are too timid and too late and most won't survive

^^^
This. The market for cars will drop considerably. If the pricing for Tesla mobility is less than the cost of an Uber (which I suspect it will be, especially once Level 5 autonomy occurs) then we will see less need for multi-car households. If a Tesla mobility ride costs half of what Uber is today (possible and reasonable) then there are people who currently have 2+ cars that likely could get by with one less car, especially if the car could be summoned to a new location, or in a pinch call someone else's Tesla. Heck, Tesla mile credits could be used to where if you want to rack up credits you could put your car into the pool to get your credits up to 500 miles, and you can just deduct from those 500 credit miles, no exchange of money! Carpooling is easier, because if you need the car for lunch break, you can simply summon it, etc...

As such, an eventual 20% drop in demand for vehicles may be realistic. (Over how long of a period of time, who knows.) Other automakers seem to be slow to the game on full autonomy, although GM's Bolt demonstration wasn't bad at all. Luckily for Tesla, the vertical integration from power generation, storage, and usage is a great place to be.
 
Wow, a $10 pop on UAE entry? I was thiking more like $5 pop. Trying to understand, how many Teslas will be sold in UAE. If anyone has a link to UAE luxury car sales data, please post. TIA.

It isn't so much about Tesla entering the UAE that's causing the spike, it's about the personal and potential relationship development between Elon and the Sheikh. The UAE is determined to switch to renewables, being that Elon was in the same room with the Sheikh implies that Tesla is on their "radar." Once Tesla is close to ramping the M3, and demand becomes too apparent to ignore, it'll likely commence a "Trump" like relationship that is going to help Tesla in building out additional factories and GF. Pay attention and read between the lines, the hints are too apparent to ignore. The Sheikh will definitely be an investment ally in the near future.
 
all of the other auto manufacturers trade between 0.2 and 1 P/S where the average is around 0.6... Tesla (Auto) trades at 6.4 P/S and will eventually fall back into this zone... if it traded within that range today then the SP would be about $28... but they'll need to go 10x before they even start to compare with the rest of the entire auto industry in terms of valuation.

Well that might be true if Tesla was growing at the industry average. Compare 5 year revenue CAGR:
Ford - 2.3%
Auto industry - 11%
Tesla - 103%

Walmart has a 5 year CAGR of 2.7% and a P/S of 0.4; Amazon CAGR of 32% and P/S of 3.1 with only meager profits. The market values growth.

With huge demand for the Model 3, Tesla should continue to grow revenues at a 50%+ rate at least through 2020. With 500K to 1M units sold annually you are looking at $27B-$50B in revenues. That translates into a market cap of $80B-$150B with a P/S of 3 al la Amazon.

But please feel free to short the stock if you think Tesla is overvalued compared to Ford.
 
confirmed, 39:30. Elon is an alien.


You could've at least hyperlinked it!! I had an idea which post it was anyways :)

That post has a dizzying array of reactions :)

^^^
This. The market for cars will drop considerably. If the pricing for Tesla mobility is less than the cost of an Uber (which I suspect it will be, especially once Level 5 autonomy occurs) then we will see less need for multi-car households. If a Tesla mobility ride costs half of what Uber is today (possible and reasonable) then there are people who currently have 2+ cars that likely could get by with one less car, especially if the car could be summoned to a new location, or in a pinch call someone else's Tesla. Heck, Tesla mile credits could be used to where if you want to rack up credits you could put your car into the pool to get your credits up to 500 miles, and you can just deduct from those 500 credit miles, no exchange of money! Carpooling is easier, because if you need the car for lunch break, you can simply summon it, etc...

As such, an eventual 20% drop in demand for vehicles may be realistic. (Over how long of a period of time, who knows.) Other automakers seem to be slow to the game on full autonomy, although GM's Bolt demonstration wasn't bad at all. Luckily for Tesla, the vertical integration from power generation, storage, and usage is a great place to be.

I just had a thought. In the same way that the ICE majors have been slow to produce good BEV's, they could be slow to produce level 5 automation. (Good BEV's mess up ICE makers because it directs customers from their established factory output into the output of not-yet-purchased factories. ) Since full autonomy will reduce, by some amount, the total demand for cars they have a vested interest in declaring it impossible and failing.
 
and like I said would happen 2 months ago when the market cap starts getting into beyond ridiculous category again:

Tesla Market Value Reaches 88% of Ford’s

"The contrast in size between the two is massive. Tesla barely produced 83,000 cars last year. Ford produced over 6.6 million. Even if Tesla hits its near-term forecasts, its production will barely top 500,000 in two years."

this is why valuation is important.

Ford builds combustion engine cars, the market thinks that Tesla will be able to build electric cars faster than Ford, but I agree there is a risk that investors confuse the new technology with the old.
 
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