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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Apologies if this was already discussed earlier. But I noticed something interesting in NVDA's recent ER CC transcript.

Jen-Hsun Huang - NVIDIA Corp.

We currently have DRIVE PX. DRIVE PX today is a one-chip solution for Level 3. And with two chips, two processors, you can achieve Level 4. And with many processors, you could achieve Level 5 today. And some people are using many processors to develop their Level 5, and some people are using a couple of processors to develop their Level 4. Our next generation, so that's all based on the Pascal generation. That's all based on the Pascal generation. Our next generation, the processor is called Xavier. We announced that recently. Xavier basically takes four processors and shrink it into one. And so we'll be able to achieve Level 4 with one processor. That's the easiest way to think about it. So we'll achieve Level 3 with one processor today. Next year, we'll achieve Level 4 with one processor, and with several processors, you could achieve Level 5.


What I'm puzzled about is that Tesla is claiming that the current hardware its capable of all the way to level-5. So I wonder how many DRIVE PX chips it has. Otherwise, is it an implicit assumption that Tesla will keep updating it's existing AP2 hardware cars, for free of cost to owners, to keep up with the DRIVE PX chips?

Paging @FredLambert

It might be that the current AP2 hardware is capable of delivering level 5 the same way the AP1 hardware is capable of detecting traffic lights and do complex summon based on calendar...
 
My understanding of Huang's comment here is that based purely on image recognition and processing, there's a need of multiple chips to achieve L4/5. But Tesla's solution is image and radar.

Going fromL3 to L4 may require better chips and software. But the difference between L4 and L5 is all about driving in inclement weather. I only have a old Model S, pre-autopilot, so I have no experience at all about what the forward-looking camera can see, but I can tell you that the rear camera gets completely USELESS in bad weather due to slush / mud totally obscuring its view. I always drive wit the camera displayed on my main screen to supplement the mirror's narrow field of view. I can tell you there will never be any software solution / better chip that will let you drive in a bad winter day until they come up with a solution to prevent the camera being clogged up.

It may require a hydrophobic nano-coating or micro-wipers to keep it clean. I do not know what solution would work, but I am absolutely sure the current setup / hardware will NOT work for L5 due to ZERO visibility through the camera in bad weather.
 
Going fromL3 to L4 may require better chips and software. But the difference between L4 and L5 is all about driving in inclement weather. I only have a old Model S, pre-autopilot, so I have no experience at all about what the forward-looking camera can see, but I can tell you that the rear camera gets completely USELESS in bad weather due to slush / mud totally obscuring its view. I always drive wit the camera displayed on my main screen to supplement the mirror's narrow field of view. I can tell you there will never be any software solution / better chip that will let you drive in a bad winter day until they come up with a solution to prevent the camera being clogged up.

It may require a hydrophobic nano-coating or micro-wipers to keep it clean. I do not know what solution would work, but I am absolutely sure the current setup / hardware will NOT work for L5 due to ZERO visibility through the camera in bad weather.
The Bolt has this:
2017-Chevrolet-Bolt-EV-Rear-Camera-washer.jpg
 
Production specialist start at $14.39 but interns start at $23.11?

Production specialist vs Production associate which makes $17.37/hr?

I guess "production specialist" are the temps but it still does not make sense they make less than interns.

Interns are likely college students on track for professional roles at Tesla. To get good students at the local tops schools, they have to compete with Google\Apple\FB, etc.
 
This is just plain silly.

The UAW would have to justify its dues and get a raise significantly above the dues.

But that is not the most costly result of unionization.

It is work rules. One of the reasons Tesla is so nimble it that it is able to have employees multitask, shut down old job roles with increasing automation, and move employees to different jobs. With the UAW every change in a worker's duties will have to be negotiated with the Union.

And Tesla has one auto factory for the globe. Shut it down and you shut down Tesla. The UAW would have Tesla by the proverbial ballz. Unlike GM that still has factories in Europe, China, and Latin America going if the UAW strikes.

The quickest way for Detroit to delay the Alien Dreadnought for decades is getting the UAW's tentacles around Tesla.
Huge agree. It is not that hourly costs would hurt, it would be job rules. Illinois road construction still pays for greasers, who are responsible for greasing 1950's era heavy hydraulic machinery. I am not against unions, but when logical job protection makes it difficult to impossible to adapt to new technology and business processes. The UAW has become more flexible, but the rapid pace of change Elon imagines over the next decade is not consistent with UAW control process.
 
When Alien Dreadnaught takes the stage, there will be little need for getting people to the factory. Remember this image of the proposed finished look of the Gigafactory? Not much parking for such a monstrous factory and the world's largest building...

tesla-motors-inc-gigafactory-interior-steals-the-spotlight.jpg


screenshot29-jpg.214160
The first picture could also mean poor planning and an utopian dream. The plan , when that picture was presented, was to employ 6500 people when the factory is complete, just for batteries. The second picture is now only about 600-800 cars. The Nevada incentives depend on the employment number.

Edit: Good recent flyover of Gigafactory.
 
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"Craft restrictions" are no good, they prevent adaptation to new technology and new customer situations, and any modern union contract should not have them. Some of the worst union contracts in the country are due to craft restrictions where different crafts are represented by *different unions*; this has been an ongoing problem in the freight railroads.

Industrial unions organized on a whole-workplace basis like the original CIO (Congress of Industrial Organizations), as opposed to "craft unions" organized on a type-of-trade basis like the original AFL (American Federation of Labor), were actually supposed to get rid of craft restrictions, so it's very backwards to have craft restrictions.
 
This may have been covered previously, if so I apologize up front. Bottom line: California is missing out on a golden opportunity to make money off visitors from out of the area by not charging California state tax on all cars at point of pick up from the Fremont plant. Tesla car production plant is for a lot of us buyers a must see, for me, more so than Disneyland. What about picking up the car without paying California licensing fee, and let the new owner travel to Disneyland, visit friends and family B4 heading home to Timbuck Two and pay their own state licensing fees and obtain their own vanity plate. They could stop in Sacramento, pan for gold, strike it lucky and pay for their MS, MX or M3. ;) That is a win ~ win for new owners, and local/state businesses ~ not to mention spreading the money out a bit.:D

Back in the day, Volvo encouraged this by including travel (taxis, train and boat ~ boat w/car on return). We picked up our first Volvo this way and I blew the second trip off thinking I was too mission critical. What a fool. Bottom line here is that we enjoyed our trip without the kids, stayed in the town where the pied piper of Hamelin originated and a castle enroute to Baumholder, Germany. Did I say this was for European buyers? Okay, it was:rolleyes:

In between the first Volvo and second I was stationed at CSULB (Cal State U, Long Beach) as a Professor of Military Science. When we were ready to return to Germany I went through a nut roll trying to purchase a new American made car and ship it without paying California state sales tax. We gave up ~ too time consuming ~ ended up buying one of the first off the line Volvo 960 sedans, our second Volvo. Yes, I did 125 mph on the autobahn B4 my wife told me to slow down:)

California wake up smell the latte' and encourage visitors to your state. Tesla could help by not charging a destination fee out of the plant too:) If I am wrong about the destination fee, feel free to enlighten me:)
 
This may have been covered previously, if so I apologize up front. Bottom line: California is missing out on a golden opportunity to make money off visitors from out of the area by not charging California state tax on all cars at point of pick up from the Fremont plant. Tesla car production plant is for a lot of us buyers a must see, for me, more so than Disneyland. What about picking up the car without paying California licensing fee, and let the new owner travel to Disneyland, visit friends and family B4 heading home to Timbuck Two and pay their own state licensing fees and obtain their own vanity plate. They could stop in Sacramento, pan for gold, strike it lucky and pay for their MS, MX or M3. ;) That is a win ~ win for new owners, and local/state businesses ~ not to mention spreading the money out a bit.:D

Back in the day, Volvo encouraged this by including travel (taxis, train and boat ~ boat w/car on return). We picked up our first Volvo this way and I blew the second trip off thinking I was too mission critical. What a fool. Bottom line here is that we enjoyed our trip without the kids, stayed in the town where the pied piper of Hamelin originated and a castle enroute to Baumholder, Germany. Did I say this was for European buyers? Okay, it was:rolleyes:

In between the first Volvo and second I was stationed at CSULB (Cal State U, Long Beach) as a Professor of Military Science. When we were ready to return to Germany I went through a nut roll trying to purchase a new American made car and ship it without paying California state sales tax. We gave up ~ too time consuming ~ ended up buying one of the first off the line Volvo 960 sedans, our second Volvo. Yes, I did 125 mph on the autobahn B4 my wife told me to slow down:)

California wake up smell the latte' and encourage visitors to your state. Tesla could help by not charging a destination fee out of the plant too:) If I am wrong about the destination fee, feel free to enlighten me:)

There was a bill for this going through legislation last year but it was hijacked and amended to somehow become a completely different bill: Tesla tourism bill pulled for Santa Clara development – The Mercury News
 
I recalled Uber lost some Carnegie Mellon folks after their acquisition:

Peter Rander, Danny Lange, and Marco Campos.

Uber has lost three of its top self-driving engineers

Following a link off of this Uber link, I learned about 'Cassie', the latest bipedal robot, at this one:
This two-legged robot hopes to one day deliver packages to your front door

So, we already know the two million or so truck drivers employed in U.S. will be layed off in the next 5 - 10 years.
Now it looks like UPS and USPS delivery people will not be far behind. It’s looking more and more certain that soon most non and medium skilled working people are going to wish they were far enough along in their lives to retire before the deck beneath them collapses entirely.
I suspect we'd better plan to bring our personal security droids along with us on shopping trips after 2025.
Those in their 30s to 50s may well harbor resentment against those of us who made it to retirement before the collapse.

Any doubts there are already military brass asking those nice folks at Starship Technologies how soon they
can scale Cassie up to size needed to carry weapons? Then they can rename the company Starship Trooper Technologies!
 
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Elon said no MS-MX with gt 100 kWh packs. Translation, the 2170 cells will not be coming soon to the MS-MX, because packs with the same number of 2170 cells will have 7.5% more capacity.

Why couldn't they make a 100kWh S/X pack with fewer 2170s? It would be lighter which would give you more range and likely cost less. (A lot less for Canadians as that should bring the NA content level high enough to avoid some of the NAFTA taxes.)
 
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