2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mongo]

Looks like a $75K (Canadian dollar) incentive for electric trucks in Ontario is coming. Tesla semi becomes tremendously compelling there.

Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand

"The program will offer buyers rebates of up to 60 percent of the incremental purchase cost of an electric truck, compared with an equivalent diesel vehicle, up to a cap of C$75,000 per vehicle, according to documents seen by Reuters."

How will they set the comparison?
Tesla 180k, standard 80k, -> rebate of 60k, even better savings from day one.
Will this push people toward Founder's Edition? Only 8k more (USD) after rebate.

Edit: may fit better on Semi thread, so moving over there.

 

[ggies07]

nm...

 

[Gerardf]

I doubt Hesla is moving the SP today Gas company actually ruined a Tesla Model S with a hydrogen fuel cell system

Named Hesla..
To me that sounds like hässlich, German for ugly.

Thus Hesla is short for Hässlicher Tesla.
Good name, as indeed they did the impossible, and made a Tesla Model-S ugly.

 

[SteveG3]

looks like Google algorithms pull the most current/top post from Electrek?....

never saw the article on the bottleneck there, and I’ve been on that google page repeatedly through nearly all this time.

what’s more, on my phone, right now that search contains two Electrek articles under news, the fuel cell converted Model S article from an hour ago, and the Thor truck article from Yesterday.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

One "What If?" that keeps on coming up for me:

Are the folks working on the Model 3 production ramp taking in learnings from there and applying them to Model S/X Q4 production? If so, is that leading to better cost savings and higher output on the lines. I'm wondering if there's a potential for a hidden breakout quarter between all of the CapEx for Model 3 to be subverted by a significant decrease in CapEx in handling S/X lines. Thoughts?

That's a great point, even though I'd say probably more of a longer term benefit, which is really what matters to Tesla's intrinsic value.

 

[Reciprocity]

Elon hire this brilliant woman on the spot !!!!!

She is like the female version of me.

 

[avoigt]

For those who questioned price stability (VAT included):

• 220k-229,999 km (~136k-142k miles): 45,000 Euro (~$53,000 USD)
• 230k-239,999 km (~142k-149k miles): 44,000 Euro (~$51,800 USD)
• 240k-249,999 km (~149k-155k miles): 43,000 Euro (~$50,600 USD)
• 250k-259,999 km (~155k-162k miles): 42,000 Euro (~$49,500 USD)
• 260k-269,999 km (~162k-168k miles): 41,000 Euro (~$48,300 USD)
• 270k-279,999 km (~168k-174k miles): 40,000 Euro (~$47,000 USD)
• 280k & higher (~174 miles and higher): 39,000 Euro (~$46,000 USD)

Despite the mileage, they are not cheap – especially for vehicles used as taxis.

That fleet should give nice data points for long term batterie usage....
Tesla taxi fleet in Amsterdam is being updated, dozens of used Model S vehicles going for sale

 

[Off Shore]

Elon hire this brilliant woman on the spot !!!!!

She probably has more influence right where she is. Her Twitter account is new @JosipaPetrunic ‏and I've followed her there hoping for more incisive commentary.

 

[Mike Smith]

ValueAnalyst - are you writing an SA article on the bottleneck fix? If you do it will be on CNBC as well.

I sent Daniel Sparks a message - he said he usually doesn't cover supplier reports but it sounds like he might make an exception here. He's looking into it.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

One "What If?" that keeps on coming up for me:

Are the folks working on the Model 3 production ramp taking in learnings from there and applying them to Model S/X Q4 production? If so, is that leading to better cost savings and higher output on the lines. I'm wondering if there's a potential for a hidden breakout quarter between all of the CapEx for Model 3 to be subverted by a significant decrease in CapEx in handling S/X lines. Thoughts?

I think Q4 is way too early to expect it, but I expect a major re-design of the Model S (2018? 2019?) that greatly simplifies & speeds manufacturing. While it will always be more complicated than the Model 3, I expect volume of 150-200K annually from the space that will produce ~100K S/X this year.

I’m curious how they’ll handle the Model X— whether it will be simultaneously re-designed so they can continue producing it on the same line as the S, or whether they’ll move to seperate lines.

 

[mikevbf]

Elon hire this brilliant woman on the spot !!!!!

Agreed, she gets it and is very articulate. About the only aspect she does not nail in her short interview is how autonomous driving isn't just another aspect of Tesla's business, but will become the wind that makes the electrification of automobiles catch fire. It will accelerate the timeframe of mass adoption probably even faster than she predicts. My guess is that few see how much one will compound the other. But, this is probably more a discussion for the long term thread.

 

[SteveG3]

ValueAnalyst - are you writing an SA article on the bottleneck fix? If you do it will be on CNBC as well.

I sent Daniel Sparks a message - he said he usually doesn't cover supplier reports but it sounds like he might make an exception here. He's looking into it.

perhaps if you send Daniel Sparks the very long list VA presented upthread (post 33774) of the coverage at the time of the mirror image event when the supplier went from 5K to 3K on Tesla's request, it will persuade him that this is worth reporting on.

 

[Curt Renz]

I sent Daniel Sparks a message - he said he usually doesn't cover supplier reports but it sounds like he might make an exception here. He's looking into it.

A half hour ago I sent the Electrek article about the evidence for a possible Model 3 production increase to analyst Efraim Levy of CFRA who has a Sell rating on Tesla. His response was simply, "Thanks Curt."

I did the same for reporter Claudia Assis at MarketWatch, but have not heard back from her. For the past three days MarketWatch has been posting Assis's Tesla article in which she quotes Levy:

A failure to straighten out the Model 3 production issues could hasten that timeline, said Efraim Levy, an analyst with CFRA. But time could be on Tesla’s side, Levy said. If Tesla shows its Model 3 production issues are a thing of the past, the stock would return to gains.

“They are going to straighten it out, the question is when,” he said.

 

[30seconds]

Model 3 VIN #2556 spotted Tuesday at Fremont Delivery Center. I would guess that they are at least 200/ week at this point.

 

[Mike Smith]

Not only does CNBC not cover Tesla resolving its bottlenecks, they're now making Chanos being short Tesla breaking news with a big red banner

When someone is wrong about something for years straight their opinion becomes unimportant, not breaking news.

 

[kbM3]

Not only does CNBC not cover Tesla resolving its bottlenecks, they're now making Chanos being short Tesla breaking news with a big red banner

When someone is wrong about something for years straight their opinion becomes unimportant, not breaking news.

The funniest thing was his example of a lie told by Tesla. He claimed Tesla lies all of the time and the one example he gave was Elon’s statement: “The semi will be released in 2019”.

Maybe he doesn’t understand the complex concept of past, present and future?

 

[Curt Renz]

Not only does CNBC not cover Tesla resolving its bottlenecks, they're now making Chanos being short Tesla breaking news with a big red banner

When someone is wrong about something for years straight their opinion becomes unimportant, not breaking news.

Sixteen years ago, Chanos was right about Enron imploding. He was publicly short Enron stock for only a short while. He has since made a career of promoting that good call, and getting the media to bow to his requests to appear and pass along to the public his latest short selling recommendations. He's been doing this for a number of years with Tesla, leading to severe losses for himself and his followers. Elon Musk is not Kenneth Lay or Jeff Skilling of Enron, but Chanos apparently hopes that by equating them he can get you to sell or short Tesla stock to save his short position and reputation.

 

[Mike Smith]

The funniest thing was his example of a lie told by Tesla. He claimed Tesla lies all of the time and the one example he gave was Elon’s statement: “The semi will be released in 2019”.

Maybe he doesn’t understand the complex concept of past, present and future?

He said factory lines need to be built and 'approved' years before you can use them. Also Waymo is at level 4 autononomy, Audi level 3. He could have said absolutely anything and not been challenged.

 

[Drax7]

The Daimler semis on the road right now and the Audi autopilot are leap frogging
Tesla’s now , says Chanos. What a pack of lies , and moreover other car manufacturers
Are incredulous and corroborate his views on tesla. Pure chicanery.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Similar to the Tesla Grin, there is now the Chanos Grin: An involuntary yet pleasant physical manifestation affecting one's facial features as a result of the amused, giddy feeling one experiences when Tesla Bears talk about Tesla, or just talk.