2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[avoigt]

He means 400kWh free per calendar year. That has been talked about a lot.

(But I don't think the Model 3 is even getting that now... only Model S and X owners)

Allow me too ask again, do you have any prove of claim for that e.g. official mail, EM tweet or video/ audio - otherwise its just saying.

That people talked about it does not mean Tesla ever has committed to it.

 

[ggr]

Let me phrase it this way. Tesla is currently selling all they can make at 25% GM. In 4-5 years, if need be, they can adjust the GM downward to sell out production.

In 4-5 years:
The odds they sell out production > the odds they sell out production AND maintain 25% GM.

This is a simple mathematical statement.

Well, it's a simple statement, but mathematics is about proofs. I can state that 1 > 2, doesn't make it true. I don't see why increasing volume necessarily implies reducing GM. VW Beetles and Toyota Corollas made lots of money for their respective companies, while being the world's best selling cars.

 

[mmd]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance related

A total surprise Even though it walks like a layoff and quacks like a layoff, it mustn't be a layoff because Tesla said it isn't.

On Friday, the San Jose Mercury News first reported that Tesla had dismissed an estimated 400 to 700 employees. That number represents between 1 and 2 percent of its entire workforce.

But one former employee, citing internal information shared by a manager, said the total number fired is higher than 700 at this point.

 

[Reciprocity]

A total surprise Even though it walks like a layoff and quacks like a layoff, it mustn't be a layoff because Tesla said it isn't.

Too late FUDster, the news cycle is already past. Apparently, the world did not come to an end after Tesla fired the most expensive and valuable people to save money. Because companies only fire their best and most expensive employees because they dont want to give them any more raises.

I actually wish your FUD was better, I need more shorts in this stock. Its never going to squeeze with such a small percent of the available float. Maybe 400+ will bring in some more shorts, one can only hope.

 

[avoigt]

yes. plus remember that not only does tesla have the GF, they apparently are still the only company to put a single software architecture across the entire vehicle. its been 5 years since the launch of the Model S and not a single other company is able to update their cars like tesla.

There is another aspect that makes me very bullish on the margin and seems to be overlooked:

Given the large value creation in SW versus HW we should compare at least that part of the business to the SW industry. In other words every piece of SW they push out into an already sold vehicle and charge for it separately is like a pure SW sale and that has today easily a margin of 60% and above. That alone will help to lift total margins to a level not seen in the automotive volume industry.

 

[DurandalAI]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance related

As others have commented before, very rarely does any employee that is fired due to lack of performance admit that their performance output was lacking.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That was from an engineer that Elon has known a long time.

He could have made the $30k marginal cost assertion back when Tesla was designing the 40 kWh S. Even if so, it is still very impressive.

I believe all of you are right. I am just not giving it 100% probability.

Things can happen.

Even if the statement was made when Tesla was designing the 40 kWh S, that would put marginal cost at ~$35k...

Also, I'd like to clarify one thing: even though I think 30% overall gross margin is possible in 2019, I'm projecting 20% for the year to be conservative.

My low estimate is driven by 15% GM assumption for Tesla Energy, which I believe will drive revenue growth in 2019.

Model 3 in 2018, Tesla Energy and Model Y in 2019, and Tesla Pickup/Semi in 2020.

 

[kbM3]

Well, it's a simple statement, but mathematics is about proofs. I can state that 1 > 2, doesn't make it true. I don't see why increasing volume necessarily implies reducing GM. VW Beetles and Toyota Corollas made lots of money for their respective companies, while being the world's best selling cars.

The odds of A AND B occurring = probability of A * probability of B

E.g. the odds of a coin flip being heads AND a dice (die?) coming up 6 are
1/2 * 1/6 = 1/12

The odds of A being true will always be greater than the odds of A AND B being true unless the odds of B are 100%.

Edit: Or the odds of A are 0.

Will that do?

 

[kenliles]

'The Thing'
from Apple's latest updated Titan AP
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

New video purports to show close-up of Apple's updated 'Project Titan' testbed

 

[ggr]

The odds of A AND B occurring = probability of A * probability of B

I.e. the odds of a coin flip being heads AND a dice (die?) coming up 6 are
1/2 * 1/6 = 1/12

The odds of A being true will always be greater than the odds of A AND B being true unless the odds of B are 100%.

Edit: Or the odds of A are 0.

Will that do?

OK, you're arguing statistics with a professional cryptographer here; normally I wouldn't bother replying, and definitely won't any more.

What you say is true if and only if events A and B are independent events. True for coin toss and die roll. But production of a car and sales of that car are very much not independent events.

Take your die roll. Roll it once.
Event A: die shows 1, 2, or 3. Probability 1/2.
Event B: die shows 1 or 2. Probability 1/3. Clearly not independent of Event A.
By your logic the probability of Event A AND Event B (that is, die shows either 1 or 2) is now 1/6.

 

[Runarbt]

This is an exceptional article - thank you for the link! It is **mandatory** to read it for anybody who wants to sort out the threat of competition and does not understand why I repeatedly extol that OEMs are **structurally not competitive" and until this changes all the talk about OEM EV competition threatening Tesla is just a blue sky.

Read this article and then juxtapose it to VW statements about the need for **industry** building battery plant to supply their batteries, or EU calling a conference to come up with a plan for creating **consortium** to supply batteries for EU OEMs. See here for more details on this.

**STRUCTURALLY NOT COMPETITIVE**

Well, I guess Tesla can acept the challenge and become the industry VW is asking for, with their GF2-3-4-5-- etc. :-D If VW cant do it themselves..

 

[Paracelsus]

Very interesting perspective on solar market growth in Australia posted on LinkedIn this morning:

“Our industry will continue to grow all by itself. If we are not prepared to inject storage, we are going to have significant issues, starting in three years time.”

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australias-solar-juggernaut-coming-quicker-than-anyone-parkinson/?trackingId=wfKxrZNP1Kt+JO+UBzHopw==

If anyone interested in the article can't access it via the link please let me know and I will post it or send it to them

edit - added quote from article

 

[3Victoria]

OK, you're arguing statistics with a professional cryptographer here; normally I wouldn't bother replying, and definitely won't any more.

What you say is true if and only if events A and B are independent events. True for coin toss and die roll. But production of a car and sales of that car are very much not independent events.

Take your die roll. Roll it once.
Event A: die shows 1, 2, or 3. Probability 1/2.
Event B: die shows 1 or 2. Probability 1/3. Clearly not independent of Event A.
By your logic the probability of Event A AND Event B (that is, die shows either 1 or 2) is now 1/6.

???? Successive dice rolls are independent.

 

[mongo]

???? Successive dice rolls are independent.

ggr is saying in this case that Event A and B apply to the same die roll.

 

[Intl Professor]

This is beginning to trigger memories of combinations and permutations in 9th grade algebra, unless this is another crazy math conversational amusement. But since my humor is near a child's, this sets me on edge, like a sticky die cast in the real world.

 

[Cal1]

Is Tesla giving the power packs to Puerto Rico for free? I've tried to find any reference but everything seems to focus on Tesla providing a solution. Nothing indicating that Tesla will be making $. Corporate altruism is wonderful when you get big enough. Not sure we're there yet.

 

[Lessmog]

Is Tesla giving the power packs to Puerto Rico for free? I've tried to find any reference but everything seems to focus on Tesla providing a solution. Nothing indicating that Tesla will be making $. Corporate altruism is wonderful when you get big enough. Not sure we're there yet.

Great question for ER! I expect it will be volunteered though.

 

[elasalle]

Is Tesla giving the power packs to Puerto Rico for free? I've tried to find any reference but everything seems to focus on Tesla providing a solution. Nothing indicating that Tesla will be making $. Corporate altruism is wonderful when you get big enough. Not sure we're there yet.

Appetizer might be free/break even, but someones gonna pay for the main course

 

[mikevbf]

Is Tesla giving the power packs to Puerto Rico for free? I've tried to find any reference but everything seems to focus on Tesla providing a solution. Nothing indicating that Tesla will be making $. Corporate altruism is wonderful when you get big enough. Not sure we're there yet.

A lot better and cheaper than an advertising budget.

 

[ggies07]

Nice summary of what's going on:

The Potential Impact of Solar Tariffs in 12 Charts

First, what’s happening in the U.S. solar market today, even before any remedies are imposed?

Tariff risk has caused module prices to increase, a phenomenon unique to the U.S.