2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[mrdoubleb]

My "pet peeve": customer deposits.

There was a bit of a drop from Q4 to Q1 as the last of the Model X sigs and much of the backlog went away. So we went from $664M to $616M. Happy to see this was at $603M at the end of Q2, so indeed, the slide has stopped.

With over 500k Model 3 reservations at $1k each, this would be over $500M. This leaves about $100M for Model S/X, which at $2.5k per car comes down to a backlog of 40k cars. That's roughly 1.5 quarter of production. If we have more M3 or if any of the energy business deposits are counted here, it could be less. Still, it is clear demand has not plummeted like shorts claim.

 

[Cobos]

Good point. I think the spirit of my math is still valid for adding U.S. reservations to the U.S. vehicle deliveries numbers.

And as mentioned above. The reservation rate will probably quiet down a bit from around september 2017. But around Q1 18 your neighbour will get his Model 3 and suddenly you decide to order one today unless you risk your other neighboor getting his M3 before you So it wouldn't surprise me if we exit 2018 with still almost 300k orders unfulfilled.

Cobos

 

[phil0909]

You do the math... I'm not great at it, some say.

Well, I don't know who's saying it, but they have a solid case!

I'm pretty sure Tesla agrees with me and not with you, but I will happily eat my words if the Board does indeed declare a cash dividend this year to rid itself of the unwanted cash. Don't hold your breath.

 

[schonelucht]

No, I can't predict the future.

Thanks for finally agreeing with me. Conclusion : GAAP R&D can be spiky in ways we can't predict since we have not complete visibility on stock based compensation for all employees.

 

[mutle]

With over 500k Model 3 reservations at $1k each, this would be over $500M. This leaves about $100M for Model S/X, which at $2.5k per car comes down to a backlog of 40k cars. That's roughly 1.5 quarter of production. If we have more M3 or if any of the energy business deposits are counted here, it could be less. Still, it is clear demand has not plummeted like shorts claim.

The increased number of inventory sales should also have an impact on customer deposits.

 

[Dynastar]

So probably those 1,800 people ordering Model 3's every day aren't going to be new car shopping for a Bolt, for example. If the yearly selling rate in the U.S. stays at 17,000,000 thats 46,575 cars ordered per day. So the Model 3's order rate of 1,800 works out to 3.8% of all ordered vehicles. Ponder that for a moment...

Not sure how long that goes on for, but as others have pointed out, everyone who gets one of these might sell one or more simply by word of mouth to neighbors, co-workers, relatives, etc. It could be bigger than Amway.

RT

Should also point out that these are net deposits. I suspect that cancellations are peaking right now, and will fall from here.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Well, I don't know who's saying it, but they have a solid case!

I'm pretty sure Tesla agrees with me and not with you, but I will happily eat my words if the Board does indeed declare a cash dividend this year to rid itself of the unwanted cash. Don't hold your breath.

A dividend by 4Q18 is not out of the question.

Rate this post "funny" at your own risk.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Log into the earnings call here: http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/qbdsup2y

 

[tinm]

Listening to the live ER conference call.

OMG am I hearing better audio quality!? Could it be!? Did they actually listen to an advice?

Oh crap. Nope. Elon's talking and it's all broken up. Audio worse than EVER ARRRGH

 

[dirtyofries]

CAN'T HEAR YOU ELON

 

[flankspeed8]

good Lord, fix the audio already....

 

[Dynastar]

Elon literally using a potato as a mic this time.

 

[Zaxxon]

If only they could spend some of that $3B on a phone system built after 1990.

 

[AlMc]

Broadcasting from their basement again

 

[Ovulation]

Has Elon a stroke ?

 

[everman]

Uhhh... can anyone hear him?

 

[mrdoubleb]

great call so far...

 

[Cattledog]

What would the stock price be if they actually ever had a sound technician at one of these calls?

 

[tinm]

Communications continues to be Tesla's NUMBER ONE problem. LOL

I've emailed Jeff Evanson about this in the past. He admitted they were aware their conf calls were lousy. I begged him to fix, hire some top audio consultants, get the best equip. He said he would. He clearly didn't.

This is a disaster.

 

[dalalsid]

I guess we have to wait for a transcript. I can only hear every third or fourth word