2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[CorneliusXX]

Wow that is quite the analysis... if elevators are so much better then why dont they use them in underground parking garages today? How do you resolve the issue of volume. If thousands of cars need to get into the tunnel at a certain point at the same time. Sleds seem crazy for the same reason. You will need thousands of them and they add a lot of complexity. I would say sleds would only be used for ICEv and a toll would be charged to use them, otherwise EVs would use FSD and receive signals from the tunnel's brain for control and navigation. I could be eating some crow, but it seems over complicated and thus expensive and prone for technical issues.

I think the answer could lie in the maglev elevator, or whatever you want to call it. It seems to have some ideas in common with the hyperloop in terms of magnetic acceleration and is easily scalable by adding more elevators to the same shaft.

MULTI - Rope-free elevator system - thyssenkrupp Elevator

it would be easy to have a lot of vehicles moving through a relatively small number of shafts and allow for high velocity movement.

 

[mongo]

I miss the speed and traffic density thoughts on express lanes. On long runs eliminate the cushion.

Sure, density can go up to the point where sleds have train style couplers. Centralized control could help organize cars into destination centric packs which then calls for multiple exits to spread the burst of arrivals.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm excited to see the videos!

On a relaated note, this should get @TeslaMotors some Twitter followers. It's important to me, as a long-term investor, that Tesla brand is increasingly separate and as valuable as the Elon Musk brand. "Key man risk" is one of the biggest risks to the stock price.

 

[tander]

I'm excited to see the videos!

On a relaated note, this should get @TeslaMotors some Twitter followers. It's important to me, as a long-term investor, that Tesla brand is increasingly separate and as valuable as the Elon Musk brand. "Key man risk" is one of the biggest risks to the stock price.




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I think Tesla is pretty solid without Musk at this point, of course the stock would take a big dip and maybe it would slow their future growth but at this point Tesla is built to last for quite a long time with or without Musk at all, and will probably be stronger if he signs of as CEO in the next few years. I believe all his stock grants will be achieved by the end of next year so it will be interesting to see if they have additional goals in the coming quarters. I wouldnt expect him to sign off as chairman of the board for a long time though.

 

[MXWing]

I think Tesla is pretty solid without Musk at this point, of course the stock would take a big dip and maybe it would slow their future growth but at this point Tesla is built to last for quite a long time with or without Musk at all, and will probably be stronger if he signs of as CEO in the next few years. I believe all his stock grants will be achieved by the end of next year so it will be interesting to see if they have additional goals in the coming quarters. I wouldnt expect him to sign off as chairman of the board for a long time though.

When I attach Musk talking down the share price as a black swan event, we certainly have a "key man" risk in play.

 

[SunCatcher]

Stunningly beautiful. RED!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Warren is losing it?

Wall Street nowadays is going gaga over the stocks of auto dealerships (especially after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought Van Tuyl Group) and automakers. I am in the minority in thinking that party will come to an end. Just like Tesla, Apple is not going to be using a dealership model to sell its cars. Just as with the iPhone, the company will want complete control of the buying experience.

If both Tesla and Apple bypass the dealership model, the GMs of the world will be at an even larger competitive disadvantage. They will have to abandon the dealership model too. Yes, I know, selling cars directly to consumers is not legal in many states, but if the U.S. Constitution could be amended 27 times, the law on car sales (which is an artifact of the Great Depression) can be amended as well. The traditional dealership model is unlikely to survive anyway, as its economics dramatically degrade in the electric-car world. A car with few moving parts and minimal electronics has few things to break. Consequently, electric cars will need less servicing, throttling the dealerships’ most important profit center.

I think he probably underestimated how quickly all-electric fully autonomous cars will come to dominate, but at the same time, this may be a cigar-butt investment for him: pay little and collect the cash flows until it dies.

 

[22522]

I think he probably underestimated how quickly all-electric fully autonomous cars will come to dominate, but at the same time, this may be a cigar-butt investment for him: pay little and collect the cash flows until it dies.

Does he do that?

I heard he invests in well run companies and does not touch them.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Does he do that?

I heard he invests in well run companies and does not touch them.

He does both from time to time. Used to do more cigar-butt type investments in his earlier days.

 

[Starno]

What do you think is the likelihood that Tesla Solar Roof commands is going to reserve us a nice surprise for the Q2 earnings ?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

What do you think is the likelihood that Tesla Solar Roof commands is going to reserve us a nice surprise for the Q2 earnings ?

Nearly zero. But I don't think investors will care about Q2 results.

 

[zdriver]

More on the Indiana project. Seems Berkshire is organizing it, and it's been underway for ~18 months. Seems like that may discount it being Tesla related somewhat, but it's at least interesting that the offers made are escalating around the same time as Project TIM and ahead of the Gigafactory announcement(s).
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...ndiana-residents-question-mystery-development

Real estate agents with Berkshire Hathaway have been sending out offers for land in Hamilton County for about 18 months, The Indianapolis Star (http://indy.st/2tC22sR ) reported. The land being sought is near Klipsch Music Center and Hamilton Town Center.

Farmers who were approached said the agents have told them only that the buyer hopes to build something of significant economic value.

Back to Michigan, Benzinga picked up the story earlier this week - A Mysterious Manufacturing Plant, The Country's Largest, Is Planned For Mid-Michigan

 

[Alketi]

Well, Project TIM is not Foxconn. Wisconsin got the plant apparently.

Great summary zdriver. The project would certainly fit with Tesla's plans and would be really exciting. TIM, of course, could be Tesla In Michigan, or it could be named after someone's dog. I guess "Tim" Cook is out, if Foxconn chose Wisconsin. I also wouldn't classify Apple as a renewable energy company, as the property seems to be described.

 

[Alketi]

I hadn't seen this graphic from UBS before. Wow. Certainly interesting. How many mistakes/assumptions can we find?

I see at least two obvious mistakes.

 

[Dennisj00]

I hate to tell the people of Wisconsin but you won't like the 13,000 jobs at Foxcon.

 

[DragonWatch]

Nearly zero. But I don't think investors will care about Q2 results.

I think the M3 launch will over shadow 2Q17 since we already know the deliveries of MS & MX, to include leaning forward to September Semi reveal.

I would like to hear that the destinction between the MS and M3 is now crystal clear and pushing some on the wire buyers towards the MS.

While other car manufacturers are feeling sideways and downward sales; Tesla once again has pent up demand in the form of $1,000 reservations which has to have some impact on ICE car sales and they know it. I see this as a psychological advantage.

Friday is the day and focus for now

 

[Drumheller]

That's why you shouldn't ask like why, well, GM appears to be losing $10,000 a car on the Bolt. No, they're not. They are making it up on CARB credits. But they get the full retail value of the CARB credit, whereas we get the wholesale value when we're lucky. But the CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year. So that's why you'll see, mark my words, it's not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That's on order of 25,000 units a year, or 0.10% of our initial production rate for the Model 3, or 0.05% of what Model 3 will be next year.

Should that not be 10% and 5%, respectively? 0.10% would indicate Tesla is planning for 25 Million initial yearly production rate for Model 3.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Should that not be 10% and 5%, respectively? 0.10% would indicate Tesla is planning for 25 Million initial yearly production rate for Model 3.

Agreed. Typo on transcription.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I hadn't seen this graphic from UBS before. Wow. Certainly interesting. How many mistakes/assumptions can we find?

I see at least two obvious mistakes.

Well the biggest mistake is a lot of these cars don't compete with each other.

Model X next to Chevy Bolt?!

 

[22522]

Speed is a function of magnetic field coupling to the copper conductor and conductivity of the tube.

That means you could slow down the landing by making the tube narrower.

You could also control it by varying the load resistance on each of a series of rings. This would control/accommodate payloads of different weights.