Starting to see the first signs that Tesla did in fact also divert some S and X sales to Europa. Both Norway and the Netherlands saw a big jump in deliveries in June. That means we are potentially looking at a 7k quarter for Europa. China is obviously also a candidate for strong sales due to the small window of lower import taxes. The upshot is that the US may have only seen 8-9k Model S/X deliveries this quarter instead of the usal 10-13k.
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200,000th US Delivery
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
- Start date
Here is a list of links to monthly car registrations for various European countries. Those for June are still up for review before they appear in the final table but you can find them yourself already by clicking on the appropriate links and following national registry websites. There is help available to navigate those websites that aren't in English. Read the top post of that thread for more information.
Sudre
Active Member
So there is a poster on the St. Louis Tesla Facebook group insisting that Tesla has delivered 206283 vehicles in the US. He is not giving out any links for the data but insists the number are all directly from Tesla and they are US sales only.
Has there been any news that has been missed?
G. Michael Murphy
Has there been any news that has been missed?
G. Michael Murphy
deonb
Active Member
What do you mean 'insisting'? He even said himself he's not sure:
EDIT: there is a possibility that although the 200k sales number is hit, they may not have triggered until July because the IRS may only consider a sale final when the cars are registered. If this is true, then all of the dates above will push back 3 months
Sudre
Active Member
Cool. Then you also have the link showing exactly how many Model 3s were delivered to Canada. That's all I was looking for. Without that there is no way to know how many to subtract out of the Tesla number of Model 3s delivered. As far as I know Tesla never informed anyone what the split was.
And no. He is not saying he's not sure about the number sold, "there is a possibility that although the 200k sales number is hit". His "EDIT" is if the sale is counted at registration or delivery. I am not saying he is wrong or right. I don't know because no links can be provided.
I had hoped that maybe someone here might know. What do I get. Someone trying to twist facts.... gee imagine that.
Indeed, now that we have everything, but Spain, it looks like this may have been the second strongest quarter in Europe ever (behind Q4 2017) and the best Q2 of all time with most likely close to 7,400 as the final number.
Let's try some back of the napkin math:
- Out of the 40,740 deliveries in Q2, 18,440 were Model 3. This leaves 22,300 Model S&X globally. (Which is within ~1% of 2017, so pretty much flat YoY in case anyone was wondering)
- Out of the 22,300 S&X, Asia/Pacific is usually between 4-5k per quarter. The last 2 quarters were ~4,200, so even if that stayed flat, it leaves 18k S&X
- Take out Europe's 7,400 and you are left with 10,6k for NA
- Canada did 600-900 per quarter the past year, so just making it very simple, this leaves 10k for the US.
- TMC estimates (courtesy of Troy who runs our spreadsheet) put Tesla's US deliveries of S&X at ~168k at the end of Q1 2018.
- Add to that a very generous share of the original Roadster deliveries at ~2k, just to make this simple, takes us to 170k coming in to Q2
- Add to that the 10k estimated S&X US deliveries in Q2 and you are at 180k.
- Model 3 lifetime deliveries at the end of Q1 stood at 9,952. This has been exclusively US, so it takes us to 190k.
- Model 3 Q2 NA deliveries were 18,840.
And then there is InsideEVs take on the actual IRS language on the phase out...
Changed my vote to June. Typically IRS will only care about when an item is invoiced and delivered, for taxation purposes they won’t be concerned with each individual states registration rules.
If anything I could actually see some early July deliveries counted in June if the customer has been invoiced and paid in the last days of June - but that would not be many.
If anything I could actually see some early July deliveries counted in June if the customer has been invoiced and paid in the last days of June - but that would not be many.
Reciprocity
Active Member
They dunt care about the local DMVs, but they do require the buyer take title, am which can take time.
Inside EVs apparently counted all NA deliveries for a time as US. They corrected this at some point but never updated their charts, so there is a chance that a couple thousand Canadian and maybe even Mexican cars are in the US numbers. I think they will come out with a new article and explain this. Is a couple thousand enough to make a difference. My guess is yes. Tesla sat on cars and are not going to miss 200k my a couple of thousand cars in the last week of a quarter. That would be crazy considering how they quickly reacted to Canadian subsidies, Norway, HK subsidies and Georgia I believe. They always have a plan that is customer centric.
At the risk of repeating myself myself, the reporting requirements are different for buyers than for the OEMs. For instance, OEMs report sales to retail dealers.
They also responded to a sales tax break in Washington State that expired May 31. A large percentage of Model 3 sales were in Washington in May. Everyone in WA who had a Model 3 on order who was going to miss the May 31 deadline had their delivery date pushed back to July at the end of May.
It is possible Inside EVs' numbers are on the high side.
In this case it's a bit confusing because the OEM and the dealer are the same in this case. The law does state that sales to the end user is what counts for the incentive purposes and it also says the date for incentive purposes is the day title is transferred to the end user or financial institution holding the loan.
Agree on the confusing.
I bring up the OEM case to show that the 200k action is (can be?) distinct from the acquisition action. Don't see why that would be different for direct sales...
FWIW Michigan ownership transfer is at the time of title signing and vehicle acquisition, no delay due to paperwork. But you can't buy Teslas here...
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
According to this page there were 4063 Model 3 deliveries in June. But he's only doing guesswork so it's kind of weird to see such a precise number reported. People still don't know the concept of error and rounding.
Tesla Model 3, Model X, & Model S = #1, #2, #3 In US Electric Car Sales | CleanTechnica
Tesla Model 3, Model X, & Model S = #1, #2, #3 In US Electric Car Sales | CleanTechnica
Poll results confirm what actually happened Tesla confirms hitting federal tax credit threshold, $7,500 credit cut in half at end of 2018
