I think that comparing this car to a PC is at least as appropriate as comparing it to a boat or airplane. PCs require little maintenance but the state of the art moves very fast. Boats and airplanes require a ton of maintenance, but the state of the art moves rather slowly. Car technology moves relatively quickly, and I don't see that slowing down. Model S is already behind its contemporaries in adaptive cruise control, pre-collision avoidance, lane departure warning, blind spot warning, etc. A few years ago, that stuff was only in flagship luxury cars. Today you can get pre-collision warning and lane departure warning on a Chevy Malibu (for $400). Google has built driverless cars. In 16 years, I imagine most cars will be substantially safer for inattentive drivers. Even if the cars aren't completely autonomous, they'll probably at least be able to sense when the driver's inattention is making a crash likely. In 2030, are you going to want your teen driving one of those newer smart cars or some 2012 model that doesn't even realize that it's hurtling toward a stopped car at 50 mph?
I think Model S will become obsolete about as fast as any other car out there. Not because of maintenance, but because of a lack of features. If they allow low level 3rd party development through a powerful software development kit, I can see 3rd party people trying to extend the lifetime of the car. But if 2022's feature is heavily hardware intensive, I think you're just going to want to get a new car.
I expect today's cars (either BEV or ICE) will be far more reliable than 1990s cars, but will become obsolete just as fast.
Blue Model S Perf with Pano Roof, Black Interior, Carbon Fiber Accents, 21" Silver Wheels, Sound, Tech, delivered Dec 2012
For me the Model S will definitely be cheaper
Model S vs E60 M5
Model S wins by miles, with the M5s fuel consumption and expensive maintenance makes the model s a perfect replacement
Also hoping for a sizable solar system to offset the electricity usage
Just ran the calculations of lifetime ownership costs. It's actually cheaper to own a Tesla Model S Performance 85 KwH vs a $55k priced ICE. This includes the 10k for replacement battery but also assumes that you own your own business and can deduct mileage. Those with smaller batteries may do better.
Here's the link and spreadsheet. Enjoy!
Some things you just cannot buy.
I buy gas on average 3 times a week, just for commuting, at an average of 10+ minutes per fill up (NJ-attendant only service, admittedly). That's two hours a month, 24 hours a year. One FULL DAY A YEAR! Significant!
Assuming that I hang a charge cord in my bay, connecting should take about 10 seconds on each of 20 work days a month, 3.3 minutes a month or 40 minutes a year. Insignificant!
Now there's meaningful savings!
If I keep the car 10 years and
I ran similar numbers, but compared the Model S to the combined costs of my 64MPG Honda Insight, and my 22MPG Honda Accord. I have a 2012 Honda Accord to haul the kido around and a 2000 Honda Insight for work (that model year only seats two). My Model S will take the place of both cars, and afterrunning the numbers it turned out to be slightly more expensive to have the Model S then it did to keep the cars I have now. But the way I look at it, I'll be getting a lot more car for my money, not to mention the convenience of owning only one car instead of two. So even though it's not going to save me money in the long run, I think it'sworth it.
85 kWh / Silver / 19" / Black Leather / Piano / Pano / Tech / Air / Twin Chargers / P-Sensors / Fog / Sound / Interior Lighting / HPWC
Discovered Tesla 10/8/11 | Reserved 5/12/12 | Joined TMC 10/9/12 | Finalized 10/2/13 | Building 11/27/13 | Delivery Button 12/12/13 | VIN (26297) 12/17/13 | Delivered 1/4/14
Great calculation. However, for comparison purposes, you can actually reduce the own business assumption. Since the extra income per mile you get is the same, and the number of miles driven is also the same, it will add the same amount to both sheets - right?
There have been a number of threads on this topic. Here are a couple that you may find interesting
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