Hi Everyone,
Here is a report I just finished, linked below because it is a PDF.
http://pdmm.net/s/Road-to-700-Billion-219.pdf
Here is a report I just finished, linked below because it is a PDF.
http://pdmm.net/s/Road-to-700-Billion-219.pdf
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Just starting reading - I think I found a typo:
Model 3 ASP is $5,000
This is in the assumptions section. I think you're assuming Model 3 ASP of $50,000
I really wanted to stick to what we know remotely (ASP's, Margins, Market demand, production requirements, etc.) I do think that Stationary battery storage will be big, I'm not sure if it will be Tesla's "thing". My personal opinion is that they should stick to cars.Interesting, but what about stationary battery market?
Hi Everyone,
Here is a report I just finished, linked below because it is a PDF.
http://pdmm.net/s/Road-to-700-Billion-219.pdf
Nice work!
In Tilburg NL tesla is opening aside the assembly factory another 3 times larger factory of 58.000m2 and it is stated that it will be a mix between the factory in the USA and Assembly.
You are probably not know with the Belgian labour laws which cause Genk to close?
Belgium also cannot offer Tax benefits as the European Commission is investigating deals of governments offering incentives going beyond the agreed European agreements on such deals, Luxembourg a specially is under investigation but also Belgium and the Netherlands in a certain extent.
Belgian employee advantages are still there and the government is liberal so I do not see a change in their policies.
Don't bet on Genk, Ford will stop there alike a lot of multinational did in the past few years.
So suggest you change your formats slightly
Production growth in 2016 is based on guidance of 2,000/week by end of 2015... So I'm estimating that it would grow from their. As far as 2017, that large increase would be from the easier/faster to produce Model 3. Page 4 details production growth by model, and my estimated ramp-up schedule (pretty aggressive).Thanks for your time and effort in making this chart. I see that you are projecting 60k units this year with 100% increase to 120k units next year and another 100% increase in production in 2017? Although I like your optimism, I would rather estimate 50% annual growth, anything above that would of course be great. Although I don't think we'll hit 100% growth, anything could happen, including a meager 40% for next year.. thanks again for your contributions.
Thanks for the advise! I have updated with no decimals (Since you can't raise .22 shares haha)I do have one pet peeve perhaps you could tackle, however. You take great liberties with significant digits; even more frustratingly, though, you mix them up. A good example is the table at the bottom of page three - Expansion vs. Cash. Under "Neded Cash" you responsibly limit yourself to 2 or, at most 3 significant digits.....and then belabor us with as many as fifteen!!!! under the "share dilution" column.
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You found an Error! I changed my method for calculating the ASP's while writing the report. The ASP is calculated from (Production ramp, Vehicle type ASP) It's based on how many cars of each type can be created.Can you clarify how you calculated ASPs? I am probably misunderstanding something. For 2017, you forecast 70/30% split for the S and X (105k ASP) and Model S (50k ASP). This implies and average ASP of 90k, not $78947? How did you get to 5 significant numbers? I agree with Audubon that adhering to standard practice here will make the report much clearer.