Elon Musk has made two projections about future growth: "50% annual growth" + "500,000 in 2020". Which is most likely to occur?
Is it possible that both projections can be correct at the same time? Or can both projections not be correct at the same time?
How do the numbers work out?
If we assume that there were (at least) 32,000 Tesla Model S deliveries in 2014, then "50% annual growth" would imply:
2013 - 22,477 Tesla Model S deliveries
2014 - 32,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2015 - 48,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2016 - 72,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2017 - 108,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2018 - 162,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2019 - 241,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2020 - 361,500 Tesla Model S deliveries
Then that would imply that a very large portion of the 500,000 cars in 2020 would be already occupied with the Tesla Model S only.
Then we haven't even included the delivery numbers of the Tesla Model X and the Tesla Model 3 yet.
What does this mean:
1 - The Tesla Model S delivery numbers just cannot keep on growing at 50% year after year.
2 - Or the total number of cars in 2020 is much higher.
Or maybe a bit of both?
And that is most likely, I think.
So, what is a more likely scenario then?
Tesla Model S deliveries:
2015 - 50,000
2016 - 60,000
2017 - 70,000
2018 - 80,000
2019 - 90,000
2020 - 100,000
Or would that be a too conservative projection of growth?
What projection of growth would be more realistic according to you?
Is it possible that both projections can be correct at the same time? Or can both projections not be correct at the same time?
How do the numbers work out?
If we assume that there were (at least) 32,000 Tesla Model S deliveries in 2014, then "50% annual growth" would imply:
2013 - 22,477 Tesla Model S deliveries
2014 - 32,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2015 - 48,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2016 - 72,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2017 - 108,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2018 - 162,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2019 - 241,000 Tesla Model S deliveries
2020 - 361,500 Tesla Model S deliveries
Then that would imply that a very large portion of the 500,000 cars in 2020 would be already occupied with the Tesla Model S only.
Then we haven't even included the delivery numbers of the Tesla Model X and the Tesla Model 3 yet.
What does this mean:
1 - The Tesla Model S delivery numbers just cannot keep on growing at 50% year after year.
2 - Or the total number of cars in 2020 is much higher.
Or maybe a bit of both?
And that is most likely, I think.
So, what is a more likely scenario then?
Tesla Model S deliveries:
2015 - 50,000
2016 - 60,000
2017 - 70,000
2018 - 80,000
2019 - 90,000
2020 - 100,000
Or would that be a too conservative projection of growth?
What projection of growth would be more realistic according to you?