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Prediction competition for 2014

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I had a little idea today about making a guessing competition for total delivered cars for 2014. Everyone is allowed to cast their vote up and until 1 week after the 2013 Q4 ER and then we close this thread or compile a list of everyones guess. That means everyone can listen to Elon in a few weeks and is able to calculate,extrapolate and guess based on the guidance he gives for 2014. Next year, at the Q4 ER we will see who was closest. Maybe we can even have a little price, besides the great honor, like a TMC t-shirt or whatever :smile:

My guess: 44,500

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Alright ladies and gentlemen, here is a compilation of everyones vote. We'll get the answer in the Q1 ER next February. Good luck everyone!
I will start with the lowest guess.


gg-got-a-tesla: 31,000

bonaire: 31,669

Discoducky: 33,333

Robert.Boston: 33,675

JJR64: 34,500

GSP: 36,000

clmason: 36,600

Zaxxon: 36,721

StapleGun: 37,850

mrdoubleb: 38,000

farzyness: 38,500

chickensevil: 38,700

SteveG3: 38,800

PeterW: 39,150

Clprenz: 40,000

rrosenbl: 40,000

gym7rjm: 40,123

Warrenbonz: 40,123

RationalOptimist: 40,309

MikeC: 40,500

DaveT: 41,234

SebastianR: 42,000

kenliles: 42,300

Krugerrand: 42,350

StephenM: 42,500

Cattledog: 42,612

Techmaven: 42,772

Benz: 44,400

Larken: 44,500

TD1: 45,000

TSLAopt: 45,600

jdevo2004: 45,601

vgrinshpun: 46,250

austinEV: 47,000

Jackl1956: 47,000

sleepyhead: 48,300

772: 50,772

Rownolds: 50,773
 
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Before I tell you all what the correct number is going to be, can I insert the restriction that this number is for Model Ss only?


Just in case a certain X factor inserts itself...... ;)


Or should we be more inclusive? ;) ;)
 
So Workingdays.us says there will be 251 work days in California this year. We do not know what the exact output is right now, but they are ramping towards 800/week by the end of the year.

So the conservative estimate would be 700 per week / 5 days = 140 per day * 251 = 35k. But they like to over deliver so I would say 38,000 deliveries this year (plus 20-50 Model Xs just for the bragging rights).
 
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I am going to guess they average 700/week Q1, 800/week Q2 (and announce that at Q3 earnings call), 900/week Q3, 1,000/week Q4. Throw a dozen Model Xs into Q4. Take a week off Q1 and Q3, you get 8,400 + 10,400 + 10,800 + 13,000 + 12 = 42,612.

And they'll come out with a Lithium Margarita that will be the rage drink this summer.