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Thread: 2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise

  1. #141
    Model S VIN #4925 FredTMC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benz View Post
    I think that at least 5,000 will have been delivered and paid for in Q2 2013.
    I totally agree it'll be over 5000 delivered in Q2. I was at teslive and did the fsctory tour. It was great.

    I think TM will report at at least 5200 delivered in Q2. One question in my mind is the % that were thru Tesla's "lease" program. Tesla's Q2 guidance was that their "lease" program will effect their bottom line negatively and that TM would NOT be profitable in Q2 because lease rev and profit isn't recognized immediately.

    Regardless, it will certainly look great if TM delivers more than guidance. Remember that guidance was 4500 US deliveries and 500 on the boat to EU. It's my firm belief that TM put far fewer than 500 cars on the boat to EU in Q2. I believe most of the initial 500 to EU weren't put on boat till Q3.

  2. #142
    Member maekuz's Avatar
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    Even with 500 cars on the boat to Europe it would be 5,100 cars delivered (with 400 cars already subtracted for loaners, etc.). I strongly believe we are looking at a blow-out quarter.

  3. #143
    Model S VIN #4925 FredTMC's Avatar
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    I hope it'll be a blow out Qtr. But there are four major elements to beat vs guidance (IMO):

    Cars delivered (revenue aka "top line") versus guidance
    Cars produced vs guidance
    EPS vs guidance (bottom-line)
    Demand

    EPS in my view is the big question. It's got a lot of variables including:
    - Amount of ZEV credits
    - gm% (production efficiency gains & procurement)
    - effect of "leasing" on profit recognition

  4. #144
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    And TSLA trades up to $133.00 +/- in pre market today. Wow!

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by FredTMC View Post
    I hope it'll be a blow out Qtr. But there are four major elements to beat vs guidance (IMO):


    Cars delivered (revenue aka "top line") versus guidance
    Cars produced vs guidance
    EPS vs guidance (bottom-line)
    Demand


    EPS in my view is the big question. It's got a lot of variables including:
    - Amount of ZEV credits
    - gm% (production efficiency gains & procurement)
    - effect of "leasing" on profit recognition

    Here is my contribution to some of the "elements" above:


    Cars delivered and Cars produced:
    Yes, should be a big surprise, same type of sandbagging/surprise as in Q1. My VIN tracking show 5700 difference between end of Q2 and end of Q1, but even if there are only few cars in transport to Europe there must be some VINs "skipped". Otherwise VINs and all reports on actual production rate (e.g., TESLIVE factory tour figure of 5454, Elon statement of yearly prod at 25000, etc) don't ad up. My guess is that some 200-300 VINS are outstanding somehow, 400 cars are new show room cars, loaners (300 now in Q2 said during general session at TESLIVE), some increased effect of even more cars in transit etc, and that we are at slightly more than 5000 cars delivered for Q2. Still a nifty surprise toward guidance! Note that this aligns very well with guidance of 4500 + 500 cars that never became "in transit to EU".


    EPS and effect of leasing:
    I think that a major uncertainty here for the market reaction at the release of Q2 result are the accounting of leasing revenue. My understanding is that this will have a rather big impact on EPS. Deepak Ahuja said in the Q1 conference call that there was 25% rate of financing, and Elon have said in interviews that there was a "significant increase in demand" after leasing was introduced. It is safe to assume that a rather big proportion of sold cars in Q2 are leased, without full revenue recognition. With full recognition (without ZEM, GHG, CAFE credits) I estimate 440 million MS revenue for Q2 (but with the number of P85+ sold lately, this might even be low ). Let's say 30% are financed by the new lease, and that they only recognize the down payment of 15%. That leaves 440*(0.7+0.3*0.15)=~330 millon, 25% less! Of course the is also less cost, I assume this is distributed in the same way over 36 M, but bottom line and EPS is still greatly impacted due to operating exp.


    In my book it is almost a full 1$ EPS difference (from +0.25 to -0.73). What do you guys think? What would be the market reaction to a blowout production / delivery, but loss due to lease? What will be the impression?

    And any input on how to model the lease warmly welcome! I though there would be some guidance from Tesla on this, but have not seen any so far?


    /Buran - Swedish fan and LONG since model S was released last year, hoping for the TSLA and SCTY investments to pay for my Gen III, so I think I will be long over many Q-calls to come no matter what...

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