Search results

That interview is very interesting. In the same paragraph, he says right now they are doing 25k - 30k annualized. I wish I knew if he is thinking about annualizing 48 weeks or 52 weeks! (25k at the low end implies annualizing 481 or 521 weekly production at the worst case 52 week factor)...

Wow! So Norwegian owners are reporting a lot of expected delivery dates being given out? Are most in Q4? I wonder if the delays we have seen crop up for US deliveries are a result of prioritizing the Norwegian deliveries.

Maybe gone forever after the ridiculous way he was treated by some members on the Tesla fire thread.

Realist, I think you are missing something important. Auto manufacturers pay their dealers for parts and labor related to warranty issues. This is a major source of profit to the auto dealers. Tesla saves on this margin by doing the work themselves at the service center. It's all contained...

I wonder about the warranty as well. Looks low to me too. SEC filings have shown Tesla doesn't always get their books right, so I think you are fair to question this. Having said that, what really goes into the warranty accrual? If there is a bad inverter (hum), is that expense on Tesla for...

I wonder if they might have hit 25% gross margin in September. They had a lot of high ASP cars produced and on the boats in August for Sept. delivery. These hit (Norway etc.) at the same time as the quarter-end production push for US cars. And if you look at the wait time on P cars like...

US delivery data is bad, don't rely on it. This has already been proven in previous quarters. Autodata doesn't appear to pull registration data. Not really sure what they do to gin up their estimates.

Where do Model S's get delivered and serviced in Mexico? Didn't think they had a service center or dealership there. - - - Updated - - - The air bags probably deployed, but can't see them in the pic since they were torched/melted? :)

Big crash, caused fire, this is going to be a big yawn. The last one was more scary because there wasn't obvious major non-fire trauma to the car, which raised concerns about possible spontaneous fire. Clearly this one isn't.

If you want to look for suspicion, look at Tesla! They get ZEV credits for doing a private demonstration to the CARB for something which is not even available on the car. In a rational world, they wouldn't get ZEV credits for battery swap until drivers can actually battery swap. They got a...

NHTSA says no evidence the fire was a result of a safety defect or due to noncompliance. Maybe this means they aren't going to open a formal investigation?

True -- even if the magnitude of views is understated, the chart line is probably very close. Good to see it dying down. Weekend press headlines mostly read positive re: Elon and Tesla safety.

When I visualize the pole-vault/impale scenario, I keep wondering why the object wouldn't just be pushed along the ground in the direction of vehicle motion. It's not like it's embedded in the earth like a pike against heavy cavalry. I really want to see what this impressive road debris looks...

^^^ LOVE that quote! It's why I think the visceral emotional reactions we are seeing on the board against fair discussion that might have a negative implication re: Tesla are so misguided. 24 hours ago, theorizing that the battery pack was involved was heresy, even when caveated that it...

Agree it's not the most compelling point of discussion, maybe not compelling at all, but it is _A_ point of discussion. I already felt great about it. Pack design worked beautifully. The blog reads mostly like a marketing piece to the masses who aren't educated about Model S design. Didn't...

Great response, and you helped me see it from another direction. His statement IS technically correct. Another masterful PR from them. I admire how they've handled the crisis thus far, from a business perspective.

Isn't it f=mv^2? You can make some pretty graphic pictures if you assume the higher order variable is 0!

Not sure what that saying means, but sure sounds wise! Figure out what the fire frequency is in 1 year old ICE cars. If the Model S is better than that, THEN you can claim " the data so far is clear it happens less often in a Model S" Otherwise, I think you have to say we don't have the data...

Perhaps my note wasn't clear. I don't think Model S is more prone with age, but even if it was it's a non-issue since the fleet is not even 1 year old on average. My concern is Elon uses the 150k car fire stat. This includes fires of all kinds for all cars. So lets realize the average age of...

Don't think Elon's use of statistics is legit. He's comparing a 1 year old fleet of Model S's to fire stats associated with a national fleet that averages 11 years old. A big % of those fires are going to be associated with older cars which are more prone to fire. He needs to use the # of...

Elon's blog makes it sound like they have the piece in custody. I hope they post a picture of this thing!

Woah. 55 day delivery for a P? That's like the longest I've ever seen. Hope you get it sooner. That stinks.

Near-term, everything is in the back and locked up for production/delivery through year-end. It's going to be awkward responding to whether it's affecting order trends, because we are at the seasonal inflection point where you would expect orders to decline (or growth to moderate). Attributing...

cross-posted. Have seen no data, but the relationship makes sense.

Don't worry about fender benders. Plenty of posts of big time model s crashes on TMC and not a single report of fire. They might even have their own thread.. haven't looked. We don't have 100% of details, but appears the driver hit something and the damage was caused from underneath the car.

Age might not be that relevant for a Tesla, but I suspect very relevant to an ICE car. So many cycles of heating/freezing, more lifetime miles on the engine block creating more wear and tear, more failure points, etc. The NFHTA (right letters?) data shows most car fires originate in the engine...

Finally someone (else) broke the ice on this point. I got so much negative rep earlier in the thread when I pointed out how the stats shouldn't apply to Tesla, that it wasn't worth pushing the subject! The right comparison is fire frequency for cars that are < 1 year old. US data sources...

This answers the earlier question: Jarvis-Shean has confirmed to WIRED that it is in possession of the Model S at one of its facilities and is “studying what happened.”

Fair point about not wanting the Volt stain. Some part of the population is going to be educated by headlines alone. Just like they were with the Volt. It probably impacts Tesla's business in some way, but as long as the fire narrative is correct, I don't think it's negative for Tesla safety.

Tesla must have the car in their possession, else how could they know that one (and only one) battery section was breached? They must have enough of the structure still there even after the fire dept to see what happened.

He actually did. He explained how his knowledge of the battery vent systems was consistent with the flame pattern in the video. What more do you want from him? You, on the other hand, wrote a dozen posts questioning folks' conclusions derived from knowledge + analyzing tesla's statements +...

Bravo and great post, as usual. When I'm away from the forum, you are the only member I check on to make sure I've read every post when I return. Just wanted to let you know you've got fans here that appreciate your time, care, diligence, and level-headedness. Just not as vocal about it. I'm...

Thanks for posting both!

Ironic that the "dozens" (your words from earlier note) of competing speculative theories on what happened are OK, but my theory isn't, despite me bothering to post all the data points that get me there. Oh, and is looking increasingly like the battery pack was in fact involved. I guess a...

I NEVER wrote that the pack spontaneously combusted. Before you go out of your way to attack me on the thread, please get your facts straight. But, you are right that I'm more interested in the challenges of the Model S than its triumphs. Because I'm already sold on the merits of a...

Too late, you posted the incident report from the fire department which is strongest evidence yet of battery pack involvement. How dare you? It's only a matter of time before you are ostracized and branded a troll and a short seller out to ruin everyone's parade.

I hope Tesla doesn't quote you on that. NFPA says about 150k in cars per year. Then realize avg age of a car on the road is > 11 years, so all things equal Tesla BETTER have a way better per-miles-driven ratio given they are brand new, lower miles, and missing the engine block (the area...

Here's what triangulates me to that conclusion: 1. Tesla's statement about the battery pack architecture protecting the car. 2. Wall St. sources saying they confirmed w/ the company it was the battery (let's see if any are gutsy enough to publish tomorrow!!) 3. Tesla's lack of stating the...

Ownership of a car is irrelevant. 60 vs. P85+ is irrelevant. Though I would wager interested non-owners are probably more objective than owners honeymooning over their car. I've posted a mix of positive and negative messages, including questions to learn more about the issues. I like being a...

I think you misinterpreted my note. Or, more likely, my note wasn't clear. I was just pointing out that if: A. main pack was involved in the fire (as I believe the evidence points to), and B. the driver really did hit something, and C. the ballistic shield battery casing is nigh...

I don't own a Tesla. After a few iterations of the technology and once the kinks have been worked out, I'm a highly interested buyer. I feel zero urgency to endure all the growing pains I read about on the forum. When Teslas are fives times as popular and 10% as cool, I won't feel like I've...

Hmm.. something doesn't add up. The data gives me a pretty high confidence there was pack involvement. And the driver claims he hit something, but the shielding should be darn near impenetrable. 1 of those 3 things must be wrong! Unless the pack failed on its own, and the burst panels caused...

Thanks for posting this. Really gives a good picture of what is breakable on the bottom part of the car (not much). I think someone said the battery casing is quarter inch steel, is that right? The car lowers at highway speed, too, right? That might explain how something could actually hit...

Get in the queue after objective investigations for: 1. deceptive advertising (5.4 star extrapolation, true cost of ownership calculator, showing net price vs. gross price, delivery timing for different car tiers) 2. safety issues (21" premature wear on unobservable inside shoulders, older...

It happened Tuesday morning. 8 a.m. Does anyone have a picture of the underbelly of a Model S? I'm curious what that looks like. Is it just the solid underplate of the battery case or are there other things (Coolant wires?) that could have been damaged and cause a battery fire. Also, to...

Tesla obviously has enough info that they feel comfortable releasing a statement lauding their engineering and design. If they didn't know, their statement should have (would have?) said they were still gathering information and would release more information when available. However, I think...

If you want to judge their statement on minimizing the PR impact of an involved battery pack fire, okay, it's great. If you want to judge their statement based on candor and forthrightness, it's a failure. Say whether the battery pack was involved, or not. I think it's abundantly obvious that...

I'm not CO but have the same interpretation of the Tesla statement. The battery pack sits low in the car. How would the structure of the battery pack prevented a fire from getting to the front of the car, unless the battery pack itself was part of the fire? The statements credits the design...

Someone posted that Elon recently stated a Model S had never been involved in a fire. Anyone know where to find that quote? :)