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2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise

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#41
DaveT said:
I also want to add that 2013 is all about the 25% gross margin and not about shipping volume. So, don't expect TM to ship 25k units this year. I think that's just unnecessary speculation at this point. They gave guidance at 21k units... I expect them to slightly beat it by 1-2k units but again that's a minor issue. The major issue is that they've committed to 25% gross margin by the end of the year and they're fully focused on that.

Also, according to the Goldman Sachs factory tour interview a few weeks ago, one line/shift can produce 20k units per year. So, I would imagine that's why their guidance has always been 20k for 2013 (though they boosted it by 1k at the 1st quarter earnings call).

2014 is a different story. I think they can really push volume next year, 35-40k units.
Click to expand...

+1. As long as they beat guidance all around including deliveries, top line, bottom line and gross margin. If so, the stock will find a new normal base significantly above $100.

Regarding shipments to EU, I forgot that 500 units on the boat in Q2 IS, in fact, part of TM guidance. Whew. Great!
My apologies to EU owners.
 
#44
twinklejet said:
I've just thought of something.. Wouldn't the vampire drain of the battery affect all the export units that are sitting in containers on ships crossing the seas with no power supply?
Click to expand...

It will not. If car is shipped as a whole, the power will likely be shut down. But I seem to reacall that body, battery and drivetrain assembly will be shipped separately and assembled in Europe to lower the import duties.
 
#47
WarpedOne said:
It is still EU spec car. Those are assembled in Netherlands.
Click to expand...

From what I'm hearing from Tesla it looks like the first deliveries to Europe will be to Norway and Switzerland, because they don't have to ship the battery apart from the car. So there's nothing to be assembled in Tillburg. My guess is, that Norwegian and Swiss cars will go directly from the Freemont factory to the respective countries.
 
#51
CapitalistOppressor said:
You are being faked out by the mother of all production shocks. Much bigger even than the one at the end of March for the Multi-Red rollout. Thank the EU :)
Click to expand...

CO...I usually follow your thinking (although there is often Math and analysis involved - which helps)....but "Multi-Red" and "Thank the EU" don't jog anything. Can you be a little more obvious with your thoughts on production and VIN's?
 
#52
CapitalistOppressor said:
You are being faked out by the mother of all production shocks. Much bigger even than the one at the end of March for the Multi-Red rollout. Thank the EU :)
Click to expand...

I hadn't been on the site in March, so I just caught up on the Multi-Red thread. To be obvious, are you hypothesizing no euro production in Q2, all approx. 13,500-7,000 booked as revenue for Q-2 and a 6,500 delivery number for Q-2???
 
#53
I read through this thread, but I still don't have a credible explanation about the VIN difference. (That doesn't involving me selling all my stocks, bonds, houses, cars, dogs etc. and putting it all on TSLA Aug $120 calls).

The first VIN we know of in April was:

NEWDL 04-02-2013, 09:59 AM:
8136 being delivered as I type this!

vs.

kabbyr Today, 06:55 AM #5152
Got my VIN today 1401x. Delivery on the 28th.

So between April 2nd and June 28th, the VIN difference is 5874. But we know that can't be... that's 97 cars per day.

Was there perhaps a gap in the issuing of VIN's? Even if the 5874 wasn't sales, and includes loaners, test drive, lemons etc. the manufacturing rate is too high to be credible.
 
#56
deonb said:
I read through this thread, but I still don't have a credible explanation about the VIN difference. (That doesn't involving me selling all my stocks, bonds, houses, cars, dogs etc. and putting it all on TSLA Aug $120 calls).

The first VIN we know of in April was:

NEWDL 04-02-2013, 09:59 AM:
8136 being delivered as I type this!

vs.

kabbyr Today, 06:55 AM #5152
Got my VIN today 1401x. Delivery on the 28th.

So between April 2nd and June 28th, the VIN difference is 5874. But we know that can't be... that's 97 cars per day.

Was there perhaps a gap in the issuing of VIN's? Even if the 5874 wasn't sales, and includes loaners, test drive, lemons etc. the manufacturing rate is too high to be credible.
Click to expand...


Unless they are working 6 day work weeks - Which would mean 70-71days of production this quarter, even without the 1st week of April and holidays,at 80 cars per day would be 5680 cars. If you also take into accounts the fairly tortured language from the shareholders letter about not counting some Q1 deliveries even though everything was complete but "some paperwork errors" And there could be carryover from Q1. Don't sell the dog, but if VIN's are close and no EU shipment, N. American revenue could be based on 14,000 minus 3100 in 2012, minus 4900 Q1 minus loaners, stores, etc equals 6000+For Q2??? Thoughts?
 
Last edited:
#57
deonb said:
I read through this thread, but I still don't have a credible explanation about the VIN difference. (That doesn't involving me selling all my stocks, bonds, houses, cars, dogs etc. and putting it all on TSLA Aug $120 calls).

The first VIN we know of in April was:

NEWDL 04-02-2013, 09:59 AM:
8136 being delivered as I type this!

vs.

kabbyr Today, 06:55 AM #5152
Got my VIN today 1401x. Delivery on the 28th.

So between April 2nd and June 28th, the VIN difference is 5874. But we know that can't be... that's 97 cars per day.

Was there perhaps a gap in the issuing of VIN's? Even if the 5874 wasn't sales, and includes loaners, test drive, lemons etc. the manufacturing rate is too high to be credible.
Click to expand...

Could they have assigned a lot of EU VINs that will be produced in June/July/August?
 
#60
FredTMC said:
+1. Hopefully we can resolve this possible VIN range "gap" issue and confirm more cars produced than guidance
Click to expand...

So there are no significant gaps between 8000 and 10'000. They were well documented back then:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgGtU6wnKp4CdDZKcGpwWkFqa1l5RjRwdTd2blNzOVE#gid=0

Then I went through the various threads, and tried gather other VINs between 10'000 and 14'000 to try and find gaps. Here are the 10 largest potential gaps. If you have, or know of a VIN in any of these ranges, please reply to this thread (first 3 numbers should be fine).

12144 -> 12805: 661
9808 -> 10357: 549
13435 -> 13812: 377
11711 -> 12061: 350
11380 -> 11711: 331

9555 -> 9808: 253
10357 -> 10600: 243
11141 -> 11380: 239
9332 -> 9555: 223
10647 -> 10843: 196
 
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