Q4 2013 results - projections and expectations

[DaveT]

Q4 2013 Earnings will likely take place at mid-end February 2014 (past Q4 earnings dates include 2/20/13, 2/15/12, 2/15/11).

This thread is meant to discuss Q4 earnings. Please share facts, interviews, videos, etc for discussion. Please refrain from speculation that’s not based on solid evidence or reasoning.

Mod request: can you please create a wiki post for people to organize the latest summary of Q4 info. Please move this info below into the wiki as well.

From Q3 2013 Shareholder letter here are some highlights regarding Q4 outlook:

• "plan to deliver slightly under 6,000 Model S vehicles in Q4, which increases our total expected deliveries to 21,500 vehicles worldwide for 2013”
• "ASPs are expected to be relatively flat sequentially as we continue to see a rich mix of options on incoming orders.”
• "While we expect to achieve our target of 25% non-GAAP automotive gross margin in Q4 (assuming no contribution from ZEV credits), further progress is likely if customers continue to purchase our vehicles with a high option take rate.”
• "R&D expenses are expected to increase sequentially by about 25% in Q4 as we accelerate product development efforts on Model X and Model S enhancements.”
• "SG&A expenses are expected to rise sequentially by about 20%, driven by the growth in our retail locations, service centers and Supercharger facilities.”
• "We expect our non-GAAP profitability to be about consistent with Q3, with approximately 139 million fully diluted shares outstanding based on the current level of our stock price.”
• "Free cash flow is expected to be close to break-even.”
• "We expect to spend about $75 to $85 million on capital expenditures for a total of approximately $250 million in 2013, as we expand our factory production capability and customer support infrastructure."