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Am I right to expect ~200 miles range in winter? '23 MYP

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TL;DR: I had one neighbor complain that they weren't getting the range they were quoted, and I've seen several other posts about the same complaint. Am I weird for not ever expecting to get that from any of my vehicles?!

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Preface: Took delivery of our 2023 Deep Blue Metallic Model Y Performance in September. Unlike some I never expect to get quoted range, though in my 2015 Volt I would typically hit the 35-40 mile range electric only range in the summer. My truck and other gas vehicles I've never hit EPA rated MPG for city or hwy unless I was down hill in Oregon strictly following the 55mph speed limit with strict trooper 🤣.

Last week we took our first "long" drive that would warrant charging the vehicle above 80%. We wanted to see how far it would go, so we did what I felt was a worst case drive. 190 miles round trip from just north of Seattle up the mountains to Leavenworth, WA. We had 4 adults in the car, myself on the hefty side bringing us closer to "5" by epa standards. Ubers were in the garage and had swapped on Geminis with Vredestein 255/45R19 Snow Tires. Climate was set to 68 with seat heaters on for those that wanted them.

Night before I charged to 98% to allow for regen and the morning of I preconditioned while plugged in before departure. Open road all the way to Leavenworth and back temps were 29-40F outside. We were in town for 4 hours with sentry mode on and I preconditioned unplugged for 15 minutes prior to our return trip. Drain while idle/precon was 1KWH.

All said and done we arrived home with 10% battery left. There were 3 superchargers, one at the destination, and 2 en route that we could have stopped if necessary. I was happy with the result and it was within what I expected. What amazed me was how accurate, even with the extra passengers, the estimated charge remaining was even prior to leaving. It was spot on heading out and we were 1% higher than estimated when we got home. Which boosted my confidence for road trips.

Picture tax of my MYP at a stop right outside of Leavenworth.
IMG_7350(2).JPG
 
180 to 200 miles, in winter is a reasonable estimate. There are multiple variables that will impact efficiency and range with the greatest being your average highway speed. Colder temperatures, elevation changes (when climbing), wind and wet roads will all negatively impact the available range. Winter tires will also take their toll on range. The Tesla Gemini wheel covers can improve efficiency and range by 4% to 5% on the highway so if you take frequent winter trips you might want to pick up a set of Geminis wheel covers.

Regenerative braking will be greatly limited when you charge above ~90%; turn on the setting under Pedals & Steering to automatically apply the friction brakes when regenerative braking is limited and you will never notice a change in the way the Tesla Model Y slows as you lift your foot from the accelerator pedal.
 
180 to 200 miles, in winter is a reasonable estimate. There are multiple variables that will impact efficiency and range with the greatest being your average highway speed. Colder temperatures, elevation changes (when climbing), wind and wet roads will all negatively impact the available range. Winter tires will also take their toll on range. The Tesla Gemini wheel covers can improve efficiency and range by 4% to 5% on the highway so if you take frequent winter trips you might want to pick up a set of Geminis wheel covers.

Regenerative braking will be greatly limited when you charge above ~90%; turn on the setting under Pedals & Steering to automatically apply the friction brakes when regenerative braking is limited and you will never notice a change in the way the Tesla Model Y slows as you lift your foot from the accelerator pedal.
Yeah I wasn't sure when that limitation kicked in for the regenerative braking (my Volt it was 100%), I do have that option enabled. I'd thought about the gemini covers for the total stealth performance look in the winter but like the look of them without 🤣. Even contemplated getting them powdercoated bronze before next winter. Hoping to get some actual decent snow though to practice using the one pedal driving in the snow.
 
My goal when I bought my 2023 MYP in August was to be able to reasonably achieve 200 miles on the freeway after 1 year of battery degradation. I've seen that I can actually achieve the EPA rating if I travel about 50-55 mph with little acceleration. But what about real-world, 80-85mph highway? I'll be road-tripping to California (from Phoenix) soon, so I will find out for myself. It would be good set my expectations appropriately.
 
My goal when I bought my 2023 MYP in August was to be able to reasonably achieve 200 miles on the freeway after 1 year of battery degradation. I've seen that I can actually achieve the EPA rating if I travel about 50-55 mph with little acceleration. But what about real-world, 80-85mph highway? I'll be road-tripping to California (from Phoenix) soon, so I will find out for myself. It would be good set my expectations appropriately.
Anything above probably 60mph you're going to see exponential drops in efficiency I feel. But that's an impact you experience with ICE vehicles as well.
 
I just did 113 miles, starting temp 10F, ending temp 21F, using 52% of the battery (94%->42%) with the cruise set at 73 mph for most of the trip. Snow tires and wet roads.

So 113/0.52 = 217 miles total, or 174 miles from 90%->10%
 
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180 to 200 miles, in winter is a reasonable estimate. There are multiple variables that will impact efficiency and range with the greatest being your average highway speed. Colder temperatures, elevation changes (when climbing), wind and wet roads will all negatively impact the available range. Winter tires will also take their toll on range. The Tesla Gemini wheel covers can improve efficiency and range by 4% to 5% on the highway so if you take frequent winter trips you might want to pick up a set of Geminis wheel covers.

Regenerative braking will be greatly limited when you charge above ~90%; turn on the setting under Pedals & Steering to automatically apply the friction brakes when regenerative braking is limited and you will never notice a change in the way the Tesla Model Y slows as you lift your foot from the accelerator pedal.
Don’t forget wind. I did a calculation in another thread about the energy used to overcome wind resistance. As we all know it increased dramatically over 50 MPH. If you have a 15 MPH headwind It becomes the same as driving 75 instead of 60 MPH. Even winds from the side will affect the aerodynamics and thus the efficiency.
 
Don’t forget wind. I did a calculation in another thread about the energy used to overcome wind resistance. As we all know it increased dramatically over 50 MPH. If you have a 15 MPH headwind It becomes the same as driving 75 instead of 60 MPH. Even winds from the side will affect the aerodynamics and thus the efficiency.
I didn't forget wind, "wind and wet roads will all negatively impact the available range".
 
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I didn't forget wind, "wind and wet roads will all negatively impact the available range".
Oops - missed that when I read your post.

I found the other post where I made the actual calculations. Essentially, the wind resistance doubles between 50 and 70 MPH. A few posts from mine someone else posted a graph showing all the components of power consumption and how they compare (tires, drivetrain, etc.)