Why wouldn't the first mover to autonomy dominate, especially if it's Tesla?
It’s possible, yes. But I have never counted on Tesla dominating autonomy. If ARK Invest’s model turns out to be accurate, a 5% or 10% global market share over the long term would be plenty. That would equate to $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual revenue. At a revenue multiple of just 1x (the average for the S&P 500 is 1.5x), Tesla would increase its market cap 10x to 20x.
It would be ideal for me to invest in multiple companies working on autonomy, actually, if they had a similar market cap to Tesla and I had similar confidence in them. (I elaborate on my views on that topic in this thread.)