TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Causalien]

So the play for next few months. I believe November when cash flow positive gets announced. Stock price finally reaches $400. That's when the short squeeze starts.

If any of you bought long term calls before ER, I'd aim to sell some calls OTM around that time. For sure the volatility will be high then.

 

[bdy0627]

But, but it was supposed to be a horrendous ER!! WTH happened?!

Yeah, no kidding. What did happen? Now that we got through it, it all seems pretty obvious in hindsight.

 

[trils0n]

Everyone from Tesla seemed so happy and relaxed on that call. Usually they seem to be on the defensive as if anticipating attacks. Great call.

 

[Todd Burch]

I've listened to damn near every earnings call for the past 5 years.
Hands down this was the best one EVER.

Yep. Of every CC since the IPO, this was the most perfectly executed. Masterful. Tomorrow’s going to be fun.

My LTS (large testacle strategy) is going to play out well.

 

[dc_h]

3 million shares after hours and up 26.42, or about 9%. Congrats patient longs and crazy traders, that was awesome.

Cash flow and GAAP profits going forward
Model 3 production ramp steady path to 10,000
Ramp less expensive than originally estimated
Revolutionary AI chipset
Full self driving in Q4
Shanghai plant funded by local banks - lower cost of capital
Shanghai online in 2020
Semi in Sparks? Elon’s nervous laugh after Gali’s Question was awesome.
Apology tour would make sour grapes rude on CNBC & Bloomberg tomorrow

 

[skitown]

But, but it was supposed to be a horrendous ER!! WTH happened?!

 

[Gifford 3]

Worth my trust in Elon as a long term shareholder endured the FUD before this ER, great reward.

 

[Boomer19]

I've listened to damn near every earnings call for the past 5 years.
Hands down this was the best one EVER.

it was a good one. still some questions. still hurdles to overcome.
for stock, i think it’s reasonable to be optimistic. but i don’t doubt for a second that it will continue to be picked on and manipulated at any opportunity until all convertible debt is off the books (mar 19 and mar 21). so just be cautious and pick your spots. as far the the company is concerned, looking pretty good, keep up the good work tesla team! continue prod ramp (excited for the next step changes), get those service and delivery problems unkinked, and you’ll be golden.

be interested to see what @Papafox and @jhm think the action will be like tomorrow and over the next few days. will it be sold into trading or will we see solid footing with buyers taking some ground back.

 

[sundaymorning]

$4.22 per share loss

BRB running to The Home Depot for some $ROPE

Are you done hanging yourself?

 

[Todd Burch]

Is that Curt Renz?

 

[omarsultan]

Man, $TSLAQ twitter sure is cranky right now..

 

[Cosmacelf]

So the play for next few months. I believe November when cash flow positive gets announced. Stock price finally reaches $400. That's when the short squeeze starts.

If any of you bought long term calls before ER, I'd aim to sell some calls OTM around that time. For sure the volatility will be high then.

I suspect that this ER will be sufficient to start a massive rally. I don't think next ER is needed. Just my gut feel...

 

[bdy0627]

Great clip! Someone should lob that over to the twitter shorts with their shorty air force flying over thousands of Teslas daily, SEC violation theories, lawsuits, fraud, serious demand problems, and all the other BS they spout about every day. They were absolutely salivating over this ER.

 

[RobStark]

NO CAPITAL RAISES going forward. Can grow based on internal cash. That's huge.

He did say they are raising cash through debt in China for the Shanghai GF.

No more equity raises.

 

[ABCTG]

JB: most of the areas we struggled with, were areas we outsourced.So we've had to take them on and make them better.

Very rapid iteration between design and production is very helpful. Made a design change in battery models, will hit Q1, lighter, better, cheaper. [This is what they do in SpaceX, surprised it took them so long to do at Tesla].

They were surprised at the lack of results from contractors who work in the auto industry.

Elon going into the factory and being focused on the 3 and getting down with the Tesla workings is what was needed.

 

[Dwdnjck]

I loved how Elon and JB we’re finishing each other’s sentences.

 

[dmunjal]

No such notice from regulator.

This was the "Wells Notice" that shorts have been harping on for months. Even Quoth the Raven dedicated an entire podcast to it. Great that this has finally put to bed.

 

[Yonki]

12Q: The youtube guy (I think): Will Tesla ever produce vehicles at GF1, and how much Model 3 technologies does Semi use?

Elon: Can't answer. Semi will indeed use a bunch of Model 3 technology.

Q: How are you allocating cells between vehicles and Tesla Energy?

Deepak: Makes sense to prioritize Model 3. But we are adding a ton of capacity.

JB: Maybe only 1 Gwh for Tesla Energy, but that's huge. Our Tesla energy ramp is really fast. Cell Limitation: We also do use LG and other vendors for Energy. They did shut down one cell line from Energy to Model 3 at one point.

Running into issues like needing new electricians. Are actually looking to train electricians.

Long term, energy will catch up to vehicle business.

Agree on that being a great call overall (and very happy with the AH Market Action), but this answer to Gali's question bugged me a bit. 1GWh is not huge, if the demand and market size is so great. It's 2-3 week's worth of Model 3 batteries. I understand they want to prioritize Model 3 production, but I'm tired of waiting for Telsa Energy to take off. (And I'm tired of waiting for my PowerWall! It was supposed to be installed in May, but I'm still waiting. )

 

[defc0n]

Anyone think margin calls will influence the SP tomorrow?

 

[Yonki]

I loved how Elon and JB we’re finishing each other’s sentences.

Sounded more like Elon frequently talking over JB and not letting JB finish his thought. Found it a little frustrating.