TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

That implies a lack of participation by institutions today other than hedge funds. October 31 marks the end of the fiscal year for many of them. Under the current two-day settlement rule, yesterday would have been the last day to complete their "window dressing" portfolio rebalancing.

Excellent comment, Curt. Thanks for your keen insight!

Do you think that today's step up to $340 could be related to some of those same said large institutions wanting to increase the net value of their existing TSLA holdings for their FY end?

Cheers!

 

[sub]

Jaguar Land Rover says sales plunged 13.2% to 129,887 vehicles for the three months to 30 September.

The UK’s largest car maker reported revenues of £5.6bn and a pre-tax loss of £90m on the back of lower sales.

But didn’t Cramer just say that the ipace out sold Tesla in Norway in the FIRST month of this qtr?

 

[Alphacrux]

If it breaks out of the $340 resistance we will see a double candle wick back flip crescendo. Of course we could also see a hammerhead star shoot followed by a cigar top.

Or a kolvoord starburst.

 

[alset92977]

Alright! 340! A good MOPAR number!

Sure is! Calls for a '6 pack' AAR

 

[Alphacrux]

Teslarati reports Tesla gets upgrade from hold to strong buy on Panasonic news from Zacks

 

[SpaceCash]

watch them drop a FUD piece any minute now

 

[wipster]

Sure is! Calls for a '6 pack' AAR

Ha! That would truly be awesome! How did you know I was thinking about my 'Cuda? '68 Notchback, but cool nonetheless...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Teslarati reports Tesla gets upgrade from hold to strong buy on Panasonic news from Zacks

I wonder if this upgrade was the reason for today's jump.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Couldn't sustain $340. Bummer!

Fat lady not done singin'...

 

[SpaceCash]

I wonder if this upgrade was the reason for today's jump.

TSLA doesn't need any catalysts at this point. Valuation is preposterously low in light of 3Q report and many other factors. But I'm sure upgrades help

 

[Artful Dodger]

Teslarati reports Tesla gets upgrade from hold to strong buy on Panasonic news from Zacks

Tesla gets 'Strong Buy' rating amid Panasonic's pledge to ramp Gigafactory 1 battery production

 

[Unpilot]

If we don't close above 340 I suggest SpaceCash eats his hat...do you have a hat SpaceCash?

 

[Ratanpara]

I swear it is going to be so cute to look back at all this post's in a few years. And unlike Hittman I will admit I was wrong if the stock does not at least double in the next two years.

At some point Tesla will get decoupled from traditional Auto , over long term few scenarios will play a huge roll in how market will value Tesla, right now they sell close to $8 K worth of software on each car, If Their Neuron Network becomes second to none, could they go for licensing deal with other companies ?, that would be huge margin, If not they could become highly efficient to make cars while competitors stay dumb, basically Tesla need very high margin business within to take it to next level just like Amazon cloud and advertising business.

 

[Tslynk67]

If we don't close above 340 I suggest SpaceCash eats his hat...do you have a hat SpaceCash?

Maybe some of his bling?

 

[SpaceCash]

If we don't close above 340 I suggest SpaceCash eats his hat...do you have a hat SpaceCash?

XD nah I don't look good in hats.

Actually I have an old Navy cover sitting around somewhere...

 

[Tslynk67]

This is pretty good price action on what is relatively low volume. I know some of the other tech stocks are blasting higher, but we have to remember they've just dropped 30% in the last two weeks, where as $TSLA gained 25% in the same period.

Also, the other big tech stocks are 25-30% away from ATH, $TSLA only around 13%...

So it might be a little frustrating, but looking at the wider picture, it's really quite OK.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’m loving the slow short burn, let it sink in slowly. I’m fine with it slowly moving into the 340s, then 350s next week. Markets will likely recover once the mid term election is over, which is around November 7th.

 

[Starno]

I think Tesla's FSD is coming later next year. Not in the sense that we can sleep in the back seats - we use it like using autopilot, pay full attention all the time... The car should be able to handle everything. True L5 is a wild guess. I think around end of 2020.

Big step will be once it can act on road signs. Stop signs, red lights, priorities etc.

Then it will also be how to navigate in parking lots where there are no clear navigation signs.

 

[jhm]

Folks, please take the Starlink junk out of this thread. You know it does not belong here. So set up a dedicated thread aleeady.

I will continue to disagree with nonsense that that is way off topic.

Edit. Same goes for NN, AI, GPU and any other topic of geeky self-indulgence.

 

[Buckminster]

Seems unlikely due to the still high capex related depreciation & amortization costs, also, I probably missed some context, what would be the motivation?

• S&P 500 inclusion requires four profitable quarters in a row by some sources, five by others, i.e. it would happen around this time next year or early 2020. Current inclusion criteria used by the S&P 500 committee seem to be somewhat opaque, but I don't think there's a rule to have a profitable year, is there?
  
• Posting too much profit just increases taxable income and taxes - which Tesla could have invested into growth instead.
• Most valuation metrics use a rolling metric of quarterly results, with no real notion of the financial year. So for example TTM is trailing-twelve-months.

The 'Tesla never had a profitable year' meme, while technically still true, has died with the Q3 results - and shorts have no inhibitions to lie or mislead about Tesla, so they'll just make up new false memes.

Nor does it really matter, because claiming at this point that Tesla is not profitable is a self-defeating argument, like it was to claim in 2008 that the iPhone is a dud.

I can't believe that the S&P rules are not more straightforward. I thought June 2019 was almost certain. This is surely the only thing that will kick out the shorts without doubt. I don't like the the idea that we are gonna beholden to a committee made up from the establishment. Might as well ask the SEC if we can gain membership? I'm sure Elon will tweet on the subject to make things right....

I agree, in fact I think Tesla's "FSD and ride-sharing moat" has even more elements to it:

• Tesla's AI Chip: Competitors cannot easily copy the AI chip that is already 10 times more power-efficient than one of the top providers of such solutions, NVidia. Designing a new chip takes at least 2-3 years - but the cycle is often longer. So for years they won't be able to emulate Tesla's V10 neural network layers in real-time on a real vehicle.
  
• Tesla's labeled training data: competitors cannot easily copy the labeled data (images) that Tesla's AutoPilot division collected and created in the last 5 years or so. This is a huge database of probably hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) of images, carefully categorized. This is the 'secret sauce' that trains the vision network to recognize objects and weird scenarios.
• Tesla's training hardware: It's unclear whether Tesla's AI hardware includes back-propagation support: if it does then their own hardware will also allow much more power-efficient (and thus cost-efficient) training of their networks. As the size of neural networks increases the cost of training increases exponentially, so there's a true "wall" that makes training performance a real issue. Karpathy is very focused on two issues: performance and the process that creates and maintains the labeled data, and performance is a key issue both on the vehicle platform and on the back-office platform that trains the networks.
• Tesla's lack of LIDAR: Most of Tesla's competitors (Waymo, Ueber, Lyft, etc.) took the unnecessary detour of using LIDAR data. This pollutes their neural networks and their development teams: there's a lot of inertia and vested interest in keeping LIDAR - but in the end it's a dead-end and a significant cost. This might take years for them to sort out internally.
• Tesla's "shadow mode" testing: Most competitors rely on human test-drivers and hundreds of cars to train their self-driving solutions. Tesla can deploy their new networks on their fleet and test the new network in 'shadow mode', and compare simulated AutoPilot reactions with how the human driver (or the active version of AutoPilot) takes. This speeds up training, testing and safe deployment enormously.

And, to make the list complete, here's the ones you already listed:

• Tesla's installed base/fleet: A fleet of over 300,000 HW2 or later vehicles already includes all the cameras, radar and sonar sensors for practical FSD. This not only gives Tesla an easy customer base to sell an FSD solution to, but it is also a feedback loop to improve the networks.
• Tesla uses their market leading EV as a ride-sharing/renting fleet: A fleet of EV vehicles that are the most power efficient mass manufactured passenger EVs on the planet, with a component count a fraction of that of a comparable ICE vehicle (~40k parts versus ~10k parts in a Model 3) has both much lower "fuel" costs and lower maintenance costs. So for ride-sharing and automated vehicle loans Tesla has a superior price point that ICE-fleet competitors such as Ueber or Lyft won't be able to match.

I want to believe everything you say.
I should believe everything you say.
I do believe everything you say.
SHOW ME THE MONEY ALREADY!