TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Richgoogol]

Like he said, he's forced to make short term decisions vs long term that he wants.

We should expect similtaneous investments on all fronts - Y, Semi, GFs, energy - after going private

Well that could also involve massive Q3 earnings beat. Which is also short term. If he truly believes it’ll happen, then why the rush to take the business private.

 

[Ocelot]

Well today was a bad day to be away from information.

Trying to digest it all.

As a peraon who is all in....I am feeling somewhat dejected.

1. Seems all my Leaps above 420 will go to zero?

2. All of my holdings are in a canadian RRSP. Essentially a tax free retirement account until you withdraw the money. Tsla was my 10-15 year retirement plan. So know to keep my shares i would have to sell....take money out of account, get taxed 50 per cent and rebuy my position. Essentially losing half my shares. I do not have funds outisde this account to buy tsla. I hope i am misreading this...and please if someone has advice, i would appreciate it.

First lost out on short term calls after Elons squeeze tweet, and now on long term calls. Cant seem to win.

 

[ZachShahan]

Lol, what an absurd statement from Elon Musk. Regardless of your opinion on the company, Twitter is not an appropriate place for those types of disclosures.

Out of all the funny jokes today, this one made me laugh the most.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Experts Cast Doubt on Musk’s Envisioned Buyout of Tesla

A special-purpose vehicle that is accessible to all shareholders would be unprecedented, lawyers said. Tesla would effectively be creating a new public company and would need to file a registration statement with regulators.

 

[mongo]

Ever submit an order when your phone said 7:59 only to have the broker tell you it was 8:00?

Regarding the spike. In a typical squeeze, the sellers expect to pick up shares on the downside. And some non-shorts trade on the up side. In this situation, the only people buying above 420 will be shorts. The stock has never been that high, so there will be no one with a vested position to keep the price above 420 once the shorts are covered. Tesla fans will already have their positions. So the ticker will say: Ask of 3k, bid of 419.99 and volume of zero.

 

[madodel]

I have to admit Elon caught me off guard both times. The Q2 results/ SP take off (I though I had time till Q3 to buy in) and today. I was considering expanding my position after selling more index funds and now this. Takes until next day for funds proceeds to settle. Watching action and biting my elbows... Lets see if I can catch the last carriage of the train tomorrow.

You and me both. I just rolled over an ancient 403b to an IRA and was planning on using the cash to buy TSLA shares. Now I'll wait and enjoy the show for a while.

 

[Moderatefan]

Well that could also involve massive Q3 earnings beat. Which is also short term. If he truly believes it’ll happen, then why the rush to take the business private.

Yes, Q3 will still show the capability to other automakers, it will not go private that fast. After that though, no incentive to be frugal. Musk is not getting younger and has limited time to get as much done as possible.

 

[ZachShahan]

He's talked about how he wished it were private many times. Doesn't like to be constrained by market demands.

He's also very bothered by the media attacks ... for good reason.

I see this going through.

 

[Jayjs20]

why calls that are over 100 ITM?

It just happens to be where the largest profit is if this strategy works.

For example:
For target 320, the premium is 94.13, so 42000 - 32000 - 9413 = 587 per call option, so the profit per call option isn't as big
If you do 350, the premium is 74.98, so 42000 - 35000 - 7498 = -6972 per call option, so you'd actually lose money

Based on the current option prices, there's a bell curve that tops off around target price 210 for me

I've attached what I have on my excel sheet to show what I'm talking about.

 

[Unpilot]

He's also very bothered by the media attacks ... for good reason.

I see this going through.

Yeah I can only imagine sleeping at the factory...living breathing this company.....and getting slammed as a fraud and a looser.
I might be a little peeved as well.

 

[ZachShahan]

Owning TSLA stock is almost as exciting as driving the cars!

Almost?

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Musk's tweet could be securities fraud if he was trying to manipulate the market, says former SEC chair

Again, this is the Former SEC chairman with no position in Tesla.

CNBC: Tesla weighs taking company private, but no decisions made yet

Although Musk mentioned funding in his initial tweet, a blog post from Tesla did not include any mention of financing. CNBC also contacted a number of Wall Street banks and none of them was aware of any transaction or had committed to funding a leveraged buyout of Tesla.

WSJ: Experts Cast Doubt on Musk’s Envisioned Buyout of Tesla

A deal of this magnitude or size is unprecedented. You're all betting on Musk's word now. For any buyer (ex: Tencent), where is the other party announcement? Why is no one taking credit for the largest privitization in financial history?

Still no message from Tesla Investor Relations, or their CFO.

Please, please, please carefully consider the risk that Elon was lying about having a buyer lined up.

Saying this not as a short, but a concerned human. Some of you have life savings in Tesla - maybe it's worth taking some off rather than holding out for that last 10%?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Well, at the end of the day (it's 2.22am here...) I just hope that the deal will work for all non-US shareholders, and I'll be happy.
Actually, I never sell, I never could afford more share than what I have now, and my time horizon is 5+ years.
ANd I could actually make a lot of money *not* reading this amazing forum and actually working!

 

[Quassinoid]

Anyone care to speculate on when the shareholder vote will take place? I'm guessing late this year or early 2019.

 

[Yonki]

1. Seems all my Leaps above 420 will go to zero?

It appears there are two ways >$420 LEAPS could retain value, or even be profitable.

1. If there is a short squeeze in the next day or two pushing the stock price higher than $420 (might need to be higher than your strike price - I'm not sure; these are interesting times).
2. If Elon's plan to take Tesla public fails or goes through at a higher price.

I must have a guardian angel because right after the Saudi announcement I decided to sell 70% of my $500, $600, and $700 J20 options. Unfortunately I didn't sell a big chunk of $700 J20s, so I'm hoping for one of those scenarios to play out (hoping for 1, will settle for 2!).

 

[Revhappy2]

I read the letter and I totally understand the reasoning. But if I were him, and I have full confidence in showing profitability from Q3 and onwards. I would not let the shorts down that easily. This is essentially offering them a “cap” in terms of their losses. Now if I’m having doubts about showing profitability, then I would think this is the way out.

I agree with this. Tell me all of you TSLA bulls, hand over heart, is $420 what you were waiting for? This is like an easy escape for the shorts. Something is definitely fishy, it doesn't add up.

 

[madodel]

I called Fidelity today and they say it is a private equity fund that is not owned/run by Fidelity and Fidelity can not sell it. They said they have been getting calls all day about it since Elon mentioned it. So does anyone know anything about this SpaceX equity fund? According to Elon it only has a liquidity window every 6 months to buy/sell. But buy from who?

 

[Todd Burch]

Trying to get a grip on what's going on here.

100% of my TSLA investment is in common stock. Long term I intend to keep it all in TSLA (or private Tesla?) for quite awhile.

Suppose over the next days the price spikes like the VW squeeze--let's say $1,000/share for the purpose of argument, due to short covering, then starts dropping quickly back toward the $420 level. Would it be a good idea to sell at the peak of that spike, wait for the price to come back down, buy back in, then let my shares go private? Or would it be better to just hold for some reason?

Timing the spike would mean short-term capital gains for me, but the potential spike would greatly overcome the additional tax.

Could use some basic explanation on the possibilities of what's likely to happen here, and what would be good strategies in various scenarios.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

So does anyone know anything about this SpaceX equity fund? According to Elon it only has a liquidity window every 6 months to buy/sell. But buy from who?

WSJ says that Fidelity is not a part of that equity fund:

Experts Cast Doubt on Musk’s Envisioned Buyout of Tesla

It isn’t clear what Mr. Musk meant by that reference or how a special-purpose vehicle might be employed in a buyout of Tesla. Fidelity’s flagship mutual fund has invested in closely held SpaceX, but no special-purpose vehicle was involved, according to a person familiar with the matter.

 

[generalenthu]

I called Fidelity today and they say it is a private equity fund that is not owned/run by Fidelity and Fidelity can not sell it. They said they have been getting calls all day about it since Elon mentioned it. So does anyone know anything about this SpaceX equity fund? According to Elon it only has a liquidity window every 6 months to buy/sell. But buy from who?

anyone who wants to sell?