TSLA Investor Discussions

[ppl]

Don't forget that the battery cells come from Panasonic, not from Tesla itself. So it depends on how the price is calculated. In theory, a 40 kWh battery might only mean that Panasonic makes less money, while for Tesla the difference might be much smaller that one would think.

Tesla does put all the tiny cells into the battery pack. Panasonic only supplies the small cells. Does anyone know the duration of Panasonic contract or whether terms are yen or dollars? The yen has dropped a lot with the new Japanese gov trying to lower it further. Would be a nice cut in costs to tesla if they can take advantage

 

[zingbow]

"fluctuations in the value of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar as our battery cell purchases are currently denominated in yen." according the http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312512402293/d413621dex991.htm

 

[mitch672]

Tesla does put all the tiny cells into the battery pack. Panasonic only supplies the small cells. Does anyone know the duration of Panasonic contract or whether terms are yen or dollars? The yen has dropped a lot with the new Japanese gov trying to lower it further. Would be a nice cut in costs to tesla if they can take advantage

That's a worldwide trend (printing money, devaluation of money) central banks around the world are all doing the same thing.
Has the US Dollar fallen more, less or the same as the yen? Hard to say. Currencies world wide are headed for the crapper...

 

[gregincal]

1) I agree that over the long haul, and for long term investors such as myself, it won't make a difference. In the short haul though, the affect on revenue of building 40's primarily can be a shock to investors, especially if they haven't been prepared for it. If an 85 has an ASP 20k higher than a 40 on average, and assuming margins are the same for all the cars Tesla builds, they may find themselves building 5 cars to get the revenue and margin they that they get for building 4 today. That may not sound like much, and it's not a long term or permanent problem. But that kind of lumpiness in revenue streams without any warning to the investors is a way to build distrust in one's accounting practice.

If my post reads as a sky-is-falling, or that somehow Tesla is in danger of going bankrupt, then clearly I've written what I intended to say very poorly. I see short term lumpiness in revenue (and therefore margins) coming Tesla's way. It is inevitable if they do the right thing and focus on the 40's and other options that they haven't been able to build. My only point is that when I listen to the earnings call and read the report, I want to see Tesla talking about the short term lumpiness. (Transparency!)

In the end, the only way I see this being a serious negative for the company is if they don't talk about it, and then have to explain what happened (past tense) in the Q1 or Q2 earnings call. That sort of a conversation that could easily be anticipated lowers investor confidence. Much as I love the company and look forward to driving Model X, it will surely lower my confidence in the company as an investment, if for no other reason that this sort of dynamic in the business is what they need to be explaining before it happens so we're all ready for it when it happens.

Personally I don't believe the percentage of 40kWh cars is that great (less than 15%), so even next quarter when there's more of them they will still be a minority of all cars built. The price difference of standard suspension is small, so I can't imagine that will make any difference to the bottom line. Probably made up for by all the red cars they will be building, which chances are will be mostly higher end cars. I doubt there will be a signicant impact to the bottom line.

 

[Clprenz]

Actully the amount of 40kwh is 8% and 16% for 60kwh, 38% for 85kwh, and 38% for perf. 85kwh. That is from 333 responses. just made a quick survey to figure out how much people are spending on options: Cost of your options, View on Tesla
I'll post results soon

 

[carrerascott]

How many companies have their product tested all day on CNBC? This is amazing press (as long as nothing goes wrong, of course). Stock is showing the reaction today, too.

 

[ppl]

"fluctuations in the value of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar as our battery cell purchases are currently denominated in yen." according the http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312512402293/d413621dex991.htm

Woo hoo. That is great. Yen has dropped more than 10 percent in relation to dollar. Will look good next qtr

 

[Citizen-T]

Market seems to really want the stock price up here when Tesla reports. Interesting.

 

[hershey101]

Market seems to really want the stock price up here when Tesla reports. Interesting.

Don't get too excited... Keep in mind that the markets are at an all time high and this will come crashing down when the market pulls back (if not now then in a month or two)

 

[carrerascott]

A lot more people are aware of TSLA than were aware of it a week or so ago.

I was at a bar with some friends this weekend and we were talking about the Tesla I ordered, and the bartender started going on about the a-hole NYT reporter and what a ***** he was. Pretty funny, and a huge percent of people were definitely on Tesla's side and didn't believe a word about the NYT article. So I'm sure a percentage of them look more into the company, realize earnings are tomorrow, and throw some money in the ring.

It will surely be an interesting week.

Market seems to really want the stock price up here when Tesla reports. Interesting.

 

[rolosrevenge]

Here's an interesting bit of why Toyota should buy Tesla. 3 Buyouts That Just Make Sense: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM) Buying Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) and More - Insider Monkey

 

[aznt1217]

Here's an interesting bit of why Toyota should buy Tesla. 3 Buyouts That Just Make Sense: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM) Buying Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) and More - Insider Monkey

It's not legally possible. Daimler has first rights.

Definitely an interesting day, scary day but definitely interesting. Place your bets people lol.

 

[carrerascott]

I'd be much more scared to be short -- not because I know what will happen, but because being short is scary on a stock that has this kind of potential. Yes we could have a poor report and be down to $30 tomorrow and it would suck, but if it's great and goes up $10, the train wouldn't stop for quite a while with all the shorts that would need to cover...

It's not legally possible. Daimler has first rights.

Definitely an interesting day, scary day but definitely interesting. Place your bets people lol.

 

[Zzzz...]

It's not legally possible. Daimler has first rights.

Musk and friends/family still have controlling interest in TM, and unless they are interested in selling Tesla Motors, no one have got a "rights" to buy company.

 

[kenliles]

jeez- really missed that 37 opportunity on friday to add some additional LEAPS I was interested in;
shoulda, woulda, coulda

 

[Enadler]

Agreed... so much for a buying opportunity at $36 prior to the earnings call!

 

[yngwie_2012]

just seen this article where it says the waiting time for new orders is down to just 30 days!!.
How should we interpret this? Is the ramp up skyrocketining to 1000 / week or did lots of people cancel their reservations??

Tesla Motors (TSLA +5.5%) moves higher as the... - Seeking Alpha

 

[Yuri_G]

just seen this article where it says the waiting time for new orders is down to just 30 days!!.
How should we interpret this? Is the ramp up skyrocketining to 1000 / week or did lots of people cancel their reservations??

Tesla Motors (TSLA +5.5%) moves higher as the... - Seeking Alpha

That information is from this article. Tesla Triumphs but Questions Remain - TheStreet

And from a store employee, so take with a grain of salt.

 

[K Hall]

just seen this article where it says the waiting time for new orders is down to just 30 days!!.
How should we interpret this? Is the ramp up skyrocketining to 1000 / week or did lots of people cancel their reservations??

Tesla Motors (TSLA +5.5%) moves higher as the... - Seeking Alpha

Cancellations might get an emotional reaction in the market but it will not be large enough to cause Tesla to miss its current 2013 sales target. I believe that we will hear that capacity is still sold out. They are increasing their sales centers and the Brand equity has jumped significantly this last week with Brodergate.

A 20,000 car sales target is not a big hurdle to make in 2013. Europe will pull as much demand as the US. Asia is next in line if demand slows domestically. Their powerful execution to date has built in counter measures to ensure they can max out their factory with a make to order system.

I think that they have been running 450 - 470 cars a week based on the data posted here. They are still capacity constrained and we have seen VIN #'s past 6,000. It is a state of the art facility that is just getting its running legs. The trajectory is up from here.

Tesla’s challenge is generating enough cash flow to feed growth. With new service centers, sales centers and superchargers in the capital budget.

Disclosure: Still buying TSLA and will be for the next two weeks.

 

[carrerascott]

Volume over 2mill today