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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nah, I don’t think the trolls have won—noisy and annoying yes—but they’re just working hard cause the shorts are in such a bad position.can we rename this the dark and stormy thread ? seems like many posters are just dropping out it was a good run here while it lasted
the trolls have won... shame
Further shorting seems not to be having a lot of effect. The dollars shorted is almost certainly over $20 billion and that’s at or near the highest of the usual high water marks.
The Cybertruck is phenomenal and is turning into a phenom. Autonomy is nigh.
I’ve learned to smirk and scroll on by.
Not surprising as I've stated before in past comments. The lure/draw for a lot of top/smart people is the greater impact they can do at a smaller company, more focused on 1 thing (The Bot Company), more control (% of stock outstanding), FAR higher upside due to smaller valuation vs. Tesla, more possible leadership/exec growth, more financial rewards obviously. You can also make a name for yourself vs. being at Tesla and would always be overshadowed by Musk.
I'll say this happens at a lot of "old/mature" tech companies as well (Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc) so it's nothing new and not necessary a bad thing.
The question is whether the bench is deep enough to allow Tesla to compete almost directly with folks who left and whether folks seeing people leaving will want to stick it out for the longer term in Tesla's current mission phase and situation right now (which I feel, simply can't be as great as from 2018 when they went up 50x).
I think we'll see Renjie Zhu be some higher/more senior exec at some Chinese smaller company (my guess) in a bit.
Did a lot of around town driving today, and as per usual tried to use FSD supervised as much as possible. I can’t help but wonder if the flashing green advanced arrow
— is either a much bigger problem to solve than we think
— or because all the NN training is done in the US they are still not aware that this exists in Canada.
I would think there has been at least a dozen revisions of FSD in the last two years. Maybe two dozen. And yet every intersection where there is a flashing advanced arrow for turning left FSD fails and needs an intervention. I mean if this was a robotaxi the ride would be over at the first left turn. Passengers would get out, walk to the curb and order a new RT because the first one is done right there unless someone gives the go pedal a kick.
Maybe the answer will be in mapping. Just route so that there are no left turns…ever.
I’m obviously just funin with ya, I’m sure they’ll figure it out, but it is a persistent problem that they haven’t been able to solve in two years. Kind of interesting.
Cheers.
— is either a much bigger problem to solve than we think
— or because all the NN training is done in the US they are still not aware that this exists in Canada.
I would think there has been at least a dozen revisions of FSD in the last two years. Maybe two dozen. And yet every intersection where there is a flashing advanced arrow for turning left FSD fails and needs an intervention. I mean if this was a robotaxi the ride would be over at the first left turn. Passengers would get out, walk to the curb and order a new RT because the first one is done right there unless someone gives the go pedal a kick.
Maybe the answer will be in mapping. Just route so that there are no left turns…ever.
I’m obviously just funin with ya, I’m sure they’ll figure it out, but it is a persistent problem that they haven’t been able to solve in two years. Kind of interesting.
Cheers.
Like you mentioned, US centric.
Yah probably. I think it might be more of a Canadian eccentricity. Still kinda funny.
It’s all good. I’m sure they’ll figure it out.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I think we will see a lot of departures and rearrangements in the AI industry for the reasons you've listed.
For e.g. OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever has just announced he's moving on. It shouldn't be surprising, but I'm already seeing breathless articles from the same tech journalists that pile on Tesla claiming his departure is a bad omen for OpenAI.
Good point. I should have referred to his science books, several of which helped some young people to study the subject. Mine was this:
His fiction piqued curiosity and his science books helped foment serious interest to pursue science academically. That was 1966, so everything soon changed, as high energy became the prime tool of discovery…
Elon did last two days in his Physics PhD program at Stanford when entrepreneurial zeal won over academics.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Agree with all. Just want to clarify the highest short interest by $$amount was just over $40B in second half 2020. You are correct, we are almost at $20B now, which is not low by historical standards to be sure.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Those are contradictory things though. Piling on as it goes lower means total SI will be HIGHER when the price is LOWER. That's what piling on IS.
Again, the amount of shorting has been quite steady for a while now.... Below is a chart of short interest over the last 5 years.
It drops DRASTICALLY the first year or so shown, and steady down
By mid 2021 it's about where it is right now 3 years later
And largely stays there moving between roughly 2.9% and 3.7% up and down the whole 3 years (with a brief dip into the mid-2% late 2022).
And this isn't some pre-covid weird glitch... here's SI % since the IPO
It was insanely high (often over 50% of float) from 2012-2014... then settled down to roughly 25-30% late 2014 through late-2019
then just fell off a cliff relatively speaking to this 3-ish percent it's been at most of the last few years.
The idea it's "REALLY HIGH RIGHT NOW" just aint' so.
It's number-to-the-right-of-the-decimal higher than it was last year.
It's basically right where it was 3 years go (slightly lower today in fact)
It's 10-12 times lower as float % than it was in the early/bad days.
I did.
Short interest remains near historical lows as a % of floated shares. 1 year ago it was 3.45% of float, it's 3.87% at last report. That's a tiny difference. 3 years ago it was higher than today.
As shown in the charts.
Are you just going by raw # of shares without considering the splits or something?
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
0.99% loans cost about as much as the inventory discounts they previously offered. I don't see a meaningful impact on margins. Might help sales since many buyers respond more to a bargain rate. it's a turnoff for cash buyers or those with high trade-in equity, though. Legacy offers discounts in lieu of 0% financing, Tesla should as well at least behind the scenes.
I was simply answering the question:
"Does Tesla still meet the market cap, revenue, and income metrics?"
I wouldn’t worry unless it was one of the four Musketeers highlighted in Walter Isaacson’s book, Dhaval Shroff. Even then, I am guessing there’s not much that he can do with Operation vacation ongoing. Employee boredom is our worst enemy as investors. Optimus should keep the AI team occupied for a couple of more years.
Also, we should thank Shroff for convincing Musk TWICE to switch to a neural path planner instead of heuristics - once when Musk wanted to move him to Twitter and then again when Musk wondered aloud whether NPP was an overkill. Phew
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Waste of company resources. The board should be paying for this “bring out the vote effort” out of their own pockets
Musskiah
DisGruntled
@Knightshade You are getting lost in minutiae. Simply graph SP and short interest 2021-present. You'll see the inverse correlation that is quite suspect.
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Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Probably a good realistic analysis/summary of where we are with the 4680 cells. I can't find the original article that Jordon is referencing.
I don't think Sutskever leaving may be necessarily bad for OpenAI, but I do agree with changes due to the current rush/realignment of the whole industry. Note that Sutskever was one of the people who voted to oust Sam Altman which sorta blew up in their face so he probably had to go due to conflict of interests. I think all the employees were also going to leave so that's a pretty bad thing with what happened.
"Sutskever was one of the OpenAI board members who voted to remove co-founder Sam Altman as CEO in November. Altman was reinstated days later, and Sutskever and the other directors who voted against Altman resigned from the board."
OpenAI was also founded back in 2015. This founder has 9 years worth of stock/options assuming he hasn't sold a ton. He can do something else and still get pretty much the bulk of any upside of OpenAI in the future (and that attempted ouster blew up in their face). I wouldn't be surprised old time folks leaving any company.
The issue for Tesla and what I've been saying is for folks who were there since 2018, earlier or anytime recently, is the mission, work, satisfaction, upside from here (after again, 50x with a 560 billion valuation) still attractive to those folks and will want to stay for all those reasons and current environment/morale? (not to mention job loss risk even if hardcore/mission). I wouldn't be surprised if there is a continuous trickle of managers/execs who can go anywhere and downside is they will obviously get/take the best folks with them to their new place. You see it in tech all the time.
This whole short interest back and forth is a waste of time really. 3-4% of float is nothing. When Tesla hit ATH, short interest was still pretty low looking at your graphs. I don't think TSLA is really a big short play anymore from looking at those charts.
Look at DJT though which shows from https://fintel.io/ss/us/djt , 84% of float recently. LCID at 31%, RIVN at 20%.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
How is showing you none of the data, going back 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, or even almost 15 years to IPO, supports your claims "minutiae"?
I really won't since the SI line, as I just showed you with data back to 2010, is mostly flat since 2021 compared to historic rates.
But I've now provided lots of graphs and data.
If you have any to support your claims, feel free to post em.
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