Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Whoopie doo. Another way for me to ignore crappy social meeja.
What, and miss Gary Black taking a victory lap on selling TSLA?! (down 60%). The only problem is, he used the proceeds to buy RIVN (down 95%).
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Whoopie doo. Another way for me to ignore crappy social meeja.
THIS is what I’ve been waiting for! While $8k still seems a bit high for FSD (Supervised), $2k to upgrade from Enhanced Autopilot is definitely worth it.
I'm guessing you ordered Foundation AWD?Sold out for 2024 cannot be true. I sat on my invite since Jan 19th, configured on Mar 24th, and have an April-June delivery window. I don't believe Tesla sold out the last six months of 2024 production since Mar 24th
Given the crap margins on "Services and Other", I've always assumed that Tesla is shuffling some costs/revenues around to flatter auto gross margins. Note that I'm not accusing them of any wrongdoing! This is more like, "This could go here or here, it make more sense it for it go in the first here, but since it makes auto gross margins look better, let's put it in the second here."
Yes, extremely important that everyone who is able to vote takes the time to do so. Don't just take it for granted that this will automatically be a 'Yes' vote (there are many with a vested interest that would jump at the chance to thwart Elon and Tesla).IMO, Dillon from the Electrified youtube channel makes some convincing arguments as to why there is a possibility that the shareholder vote for Elon's previous comp package may not go the same as it did the first time.
Considering that there's even a slight possibility of that happening, I'd like to encourage everyone that owns shares to please make sure to vote this time around, regardless if you voted or not the first time!
I would if I could.
Unfortunately my shares is held trough a local bank.Which hold shares trough an US bank.
And somewhere along this route the link is broken and I cannot vote.
I fear this is true for many shareholders outside the US.
Same, I can't vote as shares are held with my UK broker H&L in a mix of ISA, Pension and trading account.
Similar situation in Switzerland with Swissquote. I was never able to vote and don't know how to achieve itI am in the same situation and it's extremely frustrating. Most of my shares are in a Hargreaves Lansdown SIPP (Self Invested Pension Plan) and it's not possible to vote my shares through them. I've looked into it and it seems the only broker that would allow me to vote from the UK is Interactive Brokers (U.K.). However, I cannot transfer my SIPP to them because they don't support them directly (only through a SIPP Administrator). I'm still trying to find a way to make this work and if anyone knows how this is possible I would really appreciate the heads up.
Yes. Service is a huge profit driver for legacy automotive given the tens or hundreds of millions of vehicles they have on the road. Tesla is just getting started with this, AND they have the ability to sell software upgrades, not just service.The bulk of Tesla's fleet has been young and in warranty until recently. With minimal maintenance requirements, how would service have made a profit?
FWIW you’ve seriously understated the costs for dealer distribution. We probably could discuss the details elsewhere, but for typical EU OEM this runs around 20% or so and US higher around 25%, due mostly to finance margin and dealer-added equipment.I don't see that in the numbers. Remember that Tesla gets the extra benefit of having no dealers. A dealer gets 10-15% margin on the retail price, margin that would be instead seen in Tesla's financials (minus the relatively small cost of operating a website and minimally staffed delivery centers in each country). In my country, Tesla operates the sales component with essentially 1% of the people of all the BMW dealers (excluding service components for both) while selling the same number of cars. That obviously shows conventional manufacturers where they could extract extra margin from, but also shows that Tesla's manufacturing is not such a marvel as some might think.
“Too lazy to double check” makes some gigantic errors. I won’t bother to give detail because you absolutely will not really learn without doing the work to understand yourself. As a hint: auto dealers in most countries, including the US, do not make the majority of their profits from the stated margin between ‘dealer cost’ and ‘MSRP’. In fact ‘dealer cost’ is seldom actual cost of a vehicle to a dealer.Hi, Alexss88 --
> A dealer gets 10-15% margin on the retail price,
Too lazy to double-check, but I believe dealer *gross* margins on new vehicle sales are in the 5%-6% range. You need to go the filings or earnings reports to see this, data service financial summaries don't provide enough detail. I suspect that the DTC model gives Tesla a small competitive advantage. Note that the dealership structure is used in tons of other industries, from boats to tractors to commercial laundry equipment, presumably there's some good reason for this.
Given the crap margins on "Services and Other", I've always assumed that Tesla is shuffling some costs/revenues around to flatter auto gross margins. Note that I'm not accusing them of any wrongdoing! This is more like, "This could go here or here, it make more sense it for it go in the first here, but since it makes auto gross margins look better, let's put it in the second here."
Yours,
RP
Re S & X Pricing. Drops of 30 % over last two years and still no RHD versions ?
Man, TSLA is beaten up royally - can't believe it's market cap is less than $500B on a $100B annualized revenue generating business.
Secondly, how are you so sure autonomy will be solved soon if nobody has done it yet? Arguably Waymo is the yardstick and their stack / car is 100k in cost, albeit has excellent miles/disengagement performance compared to similar competitors and about 70x Tesla's.
I forgot to add that I put my deposit down in 2019. Aren’t I ahead of non-Foundation orders in the queue?We heard recently that Tesla CT is sold out for the 2024 model year. That likely means that unless you're willing to pony up for the Foundation Edition AND qualify to 'cue-hop' as a long-term TSLA shareholder, your number in the line is going to come up no sooner than 2025. If you do decide to pony up the extra $20K for the Foundation Edition, rest easy knowing that you helped bring CT to positive gross margins months or even quarters sooner.
Confucius say: "Don't feed the trolls".
Cheers!
I guess because they offer a level 4 system? They can do things today that Tesla can't. They have jumped through the regulatory hops that Tesla has not. They will offer service in all the top Uber markets before Tesla. The top Uber markets are all the profit.How can you say Waymo is the yardstick for autonomy? Their geo-fenced approach is completely different than the generalized solution Tesla is going for with FSD.
A better analogy would be Waymo is building a calculator while Tesla is building the Apple IIe computer. Would you call a calculator a "yardstick" for a computer?
I forgot to add that I put my deposit down in 2019. Aren’t I ahead of non-Foundation orders in the queue?
The LT framework should be RoboTaxi business model rather than subscription revenue. Work out revenue and cost per mile and multiply by # miles driven.I think that FSD alone cannot be the savior of Tesla. It is a very simple napkin calculation:
$100 a month for 5 years is only $6000, and the FSD take rate may be not that high, let's say 30%. Of the 6M cars already sold, many of them (HW2 or earlier) are not capable of activating V12.x, or cannot fully exploit the capability of FSD V12.
In short, not helping the revenue very much. Maybe help gross margin, but probably 0.3x or less. Unless, in the future every car sold by any car company has to be autonomous capable and TELSA makes a big money on licensing FSD. I don't think that happens in 15 years or 20.
So, what I really want to say is that Optimus is more likely to be the killer application, and FSD MUST be a helper to the dawn of Optimus. Optimus has way more applications than FSD.
The problem is, FSD is improving so fast because TESLA has so much driving training data., but I don't see TESLA having more data on training robots to do human work than other companies (most likely, industrial/factory works). Maybe it does, but I don't see an illustration.
If we cannot find the connection between "FSD success" to "Optimus training/development", as investors, we cannot bet on that Tesla will do better than other Robot projects of other companies. In that case, put the majority of your money on TSLA at current price is very risky.
Or maybe his math is much more conservative. WS has done the math and it's priced in I think.Uh, you haven't done the math on Robotaxi's once FSD reaches Level 5, have you?
Hint: FSD can very much truly massively be the savior of Tesla, if FSD can get to L5.