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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I periodically check this. They were quoting me $100,000 for solar roof and forcing 3 powerwalls. They are now quoting $80,000 and you can delete the powerwalls payback would be improved to about 30 years. Since I buy solar energy from FPL, this is hopeless. You might see if FPL sells solar in your area. Down in Curt Rentz’s area the whole town is 100% solar, I think from FPL. Never lost power when Ian went directly over them.
Its pretty easy to track quotes for Powerwalls, in the two and a half years since I ordered my system Powerwall prices have gone up from about $7K per to about $9k per.

All Tesla prices are installed. Third parties are generally alot higher.

And technically it can be something like "$7k for one powerwall, plus $3k to install it" so $10K for one, but two is $17k, since they installation is the same no matter how many you get. You see this when you get far enough into it to actually get the breakdown on the bill.
 
Hm... I think that many cities in Europe went toward cities without cars. In such cities public transport and bikes are the preferred and optimal way to commute. As it should be in all cities around the globe. Train + subway + bikes ftw.

I recommend series about strong towns from YouTube channel "Not just bikes".


That is why I don't think that FSD will solve traffic problems.
FSD solves accidents. Boring Company solves traffic.
 
<pedant reply mode>

There should be an acronym for "Teach your mother to suck eggs" . . . . I was iterating on CFD models of World Superbike motorcycles and testing vehicles in a wind tunnel when the Tesla Model S was still a gleam in Van Holthousen's eye. Yes, Cd, is a dimensionless number. So is the fineness ratio, which is worse for smaller cars. Also, the passenger space doesn't change all that much from smaller to bigger sedans, only increasing in length and perhaps height and width slightly. So a tiny car tends to be a block defined by the passenger space, without much room to streamline the nose and tail. Look at the very aerodynamic Mercedes EQXX, and notice how much the tail extends beyond the rear seating area. You can't do that on a 4-seat 4.2m car.

But as a practical aerodynamicist, I actually dislike talking about Cd's as they're often used to mislead. A good Cd on a Hummer stills means very large drag. The important number is the effective front area, CdA, which is what needs to be minimized. On a car that has a lot of length, you can do that with a carefully curvaceous nose that doesn't push the air much outward of the vehicle's maximum frontal area, and by converging the tail surfaces gently over a long distance, and thus achieve a low CdA by lowering Cd while A may remain large. On a small car, it's much more of a balancing act, requiring a decent Cd and a smaller A to get a similar or slightly better CdA result.
When were you working on WSB? I was well into that back in the 90s when Carl Fogarty and Pierfrancesco Chili were fighting it out, magnificent racing that was...
 
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Bear in mind that wind-resistance squares with speed, and these "city cars" will be used more for, erm, cities where average speeds are way less

And regardless of the M3 efficiency, it's just too big for many folks - we just traded my wife's M3P to Tesla, we offered it to a friend for the same price - which was an absolute bargain as the Tesla offer was very, very low, but she decided against it because she thinks it's "too big". This is the reality in Europe, Teslas are just too big

I guess that explains why the Model 3 is selling so poorly in Europe compared to much smaller EV's:

Europe-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-January-December-2021-CleanTechnica.png


The point so many are missing is that Tesla chooses the appropriate time to enter new market segments and the "hot hatch" is not a mainstream segment in Europe, even if it is much more popular in Europe than the US. Most people just want a good economical and comfortable car that doesn't cost too much to buy. Tesla will enter the "hot hatch" market segment when it's time.

Those who judge the value of a company by how many different models they offer might want to check out GM, I heard in just a couple of years they will have 69 different EV models which probably means hot hatches will come in small, medium and large sizes, just like underwear, and even the large will be smaller than a Tesla Model 3. GM can't lose because they will have every market segment so well-covered, and Tesla will probably only have 6 or7 models by then. /s
 
The point so many are missing is that Tesla chooses the appropriate time to enter new market segments and the "hot hatch" is not a mainstream segment in Europe, even if it is much more popular in Europe than the US. Most people just want a good economical and comfortable car that doesn't cost too much to buy. Tesla will enter the "hot hatch" market segment when it's time.
Exactly like Elon keeps saying: There is no point in introducing a small vehicle now, because that would mean that we have to redirect the limited parts, mainly batteries, from existing products. So, you don't actually sell many more, if any more, vehicles, but you have introduced the complexity of additional models.

Once they know they will have more battery cells, and other parts, than they need to support production of models currently being sold, is when they will add additional modules to production. The next model being added to production is the Cybertruck. (And technically the Semi is still in the process of being added to volume production.)

If they are going to start making a smaller, less expensive, vehicle they need to have enough batteries to make a lot of them. That supply doesn't currently exist.
 
Exactly like Elon keeps saying: There is no point in introducing a small vehicle now, because that would mean that we have to redirect the limited parts, mainly batteries, from existing products. So, you don't actually sell many more, if any more, vehicles, but you have introduced the complexity of additional models.

Once they know they will have more battery cells, and other parts, than they need to support production of models currently being sold, is when they will add additional modules to production. The next model being added to production is the Cybertruck. (And technically the Semi is still in the process of being added to volume production.)

If they are going to start making a smaller, less expensive, vehicle they need to have enough batteries to make a lot of them. That supply doesn't currently exist.
This is just potentially problematic given the sheer volume that needs to be moved, there are limited layers of demand at certain price points and interest rates.

I have no doubt they will move, I question what will be required to move them and the implications for recent buyers, the used market, existing financing, etc. Hopefully the MSRP changes are done and anything further comes in the form of temporary discounts/incentives that have fewer and less serious implications than cuts to the manufacturer's suggested retail price.
 
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First month of the season is in the books and Team Tesla looking good so far. After a 6 game winning streak was broken yesterday, they have started a new streak. Volume has been higher than average in the last 10, and slightly more volatile. Let's hope 2023 is a much better season than 2022. So far, so good.

Today
Close:173.22
Margin of W/L:6.56
Volume:196,394,542
High - Low:11.52
Close/52 week high:45.1%
Season
Record:13-70.650
Total margin of wins:86.06
Total margin of losses:-36.02
YTD gain/loss:50.0440.6%
Best Win:17.63Jan 27
Worst Loss:-15.08Jan 3
Last 10:7-3
Streak:W1
Avg margin of victory:6.62
Avg margin of defeat:-5.15
Avg Volume:186,430,612
Avg Volume of Last 10:201,809,807
Avg High - Low:8.67
Avg H - L of Last 10:9.73
 
In case you missed it, he means it this time!!

View attachment 901895
He isn't a stupid guy and has access to all sorts of advice. I just can't believe that his thesis really comes down to "it's valuation is high compared to other car companies". Do those guys sit around and wonder why Ferrari is worth far more per car than VW?

Edit,

Well maybe @Thekiwi is right and Chenos is stupid.
 
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In case you missed it, he means it this time!!

View attachment 901895
The history books have already cast the obituary for this doofus - his fund value absolutely imploded as he relentlessly failed at everything post his lucky Enron call. HIs fund value was over $7 Billion at its height vs ~$400 million at the end of 2020. It takes a rare amount of anti-talent to lose that much money.
 
The non-car solution sounds wonderful until heat waves hit the cities and everyone tries to bike and walk in 90-100 degree sunny weather.
Hey, that's normal daily summer temperature here in the southeast USA. Biking in my hilly town does tend to be a sweat-inducing proposition, which is why I use an ebike to get around town in the summer 🙂. 50 miles/kWh beats even our Tesla handily for efficiency.
 
But as a practical aerodynamicist, I actually dislike talking about Cd's as they're often used to mislead. A good Cd on a Hummer stills means very large drag. The important number is the effective front area, CdA, which is what needs to be minimized.
Precisely my point. Which is why I posted what I did when you started off with, "It's not impossible to get a decent Cd from a 4.2 meter car..."
 
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Exactly like Elon keeps saying: There is no point in introducing a small vehicle now, because that would mean that we have to redirect the limited parts, mainly batteries, from existing products. So, you don't actually sell many more, if any more, vehicles, but you have introduced the complexity of additional models.

Once they know they will have more battery cells, and other parts, than they need to support production of models currently being sold, is when they will add additional modules to production. The next model being added to production is the Cybertruck. (And technically the Semi is still in the process of being added to volume production.)

If they are going to start making a smaller, less expensive, vehicle they need to have enough batteries to make a lot of them. That supply doesn't currently exist.
Drew said 2024 will be a good year for 4680 production, the earliest I expect compact models is 2024.
 
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In case you missed it, he means it this time!!

View attachment 901895
The recent coordinated (i.e, collusive) effort to plunge the SP has given Jim Chanos renewed confidence in being on the short side. Worry not, he is incapable of assessing the value of TSLA. He is merely aware of the ability of short sellers, armed with the ability to short shares that don't exist, even on downticks, to manipulate the SP. Be careful all, we may all be right in the end but, where is the end. It is not safe to sell puts or load up on calls (ever). This is advice.