Well, I hope this is relevant to the stock - it has bearing on how the incentives are moving inventory.
I had an order for a Model Y in since July 28th this year. It got put on hold until Jan 1 by Tesla when I failed to proceed to arrange for delivery when notified of it's availability this year (a few months earlier than planned)
Due to the incentives I decided to try to get my car, any car, this year. I was advised to just order a car that was listed in inventory as the likelihood of getting my order in queue and delivered in time was slim to nil. I planned to cancel my original order once another car was secured.
It is frustrating dealing with text messages as the sole way to communicate with sales staff, primarily because I was communicating with 3 or 4 people, none of whom identified themselves when posting a question to me. My situation was unique, I had an original order now on hold but not closed out, and cars in 2 locations in the Bay Area that I was willing/attempting to take but it was unclear if I had captured either one going by the website and low level sales people who were frankly confused and confusing the situation.
I got a call today from an obviously elevated position Rep who could both access the data and knew the correct answers. I had been stuck with completing the required documents in the App/Website for either car, as I was taking delivery in CA but residence, insurance and registration will be in WA. The system couldn't handle any of that and it was getting very Medieval gymkhana of an effort to get home with a car. But there is competency at higher levels in Tesla, and all is smooth going at this point.
To sum up; If you weren't aware, the incentives sparked a bonfire of buying, there are NO Teslas available in the US at this point.
Except for one Model Y at Sunnyvale if you move very quickly tomorrow morning ;-).
Counterpoint anecdote.
I had a May 2023 estimated Model X delivery (and don't need a car any earlier).
2 weeks ago, Tesla reached out to see if I wanted to take a non-matching car for early delivery. I declined.
5 days later, Tesla upped the offer to include the 10k miles. I declined.
7 days later (on Christmas Eve), Tesla assigned me a VIN.
Yesterday morning, Tesla told me I had to schedule delivery this week. After some back and forth, they offered to release the car and extend my hold to March 1.
Last night, they rescinded and would only extend the hold until January 1 (i.e., 7 days from VIN assignment). I've gotten 3 "schedule a delivery now" texts since.
They now have 13 inventory non-performance Model X's (not counting my assigned VIN, which should appear soon), within 50 miles of me in Southern California. None of them have FSD (as used to be the norm at quarter end) or even enhanced auto-pilot. (btw, they have 18 Xs within 50 miles of Sunnyvale!).
I've been watching this for a very long time (and have personally purchased 5 Teslas at quarter-end over the past 10 years). I have no other conclusion than that late December demand has collapsed (at least in California). (Model X supply doesn't magically increase).
I'm not going to extrapolate for January and beyond (the confusion around the IRA is rampant), but I'm wary...
Update on wttlloyd's note on Y availability in the Bay Area: As of this morning, I count 32 Model Y's available for December delivery within 50 miles of Sunnyvale....