Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Speedr117]

I am not a WTO expert, I am a registered investment advisor, so I don't know anything about those rules and regulations.
However, don't our elected officials and their thousands of aides and experts and lawyers know a thing or 2 about the WTO? Why wasn't this addressed or considered or researched before it ever came to a vote?

WTO takes FOREVER to decide issues. The Boeing/Airbus dispute took over 10 years to resolve, if I remember correctly.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

If you're worried about earthquakes, you buy earthquake insurance. You don't keep 10B sitting around waiting for things to start shaking.

it seems like earthquake insurance premium is half the value of what you're insuring, and the deductible is twice that amount

 

[Rarity]

Pretty sure we want a level playing field, that's where we would shine competitively.

EU drops their US auto tariffs, we'll drop the truck tariff and let them in on the IRA.

Everyone wins, right?

That would appear to mean that IRA was a gross bait-and-switch.

 

[wipster]

Pretty sure we want a level playing field, that's where we would shine competitively.

EU drops their US auto tariffs, we'll drop the truck tariff and let them in on the IRA.

Everyone wins, right?

And you know they're gonna be wanting the CyberTruck... heck I'd like to donate some battle hardened ones to Ukraine right now!

 

[Usain]

Might sound like a buyback "noted" but could also be a "oh, we need 2x earnings? I got you." type of noted.

That's my take on it. And Q3 2022 earnings should be 2x year over year.

 

[mongo]

Are you aware of any large cap company ever doing one without announcing it first?

As your doc mentions-

"Because, similar to
information on individual insider trades, such information is likely to have a short-term
component, its timely disclosure is expected to be relevant for investors"

Generally major companies announce to avoid any potential appearance of acting on insider info as a corporation.... (the fact a rebuy is happening could itself be considered material NPI if unannounced)-- and in fact that's why the proposed rules you cite to are proposing to increase reporting requirements on rebuys even WITH an announced plan.

So we agree that, while it is common and potentially helpful, it is not required, and there is no "need" (meaning requirement) to announce it in advance?

10b-5 plan is handy but not required (nor is it ever). However, given earnings are in less than 7 days, it would be questionable to start buying back now.
https://www.skadden.com/-/media/Fil...rket-Disruptions/Rule_10b_18_Safe_Harbors.pdf

 

[FSDtester#1]

WTO takes FOREVER to decide issues. The Boeing/Airbus dispute took over 10 years to resolve, if I remember correctly.

Let's hope that continues!! Should be 10 to 15 years until I sell a single share of TSLA.
100% of my IRA has been in Tesla within 1 week of me owning my S Plaid.
It took driving that car for the light bulb to go off and I said "Sh*t, whoever can build this is going to the moon "
This is my first Tesla, so cut me some slack for being stupid before owning one.

Edit: I also got the beta invitation 3 days after delivery. So I accepted and drove like grandma for a week and got in at 100% with version 10.3.1. (That was painful with a new Plaid)
Have been using Fsd beta for over a year and with all the improvements I get more bullish with every OTA release. Averaging 1 intervention or takeover per 20 miles driven. Getting close AI team!

 

[Cobbler]

Damn, I posted here that I bought some shares when market opened, now it's gone. Did I catch the bottom on $TSLA?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ah, well, we are not privy to his personal financials on that level. But those would have been OLD OLD loans. I would suspect TSLA would have to crash to something like $30/share for him to get a margin call on those.

This was a popular TSLAQ talking point back in May 2020 during the 2nd SCE cuort csae. Elon likely had ~$500M in margin loans at the time. Since he has excercised options and has over $7B in hand ATM (likely much more), its not surprizing to hear those lusers try to revive that dead horse. Elon paid off ALL his margin loans long ago.

 

[Skryll]

Let's hope that continues!! Should be 10 to 15 years until I sell a single share of TSLA.
100% of my IRA has been in Tesla within 1 week of me owning my S Plaid.
It took driving that car for the light bulb to go off and I said "Sh*t, whoever can build this is going to the moon "
This is my first Tesla, so cut me some slack for being stupid before owning one.

Thats what I did in 2016, Model X convinced me, and 2017 test driving somebodies model 3 again convinced me that they can do this for half the cost of a model s, took delivery of my model 3 RWD LR with FSD 2018 . All in since then, amazing journey

 

[bkp_duke]

This was a popular TSLAQ talking point back in May 2020 during the 2nd SCE cuort csae. Elon likely had ~$500M in margin loans at the time. Since he has excercised options and has over $7B in hand ATM (likely much more), its not surprizing to hear those lusers try to revive that dead horse. Elon paid off ALL his margin loans long ago.

Do we have confirmation of a pay off on those loans? I'm asking because if I were in his position, I probably would only pay the minimum payment on loans at ~1% (which would be what those probably were, given the timeframe they were issued).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon just tweeted this out:
https://www.usdebtclock.org

So... massive share buybacks with borrowed $$$ spare FCF confirmed? /s

 

[Runarbt]

They are talking about previous loans, not Twitter specific.
After his 2021 sales, those may be reduced.

My understanding was Elon closed all margin when he sold to cover options that got exercised?

 

[2daMoon]

So... massive share buybacks with borrowed $$$ confirmed? /s

You seem to have misunderstood.

Elon is going to buy the US National Debt,... once the Twitter deal is done.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Oil recovering today, on "tight supplies". Nevermind the weekly US report indicated the exact opposite. I think this was a big part of the post-cpi hedge funder's plan. Once again they're executing a planned rally even tho the trigger event(a lower CPI) never happened.

We're in a pattern of pure manipulation in most corners of our markets. Looks to me like everyone will be getting away with this nonsense until Putin is neutralized and we see a clear and full end to covid disruptions. Maybe by the new year?

I'm starting to think Elon's prediction of moderate recession and massive deflation is gonna come true. We'll see how the global economy reacts over the next few years. I don't think it'll be that big of a deal. Nothing wrong with zero cost oil to fuel the transition.

 

[petit_bateau]

I am not a WTO expert, I am a registered investment advisor, so I don't know anything about those rules and regulations.
However, don't our elected officials and their thousands of aides and experts and lawyers know a thing or 2 about the WTO? Why wasn't this addressed or considered or researched before it ever came to a vote?

My guess is that it was.

Perhaps it was. Maybe it will come to light in the US response to the EU's proposal/demand...

My guess is that it was always intended to be conceded in a deal with EU. But that bit was not said very loudly when preparing briefing packs for Congress etc.

Saying it is not doing it. Those stipulations were put in the law! You'd need to pass another law to fix it. Good luck with that! I think this is just saying nice things to smooth this over...

Er, you do realise this is not just a website for USA exceptionalism don't you. Writing dumbass stuff into law doesn't make it any smarter, it simply gets the evidence to the courtroom faster and with your signature on it.

Let's be honest. This anti-competitive law is intended to keep legacy Ford/GM/Chrysler alive a little longer and to penalise China products whilst promoting onshoring, nearshoring, and reshoring. To the extent that it is legal under WTO rules that will only be because the USA has (or not) the ammunition to show that China is indulging in equally (or worse) anti-competitive behaviour. In the case of China that I can believe. But in the case of the EU when you look at the legal hoops all EU funding (and all EU member states) funding has to jump through so as to be signed off in advance as not being anticompetitive under WTO, then not much chance of US winning a case.

The more interesting case will be if Mexico and/or Canada take US to WTO. Normally they just suck it up, living next door to the local bully gets kind of tiring. But occasionally they hold their ground. We'll see.

Don't kid yourselves that just because WTO legal cases can drag on for 10+ years that action doesn't happen much faster. Countervailing tariffs can get slapped on almost immediately by the aggrieved party - so for example EU could slap 100% tariff on all luxury/prestige BEV which would of course directly hit Tesla S/X. But countervailing tariffs don't have to be in the same area - they could be for example on all large battery systems, or on whisky, or on beef.

The right thing for the USA to do is to make nice with the EU.

 

[mongo]

Do we have confirmation of a pay off on those loans? I'm asking because if I were in his position, I probably would only pay the minimum payment on loans at ~1% (which would be what those probably were, given the timeframe they were issued).

My understanding was Elon closed all margin when he sold to cover options that got exercised?

Did he?

I'm doubtful on visibility since he's a private individual. He did sell all his CA houses and a bunch of stock so he theoretically could pay down a loan to reduce interest payments, especially if he can leave the credit line open.
However, there may be larger balance margin debt tied up from funding his other business endeavors (OpenAI (former), Neuralink, SpaceX, Boring) .

 

[thesmokingman]

Markets are fed up with being down...

 

[Runarbt]

With what money? He still has to buy Twitter.

You sure about that?

 

[Runarbt]

Did he?

I'm doubtful on visibility since he's a private individual. He did sell all his CA houses and a bunch of stock so he theoretically could pay down a loan to reduce interest payments, especially if he can leave the credit line open.
However, there may be larger balance margin debt tied up from funding his other business endeavors (OpenAI (former), Neuralink, SpaceX, Boring) .

Elon has no love for shorts. As long as he use margin, his shares are available to shorts. I’d bet good money Elon closed all margin.