StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Anyone else feels the rally forward may be a bit muted given the ten year at 1.6 and climbing? At least until earnings …
Of course TSLA does what it wants. Just pointing out those pesky macros…
The world in general and the markets are feeling a lot of uncertainty. Tesla is in transition also, with two new factories to bring online, new technologies ramping (4680 cells, structural packs, Cybertruck and Semi, etc.) so expect all this uncertainty to translate into above average volatility with the market acting kind of manic-depressive on a day-to-day basis, often for no apparent reason (or with outsized reactions to minor developments or completely ignoring significant developments). Decent sized-moves that change direction suddenly and unpredictably but with an upward bias overall into and after earnings.
It's just noise, even if that noise probably takes us, on average, higher. Macro markets could rally strongly (in which case TSLA could go crazy) but, even if market sentiment turns sour, I think TSLA will remain relatively strong, a flight to the safety of growth. TSLA is an incredibly strong company now and it's in a particularly strong position. Autos, both new and used, are in very high demand, and it's not so much driven by crazy demand as it is by a lack of supply. This is a very strong tailwind in the event of economic weakness. I think TSLA has a high probability of trading between $1000 and $1700 (or even higher in a more bullish macro environment) over the next 8 months. Predicting individual moves within this range will be nearly impossible most of the time.