Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

Do any of our European members see any difficulties arising at the German GF construction from the new lock down measures announced there today? Wouldn't affect production of course, but it might slow the completion date.

Inquiring minds need to know!

Thanks!

German here...it's almost impossible to ascertain right now how this will impact completion of GigaBerlin. I expect there at most to be a slow-down due to supply-chain issues and mobility of workforce.

Issues that may impact:

- travel ban for non-critical / non-essential travel (many workers in construction come from Poland and other neighbouring countries. It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to travel / cross the border, with mandatory quarantine.)
- shutdown of hotels and gastronomy
- contact limitations - while aimed at private situations, in a business setting (and thus construction sites) the companies have to develop and enforce very strict hygiene plans. I believe policing these will continue to be difficult, but a high-vis site such as GigaBerlin will be a high-impact media disaster if someone sees transgressions there...
- contact ban: private persons are only allowed to meet in groups of <10 people from max. 2 households. This impacts workers during their off-time, so might well impact productivity.
- remember that supply-chain is pan-european, so France shut down as well, Poland is quite shutdown, other countries that might be suppliers to GigaBerlin construction will be doing the same. This will have an impact.

 

[aubreymcfato]

When it all blows over, you will want to be invested in Tesla.

I'm not into "time the market" or options trading... people that are, need to work out a likely duration....

When I worked in IT at a stock exchange, we put in a lot of code relating to the likely death of the Japanese Emperor, then he died and literally nothing happened...

So you never know when people will panic.

BTW Our share trading software was modelled on design principles from TAB horse racing software, Horse racing is harder. When I say share trading, we were one of the first automated share trading systems.

Last time, being in Italy, I knew that Covid was going to hit markets later in US. I sold an handful of shares, and then SP plummeted. But I didn't really rebuy at the bottom, so only half of the play was right. I now have a couple shares less than before.
This time I'll be smarter and won't sell, even if I'm quite sure SP will go down, and there will be lockdowns: in Europe they already started.

Tesla is the safest and the quietest of my thoughts, it's basically my happy place.
If they don't succeed in the electric transition we are screwed, sooner or later.
I'll keep my money there: in the meantime I'll try to survive this pandemic.
There are more important things than a SP.

 

[Mike Smith]

Panasonic is going to make 4680 cells for Tesla.

Panasonic beats forecasts, developing new battery cell for Tesla

'We started working on it immediately after Tesla's Battery Day (in September) and are also preparing to set up a prototype production line in parallel.'

 

[traxila]

Panasonic is going to make 4680 cells for Tesla.

Panasonic beats forecasts, developing new battery cell for Tesla

'We started working on it immediately after Tesla's Battery Day (in September) and are also preparing to set up a prototype production line in parallel.'

This is a brilliant sign. Total validation.

The next ten years will be amazing.

Hope we are all here to witness.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Panasonic is going to make 4680 cells for Tesla.

Panasonic beats forecasts, developing new battery cell for Tesla

'We started working on it immediately after Tesla's Battery Day (in September) and are also preparing to set up a prototype production line in parallel.'

As expected but nice to see the confirmation. The Master Plan moves forward.

 

[Yuha]

Panasonic is going to make 4680 cells for Tesla.

Panasonic beats forecasts, developing new battery cell for Tesla

'We started working on it immediately after Tesla's Battery Day (in September) and are also preparing to set up a prototype production line in parallel.'

But 2170 cells are not going away soon:

'Umeda also said the company has decided to launch an additional production line at the Nevada factory next year, increasing the plant's total capacity by some 10% to 38-39 gigawatt hours (GWh) a year by around 2022.

"We are targeting a profit margin of around 5% at our Tesla battery business within two to three years," he added.'

 

[Rotte]

German here...it's almost impossible to ascertain right now how this will impact completion of GigaBerlin. I expect there at most to be a slow-down due to supply-chain issues and mobility of workforce.

Issues that may impact:

- travel ban for non-critical / non-essential travel (many workers in construction come from Poland and other neighbouring countries. It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to travel / cross the border, with mandatory quarantine.)
- shutdown of hotels and gastronomy
- contact limitations - while aimed at private situations, in a business setting (and thus construction sites) the companies have to develop and enforce very strict hygiene plans. I believe policing these will continue to be difficult, but a high-vis site such as GigaBerlin will be a high-impact media disaster if someone sees transgressions there...
- contact ban: private persons are only allowed to meet in groups of <10 people from max. 2 households. This impacts workers during their off-time, so might well impact productivity.
- remember that supply-chain is pan-european, so France shut down as well, Poland is quite shutdown, other countries that might be suppliers to GigaBerlin construction will be doing the same. This will have an impact.

The pandemic may affect construction of the Berlin Gigafactory but we should have a working vaccine available to most the world by the time it opens for production.

 

[Tslynk67]

The pandemic may affect construction of the Berlin Gigafactory but we should have a working vaccine available to most the world by the time it opens for production.

The day a vaccine is approved by FDA (or appropriate authorities), and moves to mass production, it's going to be great for those that had the sense to hold.

And assuming this will be sometime between now and Q1/Q2 next year, those 2022/3 LEAPS are going to do just fine.

My personal problem is the need to fund this house for my wife, IV being so low can't even sell calls to generate cash right now. Crapola

 

[Nocturnal]

Whatever crash happens this time around due to Covid won't be the same as last time. The market knows which companies can weather the storm or even thrive during lockdowns etc. Tesla, and auto in general are in the latter categories it seems.

Probably because he has far more robotics experts at Tesla than any of his other companies.

That and "The Catgirl Robot Company" just doesn't sound as good as "Tesla Catgirls".

The TAM for robotic uhhh "companions" would certainly get Tesla to 40trillion.

 

[AlMc]

The day a vaccine is approved by FDA (or appropriate authorities), and moves to mass production, it's going to be great for those that had the sense to hold.

And assuming this will be sometime between now and Q1/Q2 next year, those 2022/3 LEAPS are going to do just fine.

My personal problem is the need to fund this house for my wife, IV being so low can't even sell calls to generate cash right now. Crapola

. I have not only been selling TSLA puts and CCs but also AMZN.....you need only sell one put or call to generate the type of $ that TSLA theta decay use to give.

EDIT: I will be getting out of those today (AMZN) with ER today.......I expect it will drag market up but up is down and vice versa these days.

 

[corduroy]

Sorry in advance if this is "disagreeable"...

• Covid is getting worse in many locations across the globe
• US election seems likely to me to end in the losing party contesting the results. Seems not unlikely to not have results for days to weeks
• Stock market hates uncertainty

Doesn't this indicate that we are headed into a serious head wind? Someone wanna talk me off the ledge?

There are a lot of uncertainties. If you buy in now, you may be buying on the way down. Then again you might not be. Either way I like to think of it this way: would your future self in 2025 or 2030 think that being able to go back and buy TSLA stock in the low 400's be a good deal? I am certain that the answer would be yes.

 

[FS_FRA]

The pandemic may affect construction of the Berlin Gigafactory but we should have a working vaccine available to most the world by the time it opens for production.

Agree. I was only referring to construction phase. The lockdown is 1 month. I expect it to be extended through December though....

 

[FS_FRA]

The day a vaccine is approved by FDA (or appropriate authorities), and moves to mass production, it's going to be great for those that had the sense to hold.

And assuming this will be sometime between now and Q1/Q2 next year, those 2022/3 LEAPS are going to do just fine.

My personal problem is the need to fund this house for my wife, IV being so low can't even sell calls to generate cash right now. Crapola

I don't expect a vaccine to be generally available to the general public in Q1/2 2021 (speaking for Germany). Reading between the lines of most reporting on this, while a vaccine might be available that early, it will be targeted entirely at high-risk population. Construction workers or plant workers do not qualify as high-risk IMHO.

I think we need to accept that a general public vaccine is a Q3 and later event.


Regarding your house: good luck with keeping the wifey happy with the new house! I hear you on the low-IV quandary, my issue too.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Ford has pooled with someone.


Q:
That's very helpful. Thanks. And I think you commented that because of the cruiser recall company, definitely you're going to have a CO2 compliance cost this year. Are you anticipating a similar level of cost in the fourth quarter as was realized in 3Q, and then perhaps more importantly, can you discuss if you think this issue will be resolved, and if there is risk to any of your other hybrid or BEV products?

A:
So, from a cost standpoint, I'll start with that. As I said earlier, it's about $400 million for the quarter. We do expect some costs in the fourth quarter, somewhere between $100 million to $200 million. So that's the impact we see as it is today. And that does also -- that includes the impact of the pooling effort that we're going to have to undertake for our passenger vehicles in Europe.

Q:
Okay. And finally, have you disclosed or can you disclose who the pooling agreement is with? I think it will become a public record at some point in the year?

A:
We're not going to do that today. Thanks.

Who could it be...

But, but... Mach-E!

 

[ZsoZso]

But, but... Mach-E!

It is an admission, that the sale volume of Mach-E will not even meet compliance numbers !

 

[Hock1]

If large powerful group are suppressing sp trying to accumulate lower, shouldn't they increase selling volume triggering stop loses? Tsla haven't had any significant dip like what we saw a few months ago. Almost just seems like no one is interested in buying or selling lately. Perhaps there are too many macro related risks so close to the election. Battery day and Tesla's guide has eased people to Hodl, while macro is scaring new buyers from coming in. I suspect volume will be back once the election is over.

Could be because the "powerful group" is low on long shares to sell and would have to sell fake shares to move the stock down materially. There is a limit to which they will go. They learned a very expensive lesson when Tesla distributed 4 new shares to the holders of every legitimate owner of a share of TSLA.

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/KelvinYang7/status/1321799576630616064?s=20

 

[Knightshade]

Came across on twitter, presented without comment (of which there was some in both directions)

 

[MP3Mike]

Q:
Okay. And finally, have you disclosed or can you disclose who the pooling agreement is with? I think it will become a public record at some point in the year?

A:
We're not going to do that today. Thanks.

Who could it be...

I thought the partnering couldn't be changed mid-year Europe...

 

[Knightshade]

Hey remember a while back when I mentioned Tesla would need to invest some $ into large expansion of the service center network because it hasn't remotely kept up with fleet growth and I got a bunch of disagrees?


Tesla (TSLA) makes massive push for service to catch up with sales - Electrek