Search results

I find this post extremely distasteful. It is clear that the dreadful atrocities committed 80 years ago have been widely trivialised in modern parlance but for many of us in Europe the generational scars from that time are still livid. Please find a more appropriate way to express yourself.

Can't be 100% sure but isn't the ship skin made of 3mm SS? SS is a reasonable conductor so we can assume that if the outside skin temperature is 1300K then the inside skin temperature will also be 1300K. As far as I am aware the LOX and CH4 tanks are single skin so both of these liquids will be...

I am hoping that SpaceX had a camera in the starboard flap too as that side seems to have been more exposed to unexpected aerodynamic and heating loads. Would love to see that footage. Last century I was peripherally involved in the analysis work on the Giotto spacecraft following its flypast...

I have to agree with @JB47394 on both points: At the start of the coast phase the ship was in a constant orientation but with one fin pointing towards earth. I was surprised by this until I noticed the shadows and realised that they had oriented so the tiles were facing the sun. This is more...

I wonder how this will play out relative to international roaming.

Unfortunately I did not keep the reference to the source so cannot go back and check but I believe the two are distinct as I remember wondering why they were not using the new year holiday for the updates. Sorry I can't provide a more definitive response :( If there was no stoppage in January...

Roland Pircher and TSLA Chan posted the following MIC production figures for January on X: Model Y: 50,554 Model 3: 32,010 Total: 82,564 Given that Tesla announced there would be a 1 week stoppage on the Model Y lines for production line updates these appear to be pretty good figures.

My reading of the info from SpaceX is that the leaks they refer to are methane leaks which then combusted with the LOX being vented.

Has he given the MIC January production figures? Haven't seen this on either TSLA CHAN or Daas Auto yet.

Sorry guys but this is not a practical solution. The main problem with the training phase is not performing the calculation, it is moving the right data into the pipeline for each of the processors so that many operations can be executed in parallel. This is discussed in the Dojo presentations...

Not all of us! Two launches well after midnight for me :)

Wishing Rob Maurer all the best in his new venture but very sad that Tesla Daily has come to an end. I will miss his well researched and balanced reporting.

You do a great job - it is much appreciated.

Not sure if this has been discussed on another thread but the UK introduced ZEV credits on 1 January this year. From what I have read it is a fairly straightforward scheme which starts with an annual threshold target that 22% of the vehicles sold by a company must be ZEV. For every vehicle below...

It seems that the current Y line at Berlin is running reasonably close to capacity with the current shift pattern. Tesla posted about reaching 5k/week but I have not seen a 6k/week post. What they also stated was that they were aiming for cost efficiency and reducing some contract staff they had...

The podcast with the November figures is titled 'Tesla Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates...' from 4 days ago. I agree that Rob's 3/Y split makes more sense than the % split given earlier by @Piloly on X. Thanks for the info re Panasonic 4680s. :)

Following on from my 2 previous posts: It seems like the first part of 2024 production will be heavily dependent on GF China whilst 4680 production is brought on line to facilitate production elsewhere. If China continues with (or exceeds) the high production levels seen in November this...

Following on from my previous post... IRA and cell constraints I believe it was @petit_bateau who commented some months ago that they felt Tesla was cell constrained for production expansion in Austin and Berlin. Together with worries about the general state of the economy it seems that there...

Predictions for the next few quarters seem to have quite a bit of uncertainty. This post is going to consider production capacity potential and will be followed by a second post addressing cell production (and IRA impacts on US pricing). Production Capacity I have not seen any discussion of...

Sorry, this average temperature for thermal equilibrium is not a good way to think about it as it does not represent what Starship will experience. Firstly it is ignoring any radiative inputs from the Earth and secondly it assumes heat absorbed on the hot side of the craft is somehow transported...

That is why I specifically referred to the existing thermal blanket and tiles used on Starship - they are designed to withstand launch. I did not claim that it reduced the total exposure (because as you say, that would be completely incorrect). What it does is it reduces the heat transferred to...

You seem to envisage a sunshade which is mounted away from the ship, as is the case with JWST and a number of other telescopes. My understanding is that the reason for having a shade distanced from the surface of the telescope is to reduce distortion of the telescope hence improving...

JWST is not really a good baseline as it has a far more benign and directionally constant thermal loading together with lots of deep space to radiate to. Low earth orbit provides much larger thermal loads coming from a large arc which changes throughout the orbit. I am not that familiar with...

I think the intent was to fir the vacuums first, but does anyone know why? I would have thought that firing the sea level engines first would have still provided enough thrust for stage separation but would have been 'gentler' on the booster.

It will be similar to an F9 RTLS flight profile but without reentry burn - so the booster will fly back towards the launch site. If I remember correctly the target booster soft landing location for test flight 1 was around 25 miles from the launch site. This makes sense as SpaceX will be trying...

Quite a while since I was in the field but wouldn't a proxy server with a web cache provide similar functionality whilst avoiding the 'too many CDNs' problem?

My experience from complex projects in a different field is that if projects have a large degree of technical risk trying to contract using FFP may lead to the best providers declining to bid (and the company that does win the bid failing to deliver - a lose/lose situation). FFP works best in...

In addition it is likely to be far easier to get Starship rated for human flight with a staging method which is independent of the booster performing nominally.

I have a sneaking suspicion that at least some of the vehicles shown in inventory as 'Coming Soon' on the Tesla UK site are vehicles that are in transit from China. Are there similar vehicles shown as 'Coming Soon' on other Tesla European web sites?

Whilst the booster is at an angle to the vertical it is not at any significant angle to the direction of airflow post entry burn. Aerodynamic drag is not significant prior to entry burn. The booster orientation (and direction of the airflow) becomes closer to the vertical post entry burn as the...

Your justification for ads presumes that Tesla will need to drop prices to stimulate demand. My OP was asking the question 'Where (in which market) do we see evidence that there is a demand problem that needs to be addressed?' @Hiline refers to Model3 RWD in the US. It would seem that this...

So, where are Tesla going to advertise? In the US (where Gary Black is expecting a price increase because inventory is so low)? In China (where YTD sales are higher than ever and where no further significant production ramp is expected), or in Europe where the unofficial inventory figures have...

At present I simply reduce the previous quarter auto COGS/vehicle by 1% and the energy COGS/MWh by 2%. I started this approach with auto COGS several years ago and haven't checked how accurate the 1% is. Energy COGS seem quite erratic and I am guessing this is due to the fact that Megapack...

Difficult to see how Starship gets human rated with a separation mechanism that requires the booster to remain fully operational and controlled. It does not seem to have any fault tolerance.

Looking at the recent Gary Black Tweet about inventory in Europe I was struck by a couple of things: the inventory bounces about a bit but does not show any increasing trend although Gary says inventory remains high the peak level (early) in the quarter is less than 2% of quarterly sales. This...

Yes. They know the booster (and stage 0) work which is key. As most of the engines ignited I'm hopeful they will be able to solve the ignition issues without significant mods to either the engines or stage 0. Fixing the separation issue might be more difficult depending on the failure mode.

Just starting!

Waiting for it to start - 4 minutes late

Normal service is resumed :)

Yes. Hoping (guessing) this is thermal protection for re-entry. Feeling a bit happier/more confident having seen this.

So no post flight inspections for either Booster or Ship (or salvage of items such as the grid fins). Clearly confident of the level of instrumentation and data transmission. Presumably the planned flight order will give them the opportunity to test refuelling with an eye on the timelines for...

For RTLS the boostback burn does reverse the booster's direction of travel, otherwise how would it get back to the launch site? I assume that SpaceX will be trying to make the test flight as close to an RTLS profile as they think is safe (hence the landing in the Gulf) in order to provide data...

Wow, you and @mongo are asking me hard questions now! Re acoustic forces at launch I had not not considered them acting directly on the ship tiles due to the height of the booster and the deluge system being below the ship. However indirectly the acoustic loading will add to the 'vibration'...

Not sure why Scott thinks heat shield damage is most likely at launch approaching Max Q. That would only be the case if the damage mechanism is aero pressure related. Static fires have already seen damage occurring - not sure if this is due to structural distortion, plume impingement, poor...

Gary Black tweeted the info distributed by Tesla on consolidated analyst estimates. Delivery consensus is just over 420k with a standard deviation of 16k. Rob Maurer also quoted Piper Sandler as stating their view of 440k deliveries. It seems that China deliveries passed the previous record...

You don't get much closer than that - 3 seconds! Good to hear the vehicle seems undamaged.

5k/week now confirmed by Tesla on twitter

Yes. A little surprised that Mexico is being touted as the location that will be first to build the next gen car. Shanghai and/or Berlin would have seemed more sensible as the supply and distribution channels are already in place but permitting issues may have influenced the order.

Tesla needs to find buyers for the additional Berlin and Texas production - why the worry about the additional Berlin production and not the additional Texas production? If we assume that when fully ramped both Berlin Y and Texas Y production will be the same as Shanghai Y (13k/week) then the...

Just wanting to check I have understood your info: Normal operation is 5 days at 3 shifts a day = 15 shifts Long week is 5 days at 3 shifts a day plus half shift on Saturday = 15.5 shifts Have I got this right?