Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

I will say this - all things being equal (which obviously they are not at this point), Tesla will not be able to compete with Lucid if they continue to build cars in Fremont. Lucid is building their factory in Arizona I believe. As Elon stated a week ago, California workers have a sense of entitlement, and they simply don't have to work very hard (always some type of gov't safety net to catch them and they know it). Not to mention the higher labor costs. So, it's going to be hard for Tesla to compete in the long run if they continue to build cars in California.

There's no way Tesla could sell the CyberTruck at its stated prices if it were built in Fremont. I'm really anxious to see what happens to the price of the Y once it is being built in Texas. The paint quality will at least improve by a large amount.

You have way overestimated the impact of labor on auto building. Cali workers are doing fine, probably better motivated then 90% of union workers under the other makers. What a load of BS saying they don't need to work hard. That is insulting.

The biggest impact from being in CA is regulatory costs and hurdles. But having the talented Cali engineers so close to the place the cars are being built has a huge payoff as well. There are very good things about being in Texas, but 50% of it is just distributing the vehicles around the country better.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Lucid is on record stating the battery is much less than 130 kWh, and the range was determined by an independent testing company simulating the EPA test. Car and driver even vouched that the range is far greater than a Model S Long Range Plus (though they were not testing a production ready Lucid Air). They are revealing the car 9-9-2020 so I don't think they would be posting ridiculously high numbers at this point when the moment of truth comes in just a few short weeks.

What we really don't know yet is the real price. Lucid is saying, starts at $60k and tops out just over $100k. If so, that's inline with Tesla. Supposedly, they're $60k model will have 325 miles of range, and of course be eligible for the $7500 rebate. $52,500 will be very enticing if it truly gets an EPA rating of 325 miles. Only time will tell.

If that is true, than kudos to them...but everything is hear say and until they actually 'produce' a car capable of those specs with OTA updates, etc, it is still all 'in production'

 

[Tslynk67]

Did you misspell "cats"?

EDIT: Also be careful, wine can be almost as powerful as beer!

Nota been: wide has two small dogs, I have two cats, one of them a bit portly.

Yes, wine, don’t care for it much, but will drink in the absence of beer. Unfortunately I drink it as though it’s beer...

We’re in the Lot region, which is famous for the Malbec grape. Santé!

 

[Lessmog]

Nota been: wide has two small dogs, I have two cats, one of them a bit portly.

Yes, wine, don’t care for it much, but will drink in the absence of beer. Unfortunately I drink it as though it’s beer...

We’re in the Lot region, which is famous for the Malbec grape. Santé!

View attachment 575078

À la votre!

 

[Beltsbear]

Lucid is on record stating the battery is much less than 130 kWh, and the range was determined by an independent testing company simulating the EPA test. Car and driver even vouched that the range is far greater than a Model S Long Range Plus (though they were not testing a production ready Lucid Air). They are revealing the car 9-9-2020 so I don't think they would be posting ridiculously high numbers at this point when the moment of truth comes in just a few short weeks.

What we really don't know yet is the real price. Lucid is saying, starts at $60k and tops out just over $100k. If so, that's inline with Tesla. Supposedly, they're $60k model will have 325 miles of range, and of course be eligible for the $7500 rebate. $52,500 will be very enticing if it truly gets an EPA rating of 325 miles. Only time will tell.

Lucid is not going to be making a $60k version (before incentive). Yes, this is my opinion only, but it is not happening. They have stated the first versions will be over $100,000. The price could even be $120,000 for that initial 125kwh battery version. They are not going to be taking any substantial share from Tesla.

The cheap version will probably be $60k AFTER incentive, if they decide to cheapen their brand. I don't think they will even make it at all. They are going for a higher end market then Tesla.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

You have way overestimated the impact of labor on auto building. Cali workers are doing fine, probably better motivated then 90% of union workers under the other makers. What a load of BS saying they don't need to work hard. That is insulting.

I didn't say it - Elon did. Be mad at him. I've never been to Cali and don't run a business there, so I don't know. I was just going by what the guy who employs several thousand workers there stated. I sure haven't seen Tesla or SpaceX build a massive factory in California to leverage all those hard workers you speak of. Insulting or not, I'm just stating facts.

Oh, and I agree with you on the union workers comment. That's why Ford and GM are struggling so badly. But, where is it that BMW, Nissan, Kia, Mercedes, and many others have built their plants in the U.S? Hmmm. Not in California. Just another fact.

 

[SpeedGoat]

But Tesla did get a pretty fantastic deal on Fremont (thanks to those same factors you infer) and seems to have built a pretty fantastic and dedicated production team there too. So not all can be all that bad?

I understand housing and living costs are silly in that silly valley, but on the other hand there is plenty of smart people too.

Just as well I'm not Elon. On many counts.

Tesla paid only $42 million for the Fremont factory, they just paid more than twice that for the land alone in Texas.

Tesla paid only $42 million for Nummi plant

Being able to buy a shuttered factory was advantageous at the time and certainly Tesla has made full use of the proximity to tech companies, etc in CA, but that only goes so far. Trying to do large scale manufacturing in CA is just not a winning hand anymore.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Did Georgia lose a car factory, or why all the jealousy? Honestly don't get it. But not a USian.

Honestly, it may just be a U.S. thing, and not a California thing now. I'm afraid no one really knows how to work hard in the U.S. any more.

And I'm not sure why you guys keep questioning ME on this. I didn't say it - Elon did. Did you guys not see this?


'The energy in China is great. People there, there's like a lot of smart, hard working people. And they're really, they're not entitled, they're not complacent.
[emphasis added]

'Whereas I see in the United States increasingly much more complacency and entitlement especially in places like the Bay Area, and LA and New York.'

 

[WarpedOne]

You have way overestimated the impact of labor on auto building. Cali workers are doing fine, probably better motivated then 90% of union workers under the other makers. What a load of BS saying they don't need to work hard. That is insulting.

It can only be insulting, if it is true.
So, it's true.
Sad.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

You have way overestimated the impact of labor on auto building. Cali workers are doing fine, probably better motivated then 90% of union workers under the other makers. What a load of BS saying they don't need to work hard. That is insulting.

Again, be mad at Elon for insulting you - not me.

'The energy in China is great. People there, there's like a lot of smart, hard working people. And they're really, they're not entitled, they're not complacent.
[emphasis added]

'Whereas I see in the United States increasingly much more complacency and entitlement especially in places like the Bay Area, and LA and New York.'

 

[jerry33]

True, but if you have to stop and charge to make your destination at least one more time, you are far better off to slow down and avoid the stop (if possible). The time it takes to replenish the mileage lost from driving higher speeds far exceeds the time saved driving fast. The only time I drive fast is when I know I'm on my last leg (or have to make a long stop regardless). It's very hard for me to convince myself to do this, but it proves itself to be true every time. And obviously the situation changes depending on the trip. But, unless I had 500 or 600 miles of true range, slowing down usually gets me to my destination quicker than driving fast.

Where you live, that works because it appears (on the map) there's an SC every other block so you can always charge in the fast zone and skip charging stops. Here SCs are few and far between, so skipping is not really an option (in some cases you can spend a long time charging and skip but you'll lose more time than you'll gain by skipping). If you had a true 350-400 mile range at the posted speed limits (75 or 85 mph), it would be different. And if you're traveling east to west there's a minimum 15 mph headwind and often it's double that. The driving conditions in postage stamp size states are not the conditions in the central and western states.

 

[wipster]

Man, you didn't read the article did you? This is NOT Lucid stating their numbers - this is Car and Driver AND an independent testing company simulating the exact EPA test.

Also, can you PLEASE post a source for these things you post? Like "The fact that it has been prove/shown that a Raven S gets over 400 miles on a highway trip from SF to LA". I just like to confirm what I read on the internet - not sure if you know this or not, but people can post anything. It's best to confirm before believing.

Check out Car and Driver Georgia...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Again, be mad at Elon for insulting you - not me.

'The energy in China is great. People there, there's like a lot of smart, hard working people. And they're really, they're not entitled, they're not complacent.
[emphasis added]

'Whereas I see in the United States increasingly much more complacency and entitlement especially in places like the Bay Area, and LA and New York.'

Maybe we should stop and think that Elon made that comment to maybe 'motivate' people in CA and NY??

 

[Tim S]

Lots of arguing with a ghost here whenever the SP is down. I don't know who it is today but I will again recommend the Ignore button. There are some posters who's primary goal is to disrupt the forum.

 

[wipster]

Lucid is not going to be making a $60k version (before incentive). Yes, this is my opinion only, but it is not happening. They have stated the first versions will be over $100,000. The price could even be $120,000 for that initial 125kwh battery version. They are not going to be taking any substantial share from Tesla.

The cheap version will probably be $60k AFTER incentive, if they decide to cheapen their brand. I don't think they will even make it at all. They are going for a higher end market then Tesla.

We shall see what we see when we see it.

 

[printf42]

My take on Lucid:

They are legit, I wish them well, but they are not Tesla competition.

They had worked on the Air for so long, but kept pushing it because they constantly had to play catch up on Tesla, so that they don’t release the product with embarrassing specs and instantly kill the company.

They feel now they have to annonce it, since they sense after Battery Day they might not be able to catch up anymore and their product would be inferior in every way with double the price tag.

At least if they announce now they have one spec that’s better than today’s Tesla (almost certainly not anymore when they start production), so they can hope it would grab some attention. I suspect they are in need of funding to survive and is going to use this as kind of the last fight.

The Air will be used as FUD for a while then got forgotten except in the really niche market they hope to sell into.

Even if they succeed and survives, they won’t be competing Tesla in any meaningful way. Their top of the line product would probably be marginally better than Model S of the same year, but approaching or even exceeding Roadster price. And without battery they won’t be able to launch any Model 3&Y competition(no one would).

But in the further if they establish the brand well, they might become a Tesla customer to use Tesla skate board, who knows.

 

[Todd Burch]

Guess who? Coolidge, AZ
View attachment 575054

Both screenshots courtesy Jessica Kirsh Youtube.

The scale of that Nikola site is just immense!

 

[Singuy]

Lots of arguing with a ghost here whenever the SP is down. I don't know who it is today but I will again recommend the Ignore button. There are some posters who's primary goal is to disrupt the forum.

I don't know why it even matters. Lucid just needs to focus on one thing, which is to not go bankrupt. People here all of a sudden forgot there hasn't been a successful new car companies for the past 60 years until Tesla(and Tesla just barely made it) so I don't know why suddenly everyone thinks all these new start ups are all going to succeed with flying colors. Starting a new car company was stupid squared before, it's still stupid squared today. Elon just did it to move the transition and was fully prepared to lose all his investment.

So people need to take a chill pill. Stressing out over a company with a 99.5% chance of failing within 5 years is a waste of time.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Nota been: wide has two small dogs, I have two cats, one of them a bit portly.

Yes, wine, don’t care for it much, but will drink in the absence of beer. Unfortunately I drink it as though it’s beer...

We’re in the Lot region, which is famous for the Malbec grape. Santé!

View attachment 575078

FTFY: Nota bene:

 

[Tslynk67]

Not sure why so many people are getting their knickers in a twist over Lucid. We can’t get there by ourselves, we need other food EV’s to help with the Mission.

I, for one, hour Lucid did bring a compelling EV to market, with 500 miles range, even better.

Competition is good, very good, and right now there is none.