Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

View attachment 570099

I tend to highly doubt other automakers will take him up on the offer. Your brand becomes what? styling/design?

No one has signed up licensing use of the superchargers which he has offered in the past. This to me is more obvious and would greatly benefit some manufacturers competitiveness in the EV space.

I tend to think it is near certain some automaker(s) will choose to accept his offer rather than face oblivion. Put it in the bank. Just a matter of time.

When extinction forces corporations to shift into survival mode, prior sensibilities often go out the window. Same for people.

 

[Nocturnal]

So, when do we get the announcement that VW decided to not spend 4 billion to develop their own EV software and instead is paying Tesla 2 billion to license their software?

Oh, and immediately go short anyone like Nikola which is basically trying to do that by having others build their cars. Why partner with Nikola when you could just license proven Tesla tech?

Last year I said this would be a great outcome for Tesla and (IIRC) got buried in disagrees.

Same. I hope I was right.

 

[MC3OZ]

Last year I said this would be a great outcome for Tesla and (IIRC) got buried in disagrees.

It is likely that Battery Day changes everything in a way that even Long time Tesla Investors and Customers will struggle to understand..

Being no longer cell constrained changes everything and opens up lots of new possibilities..

Mostly it opens up the opportunity to really accelerate clean energy and transport in a way that will surprise everyone..

We all make assumptions that implicitly assume BAU, because it is very hard to see change coming and fully understand the rate of change.

 

[Yoona]

Come visit us in the Applying option strategy ... thread if you're interested in learning more.

Hi, where is the thread? Can't find it, thanks.

 

[Hock1]

Last year I said this would be a great outcome for Tesla and (IIRC) got buried in disagrees.

I've had the same experience here. Tesla cannot manufacture enough EVs quickly enough on their own to achieve their objective. The technology needs to be licensed to other OEMs.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Is Tesla expecting a Battery Surge?

I'm wondering the same thing. How did we go from being battery constrained to being able to build batteries for other companies?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I've had the same experience here. Tesla cannot manufacture enough EVs quickly enough on their own to achieve their objective. The technology needs to be licensed to other OEMs.

But, he didn't say the technology would be licensed. Read it again. He said the software would be licensed and the powertrains and batteries would be supplied. I've always thought that batteries were what was holding Tesla up from building and selling more cars. At least that's what Elon has said in the past.

 

[Mo City]

It is likely that Battery Day changes everything in a way that even Long time Tesla Investors and Customers will struggle to understand..

Being no longer cell constrained changes everything and opens up lots of new possibilities..

Mostly it opens up the opportunity to really accelerate clean energy and transport in a way that will surprise everyone..

We all make assumptions that implicitly assume BAU, because it is very hard to see change coming and fully understand the rate of change.

I sure hope so. For Elon it's all about the mission but even from the aspect of an investor, TSLA will explode the instant news comes out a legacy surrenders and agrees to purchase a significant number of power trains. Talk about easy money for Tesla. It would make whatever upside TSLA has even higher.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

While researching this, I just learned that Tesla also helped Toyota with the drive train on the short lived RAV4 EV back in 2013.

Really makes you wonder what the automotive world would look like now if Mercedes and Toyota hadn't pulled the rug out from underneath those vehicles.

The RAV4 EV was a California compliance car with about 115 miles of range. I tried to buy one in Georgia for my daughter but was told the warranty would not be honored - and no service would be provided. So, it's not like Toyota pulled the rug, there never was a rug - the car served a purpose and that was it.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I sure hope so. For Elon it's all about the mission but even from the aspect of an investor, TSLA will explode the instant news comes out a legacy surrenders and agrees to purchase a significant number of power trains. Talk about easy money for Tesla. It would make whatever upside TSLA has even higher.

Why would Tesla sell powertrains and batteries to a company, who must the turn around and make money on the car, when Tesla could just build the car and make ALL of the money? Selling batteries to other companies so THEY can make money is NOT a money maker for Tesla! It is helping the mission maybe, but NOT a money maker for Tesla. Unless of course, you are convinced that Tesla is demand constrained.

 

[GrandEnigma]

The RAV4 EV was a California compliance car with about 115 miles of range. I tried to buy one in Georgia for my daughter but was told the warranty would not be honored - and no service would be provided. So, it's not like Toyota pulled the rug, there never was a rug - the car served a purpose and that was it.

I was so hopeful for the future of EVs and the auto industry when these first compliance cars came out. Coming from a 10yr old Prius at the time I thought Toyota had a great future having partnered with Tesla. Nearly a decade later and even with the kickstart they had, they are still years behind.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Why would Tesla sell powertrains and batteries to a company, who must the turn around and make money on the car, when Tesla could just build the car and make ALL of the money? Selling batteries to other companies so THEY can make money is NOT a money maker for Tesla! It is helping the mission maybe, but NOT a money maker for Tesla. Unless of course, you are convinced that Tesla is demand constrained.

On the surface it may seem that way, but you can put whatever premium you like on a skateboard or battery pack.

 

[Hock1]

But, he didn't say the technology would be licensed. Read it again. He said the software would be licensed and the powertrains and batteries would be supplied. I've always thought that batteries were what was holding Tesla up from building and selling more cars. At least that's what Elon has said in the past.

I am not interpreting what Elon said or might have said. I am saying that the technology that separates Tesla from other car manufacturers, i.e.. OS, BMS and powertrains may have to be shared with selected competitors to achieve the mission.

Edit: Obviously at a significant profit.

 

[Mo City]

Why would Tesla sell powertrains and batteries to a company, who must the turn around and make money on the car, when Tesla could just build the car and make ALL of the money? Selling batteries to other companies so THEY can make money is NOT a money maker for Tesla! It is helping the mission maybe, but NOT a money maker for Tesla. Unless of course, you are convinced that Tesla is demand constrained.

You need to hit the reset button and listen to Elon.

Did anyone say sell power trains with no profit? Obviously the markup would be huge. Even with the huge markup, it would still be far less expensive for the legacy to buy from Tesla than build their own.

The margin for selling power trains by themselves could be 50-100%. What's not to like?

 

[Nocturnal]

You need to hit the reset button and listen to Elon.

Did anyone say sell power trains with no profit? Obviously the markup would be huge. Even with the huge markup, it would still be far less expensive for the legacy to buy from Tesla than build their own.

The margin for selling power trains by themselves could be 50-100%. What's not to like?

VW's budget for their 5 year EV plan is 66billion. That would be a lot of Tesla skateboards complete with software and still allow for nice margins at Tesla.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

You need to hit the reset button and listen to Elon.

Did anyone say sell power trains with no profit? Obviously the markup would be huge. Even with the huge markup, it would still be far less expensive for the legacy to buy from Tesla than build their own.

The margin for selling power trains by themselves could be 50-100%. What's not to like?

So, Tesla can make more money selling batteries than cars? That's what you believe?

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - early this morning: End game for oil? OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand

 

[Thekiwi]

This was quite the twitter exchange:

 

[Thekiwi]

Maybe the truly mass market ~$25k “model 2” Tesla, will In fact be a $10k-$15k 200-mile battery+Single motor skateboard Tesla supplies to other manufacturers at a $5k profit margin.

Would it be far easier & faster to churn out 5-10 million of those annually than it will be to build capacity for full assembly of that many vehicles?

 

[FrankSG]

Last year I said this would be a great outcome for Tesla and (IIRC) got buried in disagrees.

I've had the same experience here. Tesla cannot manufacture enough EVs quickly enough on their own to achieve their objective. The technology needs to be licensed to other OEMs.

I'm still skeptical about this licensing happening in the near term. The only way I see this making sense for Tesla, TSLA, and Tesla's mission is if Tesla has more batteries/powertrains than it can use itself.

With Tesla's current product line-up, I think vehicle demand outpaces today's supply by at least a couple of million vehicles. Looking at how quickly factories are going up, I also highly doubt that vehicle manufacturing is going to be that much of a bottleneck.

So in spite of Elon's tweet, I still don't see it happening in the near term. Elon being open to the idea doesn't mean it makes sense for Tesla to do this during the next couple of years.

And we haven't even talked about stationary storage yet. Tesla is currently at least partially reliant on outside suppliers for its batteries. I don't see why Tesla would sell its own cutting-edge batteries as long as its still buying batteries from the likes of CATL and LG Chem.

Maybe in the 2025-2030 time frame give or take a few years, but not in the next 2-3 years.

Autopilot is another story altogether and makes total sense. Not that Tesla needs more of a lead on the autonomy front (it's already Game, Set & Match), but every car manufacturer that signs up for Tesla Autopilot ensures even further than nobody will be able to compete with Tesla in the autonomy space. No reason for Tesla to say no to extra money in the form of licensing fees, and extra data in the form of miles driven by customers of the competition.