Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[skybluecgreen]

Option (B). The P&D derisked the Q3 downside fear that had been present through much of the quarter. It capped the potential upside, but IMHO the downside risk has been weighing a lot more on institutionals as of late. ER unlikely to be a profit but also constrained to not be a terrible loss, no demand problem, orders exceeding deliveries, and looking very good going into Q4.

Also, I'd add an option (D): technical traders. The stock has been in an upwards channel for a while, so when the stock dips down to the bottom of the channel, it encourages them to grab it up, expecting more upside. I personally think technical trading is hokum, but technical traders do exist, so...

One more thing to mention is that of people who want to be invested in the automotive space, most of the competition is looking increasingly terrible right now.

Hopefully modest q3 financials results have been priced in following the P&D #s. The q3 report will also bring guidance for q4. Maybe there is growing optimism for q4 profits that is helping the share price. I know Elon said he was fairly confident that q4 would be profitable. I wonder what our modellers here are thinking about the chance for and degree of q4 profits.

 

[Fact Checking]

March of 2018 Moody's downgraded Tesla's corporate bonds to "junk" in a FUD-laden opinion, to the cheer of the TSLAQ crowd.

Today Tesla meets all the requirements Moody's cited as a condition for the reversal of the downgrade: they are producing above 5k/week, they have plenty of cash, etc.

Does anyone know on what schedule and under what conditions Moody's is going to upgrade Tesla's bonds to investment grade again?

(Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that they are not part of the TSLAQ problem - in which case I guess "never" is the answer.)

 

[anthonyj]

Sold 25 shares at the open this morning. You’re welcome. Will sell another 25 tomorrow. I have so many that I lost count

 

[StealthP3D]

Does this mean Semi's are starting to be delivered?

Tesla Semi Electric Trucks Roll Into Frito-Lay Plant

No, it means journalism at many outlets has gone to hell in a handbasket.

 

[CalX]

Reverse FUD. I wonder if this article and bots had anything to contribute to the stock rise.
China's Tesla Pops As Q3 Deliveries Of Electric SUVs Jump 35%
https://www.investors.com/news/nio-stock-pops-q3-electric-suv-deliveries-jump/

 

[FreqFlyer]

People who can pull that sort of thing off fascinate me. Just owning a Tesla 3 (MSM so it's subtle) is already something I try to keep low key at work. I can't imagine rolling into work with it being bright yellow or full chrome.

This used to be a "thing" in the middle east.

 

[Antares Nebula]

In case you're wondering about the macro dump:

Mike Dorning on Twitter

BREAKING: Trump imposes visa bans on Chinese officials linked to the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang province, @nwadhams reports.

Edit: And trade talks start on Thursday.

 

[Christine69420]

Funny how it's the EV owners who are characterized as the "stubborn" ones, LOL!



I imagine there is a ferry? Does it take you to a place that is connected to the charging network?

No ferries to Svalbard. But freight ships and planes.

Yes I belive Finnmark EV owners must be stubborn. No charging infrastructure and far to drive between villages and towns. And enthusiastic.

 

[ggr]

I will not be surprised when the relationship between Panasonic and Tesla eventually ends. Then Tesla along with its recent acquisitions will likely be making their own next generation battery cells and packs more efficiently, effectively and exclusively for Tesla cars and storage batteries.

But losing Panasonic would be a disaster ... for Panasonic. I think Tesla's best strategy is to use their own battery manufacturing for the cutting edge products but to continue to use Panasonic and others for things like Power-things and non-plaid S/X, because they will really be able to squeeze Panasonic's margins.

 

[Cherry Wine]

In case you're wondering about the macro dump:

Mike Dorning on Twitter

BREAKING: Trump imposes visa bans on Chinese officials linked to the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang province, @nwadhams reports.

Edit: And trade talks start on Thursday.

Retaliation for the public rebuke of the public call / veiled threat to China to investigate Biden.

This could get quite ugly indeed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I understand what you're saying from the perspective of a dedicated Tesla bull. So many thing going right for Tesla now and so many near future catalysts, and the stock at sub 250. Never been a better time to buy. And I agree. But perception and reality are two different things.

I'm not talking about the *company* nor its bullish fan base. I'm talking about the *stock* and I'm talking amongst traders primarily and long term institutional investors secondarily. Without doubt sentiment remains negative among both these groups. Sure you have short term swing and day traders playing both sides, but I'm talking about the the bullish momentum traders. They won't step back into this stock until they see a definitive uptrend (like the break in 2017 when it broke above 280/300).

And institutional investors (except long time die hards like Ark, Ballie Gifford, etc.) bailed on the stock when it broke 250 support. They will not enter till they see a clear sign of a turn around, both in fundamentals and the stock. Believe me, if sentiment was positive, this stock would not be sitting where it is now.

Treating institutional investors as a cohort is a mistake. There are a broad range of institutional investors just like retail. Some super bullish, other super bearish, and everywhere in between.

 

[30seconds]

The TSLA price and volume pattern over the past two days suggests that one or more large investors are spreading out purchases as they try to quietly accumulate shares. Their reasoning could be anyone's guess.

hmmm, I wonder if some of the major Chinese investment funds are seeing what is going on with the Model 3 & GF3 locally and starting to accumulate

 

[ggr]

no.

I confess that I've been wondering the same thing. 15 semis delivered to a customer sounds a lot like early production to me. Why do you so confidently say "no"?

 

[StealthP3D]

Retaliation for the public rebuke of the public call / veiled threat to China to investigate Biden.

This could get quite ugly indeed.

Well, nobody can predict these things but I'm thinking this might lead Trump to capitulate and sign a trade deal. Of course, he will call it a beautiful win for America even though the Chinese have a strong upper-hand at this point and the deal is unlikely to be significantly better than what it was at the start of this whole boondoggle. Here's why I can see that happening:

Trump admin has signalled they will not cooperate with the impeachment inquiry
Recent polls show rising support for impeachment, particularly with republicans.

The rising support of republicans is probably tied to financial pain directly attributable to tariffs. If Trump doesn't fix the tariffs quickly, he will be impeached.

Simple as that. He might be impeached anyway but tariffs pretty much lead to impeachment. Trump doesn't have enough political capital to pull off any sort of extended tariffs. It's unpopular and damaging to not only Trump but also the republican party.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In case you're wondering about the macro dump:

Mike Dorning on Twitter

BREAKING: Trump imposes visa bans on Chinese officials linked to the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang province, @nwadhams reports.

Edit: And trade talks start on Thursday.

This is clearly the right thing to do when a country is committing genocide, but you just know that's not the reason it was implemented.

 

[EVNow]

In case you're wondering about the macro dump:

Mike Dorning on Twitter

BREAKING: Trump imposes visa bans on Chinese officials linked to the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang province, @nwadhams reports.

Edit: And trade talks start on Thursday.

I wonder whether this is in retaliation to NBC freeze. How will China respond ?

 

[mblakele]

I confess that I've been wondering the same thing. 15 semis delivered to a customer sounds a lot like early production to me. Why do you so confidently say "no"?

Here’s the reason I’d use:

https://www.modbee.com/news/business/article235736002.html

The zero-emission Tesla semis have yet to be used commercially. A prototype was on display showcasing a sleek, space-age exterior design and minimalist interior cabin. The new semis have a range of 300 to 500 miles and cost $150,000 to $180,000 each. Graham Carroll, with the Tesla Business Development semi program, said the trucks for Frito-Lay’s Modesto plant are expected to be delivered by late 2020.​

Late 2020 is still more than we knew before this news, I think.

 

[MP3Mike]

I confess that I've been wondering the same thing. 15 semis delivered to a customer sounds a lot like early production to me. Why do you so confidently say "no"?

I would start by looking at the source information: Frito-Lay Transforms California Production Site into First-of-its-Kind Showcase for Sustainability

Expected to be completed in 2021, the $30.8 million Modesto project

So ~2 years before they expect to be done. Maybe the 15 Tesla Semis will be received early in the project, but somehow I doubt it.

 

[AlMc]

I confess that I've been wondering the same thing. 15 semis delivered to a customer sounds a lot like early production to me. Why do you so confidently say "no"?

Here’s the reason I’d use:

https://www.modbee.com/news/business/article235736002.html

The zero-emission Tesla semis have yet to be used commercially. A prototype was on display showcasing a sleek, space-age exterior design and minimalist interior cabin. The new semis have a range of 300 to 500 miles and cost $150,000 to $180,000 each. Graham Carroll, with the Tesla Business Development semi program, said the trucks for Frito-Lay’s Modesto plant are expected to be delivered by late 2020.​

Late 2020 is still more than we knew before this news, I think.

In addition, the article said the 'project' will be complete in 2021.....So, no semis delivered at this point....and maybe not till 2021

 

[AlexS]

Biggest Battery In New England Is Unveiled In Nantucket