Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Indeed they do. Loss frequency and loss severity. How many times does one need to repeat actuarial calculations for liability in auto insurance. Loss severity in automated systems is higher than that of direct human operated systems in almost all cases. We persist in ignoring that!

I was unaware that loss severity statistics for automated systems were higher. That would be interesting to learn more about.

Would there be a balance point where the excess of costs due to severity could be outweighed by the reduced frequency of less severe incidents?

 

[EVWatcher]

One response from Chinese Owner. I find it interesting. Can anybody from here comment on this?

Boon
@booncooll

As a Chinese and a modelY car owner, Baidu is not a good choice. Amap is more trustworthy. Many Chinese Tesla owners need to install a mobile phone holder for their Tesla because they are not used to using Baidu Maps. Let’s use the Amap Map APP in the mobile APP. Amap Map is more accurate and easier to use than Baidu Map. But whether to use Amap or Baidu Map, ELON seems to have no choice.

When you drive a Tesla it uses Google maps but the interface is still the Tesla app. Same will be true of baidu maps in China.

 

[H Mak]

Front page of today's Telegraph

Tesla added nearly $64bn (£51bn) to its valuation after the EV giant took a step closer to launching self-driving cars in China.

The world’s largest electric vehicle maker jumped 12pc as trading began on Wall Street after it reached a data-sharing agreement with Chinese tech giant Baidu.

The tie-up, revealed during Elon Musk’s surprise visit to Beijing, will allow Tesla to use Baidu’s mapping and navigating systems on Chinese roads.

Sources told Reuters that the agreement will allow Tesla to roll out its “full self-driving” features in China, as the partnership will remove regulatory hurdles.

By signing the agreement with Baidu, Tesla will use one of 20 approved local suppliers of mapping and navigation systems in China, according to the Financial Times.

It will also help overcome Chinese laws forbidding domestic data from being transferred out of the country.

Removing this barrier was seen as a vital step for Tesla as it was being outflanked by Chinese rivals such as XPeng and Huawei Technologies, both of which have rolled out their own competitor software.

The jump in Tesla’s share price comes after the company has lost almost a third of its valuation over the past year, fuelled by concerns over its growth potential.

 

[2daMoon]

Engaging with trolls is like wrestling pigs in the mud. I do wonder though why they're still hanging out here rather than watching their short positions getting wrecked. Oh look, the SP is up another dollar as I'm typing this post.

I feel dirty...

 

[Artful Dodger]

164 million shares sold by halftime, just sayin' ...

 

[Usain]

Shall we refer to the $140 local bottom of last week as the “Gerber-Black” bottom?

Well, Ron Baron sure looks like a genius. He called "bottom" at the bottom.

 

[Mengy]

Nice volume on TSLA today.

 

[Usain]

How do you know they won't have to throw it out away again?

I explained how we know back in November. (actually Karpathy explained it better)

They key was having enough compute to build an end-to-end system. This is something Tesla didn't have until recently.

 

[ggies07]

Is everyone (as well as the lurkers) who do not have FSD watching every vid from Whole Mars Catalog? Well ya should! I only watch his commentary ones though, as it gives me a better understanding of v11 to now since I've never had FSD. These vids have made me bullish and allowed me to accept Elon's "balls to walls" direction. And in about two weeks I'm going to upgrade my 2018 M3 to HW3 so I can help the company gain real world data. My wife doesn't want me to spend the money, but I feel as an investor I must.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes. DMV's definition is quite clear - now I obviously can't guarantee Waymo is not gaming the system, but I think they'd be open to a lot of litigation if they would and the benefits seem inexistent. Any deactivation of the autonomous mode counts as a disengagement. And they're obligated to report if the disengagement was caused by the remote operator

227.50 - https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/adopted-regulatory-text-pdf/

What if the software allows a remote operator to assist without disengaging autonomous mode?

Would whoever is managing Waymo's published data play on semantics as safely as they could to promote the appearance of success?

More to the point, what company would not?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Actually that is quite high to me, as Erie insurance for my Model 3 is $53/month.

$49 USD/month for my Model Y AWD with full coverage, but I'm a veteran. But I do get a another discount for paying annually.

 

[Musskiah]

Your attitude is certainly hilarious. And judging by your predictions, what you're considering "a base case" is certainly incredibly optimistic. I wonder what happens if I go 3-4-5 years back and look at the time estimates of people like yourself, of when getting FSD will be a no-brainer and any company that doesn't have it will be doomed.

As time goes on, the timeline for the FSD singularity gets compressed. Thus, someone who is optimistic today in this regard will be much more likely to be correct than someone who was optimistic 3-4-5 years ago. After periods where pessimism wins out (recent 3 years let's say), extreme optimism is bound to rise to the occasion. This is how technological adoption works when rising out of the Trough of Disillusionment. Tell you what, let's talk Spring 2027 (3 years form now, if you are still around then) and see where we are at. We will see how the OEMs have fared; and if Waymo (as you suggest) is the market leader with OEMs adopting their hardware/software suite or if, rather, Tesla has chosen the correct path. Place your bets...

 

[Usain]

Not anytime in the foreseeable future.
Loss frequency goes down.
Loss severity goes up.
Just compare a superb level 2 with, say;
-Large commercial aircraft have very, very rare accidents. Even the infamous B737Max has had an excellent safety record. But, when one happens just look at teh enormous catastrophic costs.
-Maritime shipping has very low accident rates. Just catch fire on a car carrier and lose countless Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche and other VAG vehicles or;
-Inagine wiping out a major highway bridge.
The moral is LOSS SEVERITY is a huge thing as loss frequency declines.
Insurance rates will not decline in any substantial way so long as loss severity reigns, and that has rarely ever happened in any category.

Why would FSD cause loss severity go up for car crashes? I don't understand that logic at all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Two weaks maybe

FTFY.

 

[Musskiah]

None. I don't think anyone is on the "cusp" (within 2 years) of solving autonomous driving globally. Arguably both Waymo and Tesla make money from their autonomous driving systems, but only Waymo actually makes money only when the system is autonomous. If I were to have to choose one, I'd choose Waymo. I think objectively is impossible for Tesla to be able to take the liability for the system in a diverse enough set of circumstances with their current sensor stack.

My thesis is a short thesis based on Tesla's stock price. Is not a short on the company's future, which I actually like (as I said before). And I think Elon (and the people around him) are amazing strategists. But that doesn't change how much FSD success is already priced into Tesla's stock price. It's an unbalanced risk. I also think they won't make any meaningful progress over the next two years on FSD (beyond setting up a limited L4 pilot programme akin Waymo's in some geography). Car sales are a losing battle without FSD due to compressing margins.

II'll enjoy watching the "short thesis" combust

 

[jerry33]

Why would FSD cause loss severity go up for car crashes? I don't understand that logic at all.

My understanding of the logic is that if you remove most all of the fender bender severity accidents, the only accidents you have are the 70+ mph head on collision type accidents. Using the airline industry as a base line isn't all that relevant for vehicles because airplane crashes tend to kill everyone on board. Not all vehicle accidents, regardless of autonomous driving or not, will be high severity accidents. It might even be the opposite where severe accidents are far less common than minor accidents.

 

[Knightshade]

Is everyone (as well as the lurkers) who do not have FSD watching every vid from Whole Mars Catalog?

You really shouldn't... his vids are arguably the least honest on the topic of all the influencer testers.

He was posting videos claiming FSD drove him to his favorite restaurant without interventions before fsdb was even a thing.

As he often does the video was greatly sped up.... when you slowed it down you could clearly see at every intersection he was manually making the turn then rengaging since FSD at that time didn't DO turning on city streets.

When someone in the comments pointed it out he said he meant any "unexpected" interventions, and manually making turns was expected, so he stood by the video title.


If you want a vastly more realistic version of where FSD is stick to folks like Chuck Cook.... who just recently posted his famous UPL testing on 12.3.6 and it's... not good....especially for a situation where Tesla had been directly training on that exact intersection for months and months now.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Post got deleted SMH. Fine. Stop responding to obvious short sellers repeating tired tropes... not even decent discussions. There are people here who have conservative estimates and others who are bearish on Tesla AND explain their reasoning. I don't agree with most of what they say but they bring something to the table.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Surely $200 will be a ceiling today? At this rate it looks like it's going to charge through

Profit taking took over when the share price reached a $60 gain over the low reached 2 weeks ago. I look for wedgies to sell the SP down to the upper BB today. Because they're smart like that.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

People are getting way too personal. The investor thread is a place to respectfully discuss different viewpoints of Tesla’s future. It helps to hear from people who disagree with your own thesis. Investors, non-investors and even shortsellers are welcome, as long as the discussion is based on arguments, not personal attacks.

If you don’t agree with someone, answer with stronger arguments. If you loathe someone, use the ignore function (and don’t announce it in public). For those who only visit the investor section: it is a haven of tranquility and pro-Tesla views compared to the rest of TMC.