Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

The only threat to Tesla that exists is if BEVs do not take off.

I'm pretty sure that moment has passed.

 

[kbM3]

The only threat to Tesla that exists is if BEVs do not take off. If we do not transition to sustainable energy. That is Tesla's mission. It is not to be #1 in everything it does... not to have the highest profit margins... highest revenues... highest car sales... etc. etc.. it is simply to accelerate the transition. If they do not cause all the other manufacturers to come along, that is a fail. Mazda is an example. Complete fail at the moment, every one of their cars comes with a fossil-fuel-burning combustion engine in it. But most other manufacturers are following along and starting to produce BEVs.

Tesla has said many times they can't do it alone, they need the other manufacturers to produce BEVs simultaneously. It should not be deemed a "threat" if some other manufacturer is selling nore BEVs than Tesla. Ultimately, humanity benefits.

I don’t think that’s true. My own thesis is that Tesla’s technological dominance results in huge cost advantages and that means they will have higher profits than have been the case in the gas area. If that’s not the case and the EV market ends up being very competitive, then Tesla’s eventual profits might not be that much greater than twice of Toyota’s in their heyday. And their present market cap is more than twice Toyota’s.

I know Tesla has FSD, Optimus, Energy…. But selfishly I want their auto margins high enough to justify gigantic market cap even before those considerations.

 

[AndrewZ]

I'm pretty sure that moment has passed.

Well we’re still in the early days really, EVs as a proportion of total vehicle sales are still pretty low much less as a proportion of all vehicles (and adding in trucks and commercial vehicles) on the road today. Even after all this growth and being the leader by far, Tesla needs to 10x production from here.

By the time we get to that place, more Teslas will be selling in a single quarter than have been sold total to date over the last 15 years.

 

[gtrplyr1]

if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?

Obviously, that could prove to be a nice catalyst for SP

 

[uscbucsfan]

if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?

At one point he said that, but he changed to "end of the year". I'm sure a few will be delivered to employees at the CT event, which was originally in "late Q3", it hasn't been announced, yet.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?

Yes but then he was asked about it on the Q2 earnings call and he only said deliveries before the end of the year. I think a decent part of the sell off post earnings was the disappointment in that Elon wouldn't confirm that deliveries would take place by end of Sept.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yes but then he was asked about it on the Q2 earnings call and he only said deliveries before the end of the year. I think a decent part of the sell off post earnings was the disappointment in that Elon wouldn't confirm that deliveries would take place by end of Sept.

The two things that he continues to be firm on is that mass production won't begin until 2024 and the ramp will be extremely slow.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Well we’re still in the early days really, EVs as a proportion of total vehicle sales are still pretty low much less as a proportion of all vehicles (and adding in trucks and commercial vehicles) on the road today. Even after all this growth and being the leader by far, Tesla needs to 10x production from here.

By the time we get to that place, more Teslas will be selling in a single quarter than have been sold total to date over the last 15 years.

I don't necessarily disagree with this sentiment, but it is definitely the case that there are regional differences. In the SF bay area, I can't help but notice how many new MY and M3 are around. On my walk yesterday, on one block (admittedly not representative) I counted 9 Teslas, 3 of which were plainly purchased within the last few months (paper plates still). I've been "Elon" about my prediction about how quick the tipping point will come and I know Iowa isn't like this, but the IRA is injecting a ton of energy into adoption. I'll be highly interested to see what the numbers are for Q3 and 4 for EV's nationally. I predict upside surprise.

 

[AndrewZ]

I don't necessarily disagree with this sentiment, but it is definitely the case that there are regional differences. In the SF bay area, I can't help but notice how many new MY and M3 are around. On my walk yesterday, on one block (admittedly not representative) I counted 9 Teslas, 3 of which were plainly purchased within the last few months (paper plates still). I've been "Elon" about my prediction about how quick the tipping point will come and I know Iowa isn't like this, but the IRA is injecting a ton of energy into adoption. I'll be highly interested to see what the numbers are for Q3 and 4 for EV's nationally. I predict upside surprise.

Yeah it definitely varies by area, California of course being the Tesla epicenter.

IRA and such is good but even just talking production, right now we're running at 1.8-2m/year and the goal is 20m/year. I haven't manually added up numbers from the quarterly/annual reports, but Google results say just over 4.5m vehicles have been shipped from 2008 to July 2023 so that's less than one quarter's production from the final goal.

 

[phoggy123]

It would be pretty awesome if the Highland 3/Y and the CT using M3P could do some V2H action. Especially given the new meter based Gateway, this would be the perfect low cost solution for home backup power....

I have a 22 model Y and a 22 model 3 LFP. It's so much nicer with the LFP having the whole battery every day and not having any care in the world as to state of charge. I have 270 on a full charge on the 3 and around 303 on the Y now. so it's not that big of a difference.

 

[Artful Dodger]

if memory serves, Elon announced that we might get some deliveries of the cybertruck at the end of Q3. Does that sound correct?

Elon Musk announces Tesla Cybertruck delivery event in third quarter of 2023 | The Verge (Apr 19, 2023)

Elon Musk announces Tesla Cybertruck delivery event in third quarter of 2023

It’s been over three years since the Cybertruck was announced.

www.theverge.com

 

[Motor Mouth]

Yeah it definitely varies by area, California of course being the Tesla epicenter.

IRA and such is good but even just talking production, right now we're running at 1.8-2m/year and the goal is 20m/year. I haven't manually added up numbers from the quarterly/annual reports, but Google results say just over 4.5m vehicles have been shipped from 2008 to July 2023 so that's less than one quarter's production from the final goal.

It is totally fair to question whether Tesla gets to 20 million/year on whatever schedule is posed. It all starts, however, with meeting or exceeding 1.8m/year this year. So far, so good it seems to me.

 

[MartinAustin]

Not sure about layoffs but they just announced final specs on another mass money losing vehicle

View attachment 963261

Hmmm they left off "CCS2 charging" from the feature list

 

[Artful Dodger]

At one point he said that, but he changed to "end of the year". I'm sure a few will be delivered to employees at the CT event, which was originally in "late Q3", it hasn't been announced, yet.

What Elon actually said on the Q2 Conf. Call was this:

"With regard to our Cybertruck, we continue to build our release candidates of the Cybertruck on our final production line in Austin... And we can’t wait to start delivering it later this year."​

Elon said "later this year" but you remember "end of the year". Nothing wrong with expressing your opinions, but not in representing them as Elon quotes (notably w/o a link).

A neutral take on Elon's statement (IMO), is that Tesla has not yet set a date for the Cybertruck delivery event, or they are not yet ready to announce it. From Joe Tegtmeyer's Aug 4th video, Giga Texas seems to be producing 1 or 2 Cybertrucks per day: Cybertruck Supercharging from 27:38 to 28:46 (another drone pilot spotted 2 Cybertrucks together)

Cybertruck Supercharging! W side Construction Progress! 4 August 2023 | Joe Tegtmeyer

The Model 3 Delivery Event at Fremont in July 2017 involved the handover of about 30 cars, mostly to employees and company Officers/Directors. It they intend a similar scale event for the first Cybertruck deliveries, they could build enough examples in 3-6 weeks.

Downtime on the production line in its very early stages is difficult to predict, so it's not surprising that Tesla wasn't ready to announce the CT delivery date during the Q2 Conf. Call back on July 19th (just too many unknowns at that point).

 

[AndrewZ]

It is totally fair to question whether Tesla gets to 20 million/year on whatever schedule is posed. It all starts, however, with meeting or exceeding 1.8m/year this year. So far, so good it seems to me.

I would expect that 20m to arrive and am definitely not questioning that goal myself, I'm really just suggesting that we're still in the early days in terms of that final goal both for Tesla and for the EV movement as a whole.

Still the early days, slightly less early than the even-earlier days that preceded today but early days nonetheless

 

[GOVA]

AI DRIVR's video on HW3 vs HW4 differences.

 

[Cobbler]

Elektrek:
Germany’s top automaker just took the top EV position after squeaking by Tesla in electric car registrations through July. Volkswagen leads the German EV market with its new electric van gaining momentum.

But let's have a look at Autoscout24.de:
More than 1800 Volkswagen EV cars, built in 2023, are for sale immediately at Stealerships in Germany!

Volkswagen Gebrauchtwagen kaufen - AutoScout24

Hier finden Sie aktuelle Volkswagen Gebrauchtwagen Angebote bei AutoScout24, dem europaweit größten Online-Automarkt.

www.autoscout24.de

Tesla? Only 94

Tesla Gebrauchtwagen kaufen - AutoScout24

Hier finden Sie aktuelle Tesla Gebrauchtwagen Angebote bei AutoScout24, dem europaweit größten Online-Automarkt.

www.autoscout24.de

So someone has been seriously stuffing their dealerships to get those sales numbers up!

 

[NicoV]

What I meant about OAuth was, that I'd like a proper OAuth flow with proper permissions management (i.e., I'd like to be able to grant only read-only access in a convenient fashion) and documented and supported API, versus the current method with TeslaFi and such where we have to basically do the OAuth ourselves and copy and paste the resulting token.

Think of things like when you connect your Google account to something, and Google comes up and says this app wants to connect to your account, here's all the things it can do, etc. I'd like to have that user friendliness and transparency, versus the archaic incantations we must currently use. The Standard Fleet service basically does this, and I'd like to see all the TeslaFi and similar sites transition to this officially supported API.

I’m pretty sure the TeslaFi and similar sites also want this (they don’t want to be responsible for any credentials abuse). The question is: how do you get this from Tesla? ”Standard Fleet” currently seems to have a privileged relation with Tesla.

 

[Big Time]

Elon will most likely schedule a cyber window smashing event in two weeks

 

[petit_bateau]

Well we’re still in the early days really, EVs as a proportion of total vehicle sales are still pretty low much less as a proportion of all vehicles (and adding in trucks and commercial vehicles) on the road today. Even after all this growth and being the leader by far, Tesla needs to 10x production from here.

By the time we get to that place, more Teslas will be selling in a single quarter than have been sold total to date over the last 15 years.

EV sales globally are now 19% of all auto sales, as of mid-2023 and up from 13% at end 2022.

(of that 19% some 13% are BEV and 6% PHEV from memory)

There is only a 5x left from here. I don't know where you get the 10x calc from.

It is getting remarkably close to game over.