Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

FSD 10 tonight!

I know what I'm doing tonight!

(I'm married, so yes, it will be me watching Youtube videos of the FSD release late at night, alone.)

 

[henchman24]

The whole market is diving... triple witching next week and 20th anniversary of 9/11 has some risk coming off the table across the market.

Trying to get one more weekly before close....

 

[Todd Burch]

Any new-ish investors worried about the rapid drop at the end of the day: That's because volume is low. We'll see a similar rapid rise Monday.

Want to make a few quick bucks? Buy now.

 

[Yoona]

So we do this without headlines now? lol I was away from computer for a few hours. What did I miss?

 

[Discoducky]

What the heck, we going for 730?

$735 = max-pain seems like the target.

I rolled my cc's and they are all up +25% in a matter of minutes. Thinking of BTC, but still thinking that max-pain will hold for next week around $710 when it recalc's 4am pacific monday morning.

 

[Todd Burch]

The whole market is diving... triple witching next week and 20th anniversary of 9/11 has some risk coming off the table across the market.

Indices are down less than 1%. Let's not use the term "diving", that's a bit dramatic. It's fine, once volume picks up here soon, this manipulation will be a thing of the past. Until volume drops off again next summer

 

[Curt Renz]

It's the middle of a Jewish holiday season, and the 9/11 20th anniversary comes tomorrow. Wall Street is in New York where a lot of people are on edge, while the pandemic and hurricanes do not help. Meanwhile, weekly options expired today, and big option writers with the ability to manipulate shares might have taken advantage. This may have affected not only TSLA, but also the macro market.

 

[StealthP3D]

Other members of investing community feel that Cathy's gravitas has its own gravity field, and she's able to attract significant cash inflows into her ETFS. In some stocks she's moving the markets single-handedly. I am skeptical about her other EV/tech investments. Upon closer inspection, specifically arkg, the returns have been slightly better than the Russel 2000. TSLA is diversified enough and has a positive feedback loop going on, sucking in the talent, a competitive advantage of true intellect.

ARKG performance is "slightly better" than the Russel 2000 Index? I'm thinking you are using an unrealistically short holding period for that comparison. I bought ARKG on October 24, 2019 and it's up an incredible 194.77% since then while the Russel 2000 is up $43.83% over the same period. While the Russel 2000 is a diversified index fund, ARKG is a fund dedicated to a very narrow slice of the economy, genomics, so it can be expected to have a lot of variation or volatility over a multi-year period. The two should only be compared over much longer, multi-year periods (if at all). Two totally different animals.

I've almost tripled my investment with ARKG in under two years and that's with my first foray into any index fund since I started investing over 30 years ago! I was thinking I would be happy with 15% a year!

 

[henchman24]

Indices are down less than 1%. Let's not use the term "diving", that's a bit dramatic. It's fine, once volume picks up here soon, this manipulation will be a thing of the past. Until volume drops off again next summer

Apple had other reasons, but was down 3.2%. Google down 2%. Roku down 3%. Square is down 1.5% Even Microsoft who was up about a percent ~2 hours ago ended a half down a half percent. Tesla always tends to have a multiple on gains and losses, but the dive at the end was market wide.

 

[Bunky]

The whole market is diving... triple witching next week and 20th anniversary of 9/11 has some risk coming off the table across the market.

Trying to get one more weekly before close....

What is bearish about the 20th anniversary of 9/11?

Seems like we came conveniently right down to *checks notes* max pain

 

[stealthyc]

I can't believe some people don't think Max Pain is a thing.

Much like how @StarFoxisDown! was close to right last week and wrong this week despite apparent conviction, you can be right with max pain on some weeks and wrong on others. If you look at the history of how often the stock price ended effectively right on max pain on a friday over the past months I believe it will be infrequent. You are just having confirmation bias right now. That is not to say that the option interest has no bearing at all, but max pain is not a magical value that the stock hits every week.

 

[phantasms]

View attachment 707606

See my original post! lol

 

[Curt Renz]

What is bearish about the 20th anniversary of 9/11?...

It rattles some people, especially those fearing a repeat on the anniversary. The Afghanistan withdrawal might have heightened some of this concern. So it may have inspired a risk-off attitude before the weekend.

 

[phantasms]

$735 = max-pain seems like the target.

I rolled my cc's and they are all up +25% in a matter of minutes. Thinking of BTC, but still thinking that max-pain will hold for next week around $710 when it recalc's 4am pacific monday morning.

Exactly. Considered closing out my $760 for next week but then remembered this whole thing is rigged. Let’s continue to pick up the pennies the robbers drop as they run away.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Much like how @StarFoxisDown! was close to right last week and wrong this week despite apparent conviction, you can be right with max pain on some weeks and wrong on others. If you look at the history of how often the stock price ended effectively right on max pain on a friday over the past months I believe it will be infrequent. You are just having confirmation bias right now. That is not to say that the option interest has no bearing at all, but max pain is not a magical value that the stock hits every week.

I look at Options volume just a much as Open Interest to determine where I think the actual price point MM's want. The max pain calculated number can been easily be skewed by open interest. Looking at the options volume, I still think the target was over 750 but below 760.

This to me was a old fashioned bear raid and as we've seen many times before, MM's are eager to cap rises in the stock but don't care nearly as much to prop the stock up when it's facing selling pressure.

 

[henchman24]

What is bearish about the 20th anniversary of 9/11?

Seems like we came conveniently right down to *checks notes* max pain

It is psychological based on a fear of something happening on an important anniversary while there is some destabilization happening. I'm not saying it is logical, just saying there are thoughts out there to that extent.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1436417095395328005

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA trading in the range of $700 - $760 based on historic growth pattern.
This puts TSLA on track to reach ATH of $900 by end of '21 / early '22. This will coincide with start of production for Giga Austin and Giga Berlin to form a base in the share price / valuation.
I can live with that.
Buying and holding is easy peasy.

 

[Todd Burch]

Much like how @StarFoxisDown! was close to right last week and wrong this week despite apparent conviction, you can be right with max pain on some weeks and wrong on others. If you look at the history of how often the stock price ended effectively right on max pain on a friday over the past months I believe it will be infrequent. You are just having confirmation bias right now. That is not to say that the option interest has no bearing at all, but max pain is not a magical value that the stock hits every week.

As someone who has been watching the stock price daily for many years now--and especially over the last few weeks--it has not been infrequent. In fact, it has been almost every week.

 

[FireMedic]

We were (mostly) all advising a member here to buy his shares in the last 30 minutes before close on Friday…so; not surprised.

However, it is always impressive how effective these MM’s are at hitting their targets. If only they could use their power for good instead.

 

[Bunky]

9/11 rattles some people, especially those fearing a repeat on the anniversary. The Afghanistan withdrawal may have heightened some of this concern. So it may inspired a risk-off attitude.

I understand that theory, but I don't think 'the market' suddenly realized at 3pm today that tomorrow is 9/11 and that we withdrew from Afghanistan a couple of weeks ago, and now it was time to sell.