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Panasonic can slowly, and in a very non-innovative way, make a clone in 12 months. I agree it feels like they are not inclined to do so, but are we saying that the business model is to act as the marketing front end to Panasonic?
Someone help me out. I am sure Tesla is doing a great job with the software/firmware, liquid cooling/heating, modules, case, testing, marketing etc. But the competitive advantage here is the cost/kWh here which is a characteristic of Panasonics cells or maybe even Samsung or another. They are essentially taking a product from Panasonic (even the GF output is still kind of Pansonic's output) and wrapping it in a module and marking it up and selling it.
Now there is nothing wrong with that, everyone has suppliers and just about any business can be described that way. But, here is the question, why didn't panasonic do this? What keeps them from doing it even now? Particularly since Elon keeps saying he doesn't care about competition. Tesla doesn't have any cell output itself. This announcement strikes me a little bit like "look how great Panasonic's products are, we created this great application for it".
Thoughts?
For those in the know, $250/kWh is nothing less than earth shattering. Nobody can touch this price. Everybody will want to install grid storage at this price. A Texas utility, Oncor, planning to install 10GWh of storage in 2018, subject to the regulatory approval. Just to make sure the scale registers here, this is 2/3 of the GF yearly production, planned in 2018. As part of the regulatory approval Oncor commissioned study that supposed to justify the expense ($5.2B). The study was based on $500/GWh installed price. Tesla was the front runner as a supplier of this storage, and supplied their 400KWh battery for the currently running pilot project.
Elon's revelation on the pricing for grid storage pretty much cements this deal. We might hear about first year or two of the GF stationary storage output already reserved...
We are on the cusp of the historic squeeze...
See my previous post on this for more details/links
What a wicked day! Sold at 230 and bought back at 224.68. Today worked out amazing except for the nerves!
I don't believe we will hear from many (any?) analysts before the ER/CC as they do not want to build out a model without more facts about margins/income stream potential which should come from the ER/CC. I hope that this, and some new info at the shareholder's meeting, will give significant positive momentum to TSLA.
I added to trading shares today at $221 and added another 35 June 19 270s to an already sizeable position 'gambling' that we do see some upward movement.
interesting question Austin. I think Gtoffo's post #5966 is the reason Tesla has such a large opportunity. What's more, Tesla is unusual in its level of risk taking. Tesla is mission oriented with an entrepreneurial/engineer leader. Most companies large enough to make a GigaFactory size move have professional career management, and are more "keep the ship from crashing on my watch" oriented (or worse) more so than mission oriented. I'd expect they'll build GFs when they see it's worked for Tesla... but it will take most corporations several years to create plans, get a BOD to sign off on such plans, and build the GF before it's producing large volumes.
For those in the know, $250/kWh is nothing less than earth shattering. Nobody can touch this price. Everybody will want to install grid storage at this price. A Texas utility, Oncor, planning to install 10GWh of storage in 2018, subject to the regulatory approval. Just to make sure the scale registers here, this is 2/3 of the GF yearly production, planned in 2018. As part of the regulatory approval Oncor commissioned study that supposed to justify the expense ($5.2B). The study was based on $500/GWh installed price. Tesla was the front runner as a supplier of this storage, and supplied their 400KWh battery for the currently running pilot project.
Elon's revelation on the pricing for grid storage pretty much cements this deal. We might hear about first year or two of the GF stationary storage output already reserved...
We are on the cusp of the historic squeeze...
See my previous post on this for more details/links
I get that argument. Tesla is brave were Panasonic is timid, which I accept. But once TM proves that there IS a large market there is no fear and no reason to be timid. Trying to understand the "moat". We periodically ask this question about the Model S too. it goes like this: "anyone can take laptop cells, wrap a car around it and make a tesla killer". Our standard answer for that is "That is true. But they WON'T because they would have to compete with their ICE lineup and make billion dollar investments in lines and battery capacity. They cannot get serious about competition without invalidating their current business model". I accept that for cars and it seems to be playing out with each passing quarter with no serious interest from other automakers. But that moat doesn't work for the energy storage market. Once TM creates the market, it would be no big deal for other battery makers to enter the market. Now that is fine, the market is vast, and it won't really matter. Unless Panasonic does it. which they should...
Edit:
Ok, let me answer myself. If other cell makers do it, that is fine because the market is vast and TM will welcome the competition. Panasonic has little reason to screw its biggest customer since they make their margin on the cells and trying to capture TM's margin too is probably not worth killing the golden goose.
If the battery takes off
we will be needing Gigafactory II and III real quick. When will these be revealed?
Anyone scouting sites? Can this be financed by Tesla?
"Open Patents" does not mean you get the engineering to implement them.
If you believe Panasonic can build it, then you think that Tesla has a team that any other company can get.
Maybe that's true, but it doesn't appear so.
Someone help me out. I am sure Tesla is doing a great job with the software/firmware, liquid cooling/heating, modules, case, testing, marketing etc. But the competitive advantage here is the cost/kWh here which is a characteristic of Panasonics cells or maybe even Samsung or another. They are essentially taking a product from Panasonic (even the GF output is still kind of Pansonic's output) and wrapping it in a module and marking it up and selling it.
Now there is nothing wrong with that, everyone has suppliers and just about any business can be described that way. But, here is the question, why didn't panasonic do this? What keeps them from doing it even now? Particularly since Elon keeps saying he doesn't care about competition. Tesla doesn't have any cell output itself. This announcement strikes me a little bit like "look how great Panasonic's products are, we created this great application for it".
Thoughts?
Gap fill next week into blowout ER like Causa said and vgrin's data confirms, more confident than I have been in a while. Tense to be sure!
n the meantime, Solar City sells just their existing battery system that is only useful for grid outage.
And the floodgate opens... Edison International teams up with Tesla for battery storage projects, with two commercial projects that expected to be in place in 2015.
No. Daily cycled battery could earn some $ by buying cheaper 10kWh at night time and lower consumption at peak rate by 10kW/h.
Will economics of new Tesla PowerWall product will work for you?